# PROJECT MANAGEMENT Technique



## m_halawa (6 يناير 2007)

1. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Analysis	
PERT Duration Estimate = (P + 4M + O) / 6
Where:
P = Pessimistic Duration Estimate
M = Most Likely Duration Estimate
O = Optimistic Duration Estimate
♦ Used when a task has a great amount of uncertainty
♦ By creating 3 distinct estimates (P, M & O) and using the above
formula to calculate your working estimate, you have factored in
the uncertainty
♦ Final estimates will be appropriate should your tasks come in
with a normal distribution of variation
SD = (P - O) / 6
Where:
SD = Standard Deviation
TV = [ (P – O) / 6] ²
Where:
TV = Task Variance
PV = √ sum (TV)
Where:
PV = Project Variance
♦ Used to calculate the task and project variance
♦ A larger variance indicates greater uncertainty within the
estimates
♦ Can be used as a +/- degree of certainty






2. Communications Channels
CC = N (N-1) / 2
Where:
CC = Number of Communication Channels that Exist
N = Number of Entities / People who Need to Communicate
♦ Used to calculate the number of unique communications
channels that exist
♦ Helps in understanding the potential complexity of
communication
3. Investment Determinations
Present Value (PV)
PV = FV / (1 + r) ⁿ
Where:
FV = future (forecasted) cash flows of an initiative (revenue or
cost)
r = interest rate
n = number of time periods
♦ Used to calculate the current value of future cash flows
♦ Assists in project initiative spending decisions by comparing
anticipated benefits from uncertain projects with typical
investment strategies









Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV = sum (PV revenue cash flows) – sum (PV cost cash flows)
♦ Used to calculate the current value of the total anticipated
benefits of a potential initiative
♦ Used to compare possible investment initiatives
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
♦ Used to compare the anticipated rate of return of multiple
initiatives
Payback Period
♦ Number of time periods it takes to recover your investment in the
project (i.e. total revenue=total cost) and start generating
incremental revenue
♦ Used to compare possible investment initiatives
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
BCR = benefits (revenue) / cost
♦ If BCR > 1, the initiative benefits are anticipated to outweigh the
costs
♦ Used to compare the ratio of benefits to costs of multiple
initiatives
Opportunity Cost
♦ The NPV lost by choosing to not complete an initiative









Sunk Cost
♦ Costs that have already been spent and should not factor into
future investment decisions (including project continuance)
Law of Diminishing Returns
♦ The principal that states the more that you put into something,
the less you get out of it. BCR is the mathematical basis for the
law
♦ Beyond strict math, the principal is used to counter flawed logic
such as doubling resources will half duration
Working Capital (WC)
WC = current assets – current liabilities
♦ Represents the amount of money available to an organization to
invest in initiatives
4. Earned Value Analysis Formulas
Cost
EV = % complete x BAC (calculated at task or work product level, result is summed
for project EV)
*CV = EV – AC
*CPI = EV / AC
*EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / CPI
*EAC = BAC / CPI (simpler equivalent of above formula)
*ETC = EAC – AC








*VAC = BAC – EAC
*V = BAC – AC (calculated at completion)
* can be calculated at task or work product level, generally used at a project level
Where:
EV = Earned Value (formerly BCWP, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed)
BAC = Budgeted at Completion
CV = Cost Variance
AC = Actual Cost (formerly ACWP, Actual Cost of Work Performed)
CPI = Cost Performance Index (<1 Over Spending, >1 Under Spending)
EAC = Estimate at Completion
ETC = Estimate to Complete
VAC = Variance at Completion
♦ Used to track cost variances, calculate cost estimating accuracy and
forecast future costs (and total project cost) based on early results
♦ Requires detailed budgeting and task completion percent tracking at a
task or work product level
♦ Practically, requires project management software (PMS)
Schedule
*SV = EV – PV
*SPI = EV / PV
* can be calculated at task or work product level, generally used at a project level
Where:
SV = Schedule Variance (Expressed in Dollars)
EV = Earned Value (formerly BCWP, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed)
PV = Planned Value (formerly BCWS, Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled)
SPI = Schedule Performance Index (<1 Over Spending, >1 Under Spending)
♦ Used to schedule variances, calculate schedule duration estimating
accuracy and forecast future durations (and total project duration)
based on early results


♦ Requires detailed budgeting, project network diagram creation and task
completion percent tracking at a task or work product level
♦ Practically, requires project management software (PMS)
5. Normal Distribution (Sigma or Standard Deviation)
+/- 1 Sigma = 68.26%
+/- 2 Sigma = 95.46%
+/- 3 Sigma = 99.73%
+/- 4 Sigma = 99.99%
♦ Used as a quality standard, 3 or 6 Sigma represents a target (upper and
lower control limits) for defect-free performance
6. Project Schedule Buffer
Sum of the Squares
Buffer = √ sum (M ²)
Where:
M = Most Likely Duration Estimate (often of just critical path
activities)
♦ Used to determine an appropriate duration for the schedule buffer
♦ Many other approaches exist including using an arbitrary % of the critical path duration 
Best-practice is to divide the buffer into 3 buffers. The first 1/3rd, the green buffer, can be used without concern. When the project begins using the second 1/3rd, the yellow buffer, the project requires tight control. When the team begins to use the final 1/3rd, the red buffer, the project is in real danger of running overtime.






7. Accuracy of Estimates
Order of Magnitude Estimate (Initiation) = -25% to +75
Budget Estimate (Planning) = -10% to +25%
Definitive Estimate (Late Planning / Partial Execution) = -5% to +10%.
8. Risk – Expected Value (EV)
EV = Probability x Impact
♦ Used to determine the expected value of a risk event
♦ The sum of the EV, can be used to determine the project reserve (risk contingency budget)


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## hasan2004 (11 يناير 2007)

بارك الله فيك


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## fayin12 (16 يناير 2007)

شكرا لك يا اخ حلاوة


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## Amin Sorour (17 يناير 2007)

الله ينور يا بشمهندس بجد معلومات قيمه جدا


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## الزعيم2000 (18 يناير 2007)

ما شاء الله على المعلومات القيمة 
أتمنى التواصل والمزيد لأنه واضح إن حضرتك متبحر


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## esas (23 يناير 2007)

السلام عليكم يا اخي بس ممكن تبدأ الموضوع من الأول لأني مش فاهم حاجة أو لو فيه كتاب بيتكلم عن الحاجات دي بالتفصيل لأني لسه جديد في موضوع الأدارة


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## Mr. Data (25 يناير 2007)

Thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaanks


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## hosini2000 (17 يونيو 2007)

السؤال الذي يحيرني هو ..

المهندس الذي يعمل ( cost controller ) ..ماذا يفعل ؟ و كيف يفعله ؟

برجاء الإجابة على سؤالي و لو أمكن تنظيم دورة عن هذا الموضوع لأنه مهم و لأن الكثير من الشركات في مصر و خارجها تطلب مهندسين لهذه الوظيفة


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## eng_mostafaa (6 يوليو 2007)

جزاك الله خيرا وياريت شرح تقدملنا شرح مفصل


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## m_halawa (8 يوليو 2007)

*والله كان بودي*

الشرح المفصل دي قصة طويلة لكل جزء محتاج فرغ آسف جدا لذلك


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## bolbol (9 يوليو 2007)

بسم الله ما شاء الله 
الله ينور عليك

وكمساعدة للزملاء ومحاولة للتواصل فلنحاول معاً معرفة المعلومات القيمة التي وضعها أخونا العزيز :-
أولاً pert
هي طريقة يتم بمقتضاها وضع قيم متغيرة لتنفيذ نشاط معين بناءاً على عدم التأكد من المدة الزمنية التي يستهلكها النشاط
فمن المعروف عندما نقول أن نشاط ما سيستهلك مدة زمنية محددة بناء على معدلات سابقة فمن الممكن أن يستهلك هذا النشاط مدة أصغر أو أكبر من المدة التي يتم فرضها 
ففي هذه الطريقة يتم وضع ثلاثة أزمنة أحدهم يعتبر متفائل وآخر متشائم وآخر أكثر إحتمالاً ثم يتم إستخدام المعادلة ( أ+4×ب+ج)/6 ليصبح هو الزمن الذي يتم إستخدامه
أما sv أو standard deviation ( الإنحراف المعياري ) فهو يعبر عن مدى عدم الثقة في هذه المدد وكلما زاد عبر ذلك عن عدم التأكد من المعلومات بخصوص تحديد المدة المشار إليها

ثانياً : channels - Communication management
وهي تصف عدد قنوات الإتصال التي تتواجد في أي مشروع وكقاعدة عامة يجب معرفتها فإنه في أي مشروع كل الstakeholders ( الأشخاص المعنيين بالمشروع ) يمكن أن يتصلوا ببعض يعني لو قلنا في مشروع ما 5 الstakeholders فمعنى ذلك الآتي :-
الشخص الأول سيتصل بال4 أشخاص الآخرين
الشخص الثاني سيتصل بال4 أشخاص الآخرين ولكن كان عندنا اتصال تم وضعه من أولاً يبقى عندنا في هذه الخطوة 3 إتصالات
الشخص الثالث 2 اتصالات
الشخص الرابع 1 اتصال 
يبقى المجموع 10 اتصالات
ولو طبقنا في المعادلة ( 5 ) × ( 4 ) /2 = 10 اتصالات


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## mos (27 يوليو 2007)

مشاركة مفيدة وجزاكم الله خيرا .


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