# Gold Price on dialy baasis and why the gold move up or down



## alshangiti (27 سبتمبر 2011)

Kitco News) - European central banks sold a gross 1.1 metric tons under the third Central Bank Gold Agreement, the lowest annual sales since the agreement began in September 1999, the World Gold Council said Tuesday.
The current agreement allows European central bank signatories to sell 400 tons of gold collectively per year. This is the third CBGA agreement, which is in its second year. Monday marked the end of the second year. 
“European central banks’ appetite for gold sales has dissipated since the onset of the financial crisis. During periods of such intense economic and financial market turbulence gold adds much needed stability to a central bank’s reserves,” said Natalie Dempster, director of government affairs for the World Gold Council. 
Last year there was a similar disinterest to sell, with European signatories selling just 7.1 tons of the 400 tons allowed. 
Central banks in many countries, particularly in emerging markets, have been gold adding to their reserves over the past two years, Dempster said.
“As a whole, central banks are now large net buyers of gold having re-evaluated their reserve asset management policies and we expect them to remain so for the foreseeable future,” she said.
The CBGA started in 1999 and in the first five years, central banks were sellers of the full amount, set at 400 tons at the time. Between 2005-2009, a second CBGA was enacted and the ceiling limit was lifted to 500 tons, but signatories had undersold the limit. The limit was lowered back to 400 tons in the current agreement, which runs through September 2014.
For more information see the WGC website:


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2011)

*Comex Gold Backs Off to Trade Solidly Lower amid Strong Dollar, Lower Crude Oil Prices*

Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices are modestly lower late Wednesday morning in quieter trading compared to the huge daily ranges posted earlier this week. 
The gold market is consolidating the recent volatile price action and pausing. A firming U.S. dollar index and weakening crude oil futures prices Wednesday are bearish "outside market" forces working against the precious metals. December gold last traded down $14.00 an ounce at $1,638.40. 
*By Jim Wyckoff contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]*
*Editor’s Note: *
_Kitco News will provide readers with comprehensive print and video coverage of three-major precious metals market events in New York, Toronto and Montreal during the next two weeks._
_First, Kitco News will supply live coverage on Wednesday, Sept. 14, of the CPM Platinum Group Metals Seminar in New York. That will be followed by the Toronto Resource Investment Conference September 15-16, and then the London Bullion Marketing Association meeting in Montreal September 18-20. _
_The CPM Group's Platinum Metals Group Seminar Sept. 14 will showcase presentations from some of the leading analysts and investors in the PGM sector. Register to watch the CPM Platinum Group Metals Seminar Live (Free Registration): http://cpmevents.kitco.com/_


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2011)

*AngloGold to invest $1.75 bln in Brazil by 2016*

BELO HORIZONTE (MarketWatch) -- South African gold producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU, ANG.JO) will invest $1.75 billion in Brazil to raise gold output to 700,000 ounces per year by 2016, the company's global chief executive officer, Mark Cutifani, said Wednesday. 
The company expects to produce 420,000 ounces of gold in Brazil this year, up from 400,000 ounces in 2010, and sees that number rising to 500,000 ounces in 2012, Cutifani told reporters at a mining event in Brazil. 
The company is currently starting operations at a new $220 million gold mining project at Corrego do Sitio in Minas Gerais state, Cutifani said. 
The company will "remain nervous until we see the outcome" of Brazil's planned new mining code, Cutifani said. This is because of AngloGold's experiences in Australia, where the recent introduction of high "new mining taxes will increase the cost of commodities to the market" he said. 
Proposals for Brazil's new mining legislation, expected to raise royalties, are due to be sent to Congress for consideration in the near future.


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2011)

*خبير سويسرى يتوقع المزيد من الانخفاض للذهب*

قال خبير الاستثمار السويسري المعروف “مارك فابر” في حديث مع قناة “سي إن بي سي” الأمريكية اليوم إن أسعار الذهب التي تراجعت خلال الأسابيع القليلة الماضية من المنتظر أن تواصل تراجعها.
وقال أننا تجاوزنا الهدف عندما تخطى الذهب 1900 دولار.. نحن على وشك الاقتراب من قاع 1500 دولار، والتي إن لم يتم التماسك عندها سيكون الهبوط إلى مستوى بين 1100 إلى 1200 دولار” على حد قول “فابر” الذي تحتوي محفظته الاستثمارية على 25% كأصول مدعومة بالذهب.
وفى هذا في الوقت الذي تراجعت فيه عقود الذهب الآجلة المتداولة في بورصة نيويورك إلى أقل مستوياتها في عشرة أسابيع عند 1535 دولارا خلال تعاملات اليوم قبل أن تقلل تلك الخسائرة بالصعود إلى مستوى 1629.8 دولار 
يشار إلى أن عقود الذهب بلغت أعلى مستوياتها على الإطلاق يوم السادس من سبتمبر/أيلول الحالي بتجاوزها 1920 دولارا في ذلك قبل أن تبدأ رحلة هبوطها الحالية


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2011)

*Gold price could hit $2,000 in 2012’*

KUWAIT CITY, Aug 20: After Gold achieved our target of $1,700 we are revising our estimates, and have come up with an analysis of where prices are headed over the next 3 to 6 months, by mid 2012.
The price of gold could hit $2,000 a troy ounce over the next year, Aberdeen Asset Management has predicted, as investors look for a safe haven for their money. The precious metal soared to a record high of $1,814.90 an ounce earlier this month as investors fretted about the prospects of a debt crisis in the euro zone and US. It has fallen back since then, but the bleak picture the world is in gives it tremendous support and may even prove as a catalyst for further moves on the upside. 

The market frigidness over the bleak picture in the global economy and the lack of traders willing to take any risk could propel the price of the metal to newer highs over the next year. The shift in the dynamics of the world over the past years have brought gold to this level, but the negative interest rate environment (inflation rate subtracted from the nominal interest rate) the world finds itself in these days is leading to declining purchasing power in the respective currency’s and the rising risk of defaults form leading industrial nations is the catalyst that the metal needs to push it to new highs. If we compare to the past, inflation-adjusted price of gold, it is still off by $500 (gold all-time high set in 1980 of more than $2,300an oz. ounce inflation adjusted).
For Chinese investors there is nothing out there except for gold, with their real savings rate at a negative rate (the inflation rate subtracted from the nominal interest rate). And the warnings they get from their local council men in their local governments that land and real estate prices were set to fall. They have hoarded gold.

UBS Raises Gold Forecast on Growth, Debt Concerns. The Markets weary over slowing demand and more so the burdensome debt issues in the industrial nations continue to push prices of the metals higher, as investors seek safe haven investments. To compound matters the central banks continued buying has pushed gold prices higher. UBS raised its three month forecast to $1850 from $1600 due to the aforementioned reasons. Another report indicated that US consumer spending dipped in the past month raising worries over a slowing US economy and the implications to the world economy. Moody’s Investors Services said the outlook for the US debt grade is placed on negative watch after President Obama signed into law the debt limit increase while cutting spending without any revenue increases. 

“A barely expanding US economy and its implications for the world are now at the forefront of investors’ minds, helping gold push to records,” said Edel Tully, a London based analyst at UBS AG, in a report. “Neither European nor US debt issues have been comprehensively dealt with. Data since last Friday have increased expectations for further quantitative easing (QE3) by the Federal Reserve “she said. 
In the Euro Zone, both Italian and Spanish bond yields rose to record-levels in the Euro history and these levels reached are considered as unsustainable. “If you look at the European Bond Markets, you will see yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are back above 6%, so this crisis, unfortunately seems to be spreading to Italy and Spain, which is potentially more serious than Greece, because they’re much larger,” said Jesper Dannesboe, senior commodities strategist at Societe Generale. “Gold is reacting to this and that is the main driver right now.”

The International Monetary Fund said in its monthly report on central banks and their reserves that the Thai, Russian, and Kazakh Banks among others have added gold to their reserves in the past couple months as they diversify their balance sheets. “Central banks around the world need to buy hundreds of tons a year,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG.


www.caveo-kw.com


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## alshangiti (29 سبتمبر 2011)

Updates prices)
* Lower prices attract buyers, euro zone crisis underpins
* Prices still vulnerable to wider market volatility
* Platinum retains hefty discount to gold
By Jan Harvey
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday, lifted by strong physical demand and gains in the euro, but was back from earlier highs as the German parliament's approval of new powers for the euro zone rescue fund damped interest in the metal as a haven from risk.
Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,611.49 an ounce at 1152 GMT. Earlier it rose as high as $1,633.59 on talk that German Chancellor Angela Merkel could face dissent in her own party in the rescue fund vote, but eased as this dissipated.
Concerns over the ability of euro zone authorities to tackle the bloc's worsening debt crisis were a key issue pushing gold to a record $1,920 an ounce this month.
Traditionally the metal has been seen as a safe store of value at a time of volatility in other assets. Although recent hefty losses have undermined this reputation, it remains more stable than many other assets, particularly among currencies.
"Gold is the one currency without debt liabilities, so if you are worried about the debt situation in the U.S. and euro zone, an obvious currency to look towards is gold," said Danske Bank analyst Christin Tuxen. "There are still reasons for it to be regarded as a safe haven."
Gold remains supported by strong interest in physical metal after a series of sell-offs this week took prices to multi-week lows. Investors have been forced to liquidate their highly-valued gold holdings to cover losses on other markets.
Investors remain wary that fresh financial market ructions linked to the euro zone debt crisis could spark more losses in the precious metal, which this week has fallen as much as 20 percent from September's record highs.
Stocks markets climbed in early afternoon trade and the euro rose as the German parliament approved the euro zone rescue fund's new powers.
"A stronger euro on a 'good vote' will probably help gold given the way the metal has been reacting to EUR/USD of late," said UBS in a note.
The dollar index pared losses, however, helping to pressure gold. The dollar-priced metal becomes more expensive for other currency holders when the U.S. unit strengthens.
U.S. gold futures GCv1 for December delivery were down $5.20 an ounce at $1,612.90.


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## alshangiti (29 سبتمبر 2011)

Sep 29 2011, Current New York Time: 17:32:44

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## alshangiti (30 سبتمبر 2011)

Sep 30 2011, Current New York Time: 6:21:49

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## alshangiti (30 سبتمبر 2011)

SINGAPORE, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Gold ticked up on Friday,having gained in the previous session on German approval of astronger bailout fund to counter the euro zone debt crisis, butthe metal was heading for its worst monthly decline in threeyears. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold added $7.79 an ounce to $1,621.84 anounce by 0043 GMT. Despite the gain, prices were headed for of11 percent, their worst since October 2008 when they tumbled 17percent following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. * Gold rallied to a lifetime high around $1,920 an ounce inearly September. * U.S. gold GCcv1 rose $7.2 an ounce to $1,624.50 anounce. * German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a vote on enhancingthe euro zone's bailout fund without needing to rely on theopposition, a senior member of Merkel's CDU party said onThursday. * For the top stories on metals and other news, click , or MARKET NEWS * The euro clung to modest gains in Asia on Friday,following a brief boost after Germany approved an expansion ofthe euro zone bailout fund, but investors remain worried due tothe many hurdles ahead of a workable resolution to the Europeancrisis. * The Nikkei share average was flat on Friday, wavering inand out of positive territory in the first minutes of trading asinvestors took profits after a late surge in the previoussession, and was on track to gain for the week. * U.S. crude futures extended gains on Friday, as the Germanvote to beef up the euro zone rescue fund and upbeat U.S.economic data eased market worries over a slowing globaleconomy. DATA/EVENTS 0230 China HSBC PMI Sep 2011 0500 Japan Construction orders yy Aug 2011 0600 Germany Retail sales yy real Aug 2011 0900 EZ Inflation, flash yy Sep 2011 1230 U.S. Personal Income Aug 2011 1345 U.S. Chicago PMI Sep 2011 1355 U.S. Reuters/U.Mich Sentiment Sept 1930 U.S. CFTC Commitments of traders Precious metals prices at 0043 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume Spot Gold 1621.84 7.79 +0.48 14.26 Spot Silver 30.84 0.26 +0.85 -0.06 Spot Platinum 1529.49 12.24 +0.81 -13.47 Spot Palladium 620.49 4.49 +0.73 -22.39 TOCOM Gold 4005.00 2.00 +0.05 7.40 31699 TOCOM Platinum 3805.00 -11.00 -0.29 -18.97 5421 TOCOM Silver 75.50 0.00 +0.00 -6.79 376 TOCOM Palladium 1556.00 9.00 +0.58 -25.80 109 COMEX GOLD DEC1 1624.20 6.90 +0.43 14.27 2815 COMEX SILVER DEC1 30.91 0.39 +1.27 -0.10 712 Euro/Dollar 1.3586 Dollar/Yen 76.63 TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce. COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months (Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Michael Urquhart)


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## alshangiti (30 سبتمبر 2011)

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE78S0CK20110929?sp=true

*China, S. Africa ink $2.5 billion in deals in Dalai Lama's shadow*


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## alshangiti (1 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 1 2011, Current New York Time: 12:18:29

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## alshangiti (2 أكتوبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Oct 2 2011, Current New York Time: 14:31:14


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## alshangiti (2 أكتوبر 2011)

*Gold Prices Could Rise Next Week – Survey Participants*




Friday September 30, 2011 12:21 PM
The majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey expect to see higher prices next week, but those who see weaker or prices unchanged were equally divided, as the gold market continues to try and heal after the recent sharp break in prices. 
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 13 see prices up, while six see prices down, and six see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures, sees higher prices. Like several participants who see gold prices up, the fact that the metal has held $1,600 an ounce suggests that gold is trying to build a base as it tries to regain its uptrend. He said he believes that the hedge fund and other investment selling that pressured gold has abated, which takes away one bearish overhang. When equities fell sharply many investors sought to cash out profitable gold positions to shore up failing positions in stocks, market watchers said. If the dollar continues its climb that can put a cap on gold strength. Tintle said gold might trade to $1,725 next week.
Those who see weaker prices said the dollar strength is one of the reasons gold might be down next week. Also, several mentioned the lack of growth in open interest in the futures market as prices moved off of their spike lows sub-$1,600. If open interest isn’t growing, that could mean the rebound from the lows isn’t from new buying, but could be from short covering – sellers who were buying back positions to close a trade.
Several participants said they see flat prices and said the volatility in the market hasn’t ceased. They said prices could still gyrate next week, but ultimately leave prices not far from current levels.




By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News [email protected]


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## alshangiti (3 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 3 2011, Current New York Time: 12:24:14

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htm


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## alshangiti (4 أكتوبر 2011)

*gold price*

Oct 4 2011, Current New York Time: 10:53:33


http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## alshangiti (5 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 05, 2011 11:39 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (6 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 06, 2011 09:58 NY Time

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity. 
The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value


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## alshangiti (7 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 07, 2011 14:57 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (8 أكتوبر 2011)

*الطلب الاستهلاكي والملاذات الآمنة يعزز ان أسعار الذهب*

المصدر: 

الوكالات
التاريخ: 08 أكتوبر 2011 






عزز الذهب مواقعه مستفيداً من الطلب الاستهلاكي والإقبال على الملاذات الآمنة وبلغ مجمل الارتفاع خلال الجلسات الخمس الماضية 1.7%. واستقر سعر الذهب أمس بعد انخفاض السعر بنسبة 10.9% الشهر الماضي ليهبط دون 1700 دولار للاوقية.
وزاد سعر الذهب ليسجل 1651.39 دولاراً للاوقية بعد أن ارتفع خلال احدى مراحل التعامل الى 1665.99 دولاراً ، بينما استقر السعر في التعاملات الأميركية الاجلة لعقود ديسمبر عند 1653 دولاراً للاوقية. وفيما يتعلق بالمعادن النفيسة الاخرى انخفض سعر الفضة بأكثر من 0.5% إلى 31.72 دولاراً للاوقية بينما زاد سعر البلاتين 0.6% الى 1514.49 دولاراً للاوقية. وهبط سعر البلاديوم بأكثر من 1.3% الى 594.72 دولاراً للاوقية.
وكان الذهب ارتفع في الجلسة السابقة بعد أن حد ارتفاع الأسهم من عمليات بيع المعدن النفيس لتغطية خسائر في قطاعات أخرى ومع استفادة المشترين الفعليين من انخفاض الاسعار. وسجل الذهب أكبر انخفاض في ثلاث سنوات الشهر الماضي بسبب ضغوط بيع لتغطية خسائر سوق الاسهم ما دفع الاسعار للهبوط بأكثر من 20% عن مستوياتها القياسية وبدء فترة من التعاملات المضطربة.
وإضافة إلى الطلب الاستهلاكي تتعزز اسعار الذهب بفعل الواردات الرسمية لبعض الدول. وكان عثمان ساراتش رئيس بورصة اسطنبول للذهب قد توقع أن تتجاوز واردات تركيا من الذهب 70 طناً هذا العام والعام المقبل مسجلة زيادة بأكثر من 63% عن مستويات 2010 لكن لا يزال ارتفاع الاسعار وضعف الليرة التركية يكبحان نمو الواردات.
ونظراً لارتفاع أسعار الذهب العالمية في العامين الماضيين فإن الواردات منخفضة بشكل كبير عن مستوياتها في الفترة بين 2005 و2009 حين بلغت أقل كمية تم استيرادها في أي من تلك الاعوام 165.9 طناً. وبلغ انتاج الذهب المحلي في الاشهر الستة الاولى من العام 10.4 أطنان ومن المتوقع أن يصل الى 20 طناً في عام 2011 بأكمله مقارنة مع 16.4 طناً في 2010.



http://www.arab-eng.org/vb/?ot=ot.PrintPageLayout 
javascript:showHideSend2Friend();


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## alshangiti (12 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 12, 2011 16:47 NY Time

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (13 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 13, 2011 09:20 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (15 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 14, 2011 17:14 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (15 أكتوبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20111014DeC_outlook.html
METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Seen Moving Higher Next Week


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## alshangiti (17 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 17, 2011 11:07 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (18 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 18, 2011 14:39 NY Time

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (21 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 21, 2011 08:18 NY Time

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (22 أكتوبر 2011)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX

21 october 2011


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## alshangiti (24 أكتوبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
Oct 24, 2011 14:17 NY Time


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## alshangiti (25 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 25, 2011 11:28 NY Time

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (27 أكتوبر 2011)

Oct 27, 2011 03:12 NY Time
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (28 أكتوبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (29 أكتوبر 2011)

http://www.fmxconnect.com/fmxmetals...d-Options-Report-ndash3b-October-28-2011.aspx


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## alshangiti (1 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
1 November 2011


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## alshangiti (1 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11295566/1/gold-prices-continue-to-slide-as-dollar-strengthens.html


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## alshangiti (2 نوفمبر 2011)

2 november. 2011


http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (3 نوفمبر 2011)

November. 3. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (4 نوفمبر 2011)

Nov 04, 2011 15:29 NY Time

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (4 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20111104DeC_outlook.html

METALS OUTLOOK: Gold Prices Could Continue To Rise Next Week


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## alshangiti (4 نوفمبر 2011)

*Gold Prices Expected To Rise Again Next Week – Survey Participants*

http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_november04.2011.html


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## alshangiti (8 نوفمبر 2011)

8 november 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (8 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20111108_MM.html


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## alshangiti (9 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-fall-more-than-10-on-dollar-strength-2011-11-09

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
9 novenber 2011


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## alshangiti (10 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

10 November 2011


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## alshangiti (11 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

11-11-2011


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## alshangiti (16 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

16 november 2011


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## alshangiti (18 نوفمبر 2011)

18 november 2011

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (22 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

22 November 2011


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## alshangiti (23 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

23 november 2011


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## alshangiti (24 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

24 november 2011


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## alshangiti (25 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

25 november 2011


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## alshangiti (28 نوفمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

28 november 2011


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## alshangiti (28 نوفمبر 2011)

*Kitco News)* - Mon Nov. 28—December Comex gold futures vaulted higher early Monday, pushing above last week's high. The short-term technical outlook has improved as the market attempts to form a minor bottom at last week's basing action.
"There is a good possibility we are going to retest the $1,800 (an ounce) level. We put in a four-day base [last week] that projects to around $1,770," said Peter Ruud, technical analyst at Informa Global Markets. 
Much of November saw the December Comex gold futures contract succumb to modest corrective pullback pressures. The gold market slipped from the $1,804.40 level on Nov. 8 to the Nov. 21 low at $1,667.10. However, last week's action appears to have etched a minor bottom on the daily chart. 
"If we form another higher low that would be a good sign that $1,800 could be a viable target," Ruud said. 
In the short-term, Ruud pointed to the $1,710 level, or last week's high, as key near-term technical chart support for the December gold market. "If we hold [above] last week's high that would be bullish," he said.
Looking at action over the past several months, Ruud added that the gold market is currently approaching the "mid-point" of the range from the Sept. 6 all-time high to the Sept. 26 low. He calculated that mid-point, based off of spot gold at $1,728 per ounce. "If we can close above the mid-point that would be a signal gold will test $1,800. If we stay below it, gold may need to take another drive lower." 
Pointing to the 9-day relative strength index (RSI), a widely watched momentum indicator, Ruud said that last week saw the tool dip near a key level. "Longer term buying opportunities below 30% in the 9-day RSI historically have been an excellent opportunity to buy." Last week, Ruud noted that the indicator dipped to 31%, close to the historic buy spot level. Currently, the indicator has climbed to a 48% reading. 
Overall, Ruud concluded that "there are a lot of ifs, ands and buts right now" regarding the gold market's near term technical outlook. But, he is encouraged by last week's basing pattern and is monitoring action around short-term support at $1,710. A close above $1,728 will be bullish and will target a move toward the $1,800 region, he said. 
"It is critical for how long it takes to get up to $1,800. If we can get up there quickly it would be bullish signaling a retest of the all-time high. But, if it takes more than two weeks to get to the $1,800 level we could be forming a double top. If it fails to hit $1,800 by mid-December gold could be susceptible to a retest of the $1,550 area," Ruud said. 
December Comex silver futures remain range-bound, in a short-term neutral position. That market sees near term range-top resistance at $33.04 an ounce, with range bottom support at $30.65. A break through range top resistance would be a bullish near term signal and would target a retest of the $35.35/35.70 region. 



*By Kitco News*
*<<Back to more Kitco exclusive news*
*Disclaimer:* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of *Kitco Metals Inc.* The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication​


*Kitco News)* - Mon Nov. 28—December Comex gold futures vaulted higher early Monday, pushing above last week's high. The short-term technical outlook has improved as the market attempts to form a minor bottom at last week's basing action.
"There is a good possibility we are going to retest the $1,800 (an ounce) level. We put in a four-day base [last week] that projects to around $1,770," said Peter Ruud, technical analyst at Informa Global Markets. 
Much of November saw the December Comex gold futures contract succumb to modest corrective pullback pressures. The gold market slipped from the $1,804.40 level on Nov. 8 to the Nov. 21 low at $1,667.10. However, last week's action appears to have etched a minor bottom on the daily chart. 
"If we form another higher low that would be a good sign that $1,800 could be a viable target," Ruud said. 
In the short-term, Ruud pointed to the $1,710 level, or last week's high, as key near-term technical chart support for the December gold market. "If we hold [above] last week's high that would be bullish," he said.
Looking at action over the past several months, Ruud added that the gold market is currently approaching the "mid-point" of the range from the Sept. 6 all-time high to the Sept. 26 low. He calculated that mid-point, based off of spot gold at $1,728 per ounce. "If we can close above the mid-point that would be a signal gold will test $1,800. If we stay below it, gold may need to take another drive lower." 
Pointing to the 9-day relative strength index (RSI), a widely watched momentum indicator, Ruud said that last week saw the tool dip near a key level. "Longer term buying opportunities below 30% in the 9-day RSI historically have been an excellent opportunity to buy." Last week, Ruud noted that the indicator dipped to 31%, close to the historic buy spot level. Currently, the indicator has climbed to a 48% reading. 
Overall, Ruud concluded that "there are a lot of ifs, ands and buts right now" regarding the gold market's near term technical outlook. But, he is encouraged by last week's basing pattern and is monitoring action around short-term support at $1,710. A close above $1,728 will be bullish and will target a move toward the $1,800 region, he said. 
"It is critical for how long it takes to get up to $1,800. If we can get up there quickly it would be bullish signaling a retest of the all-time high. But, if it takes more than two weeks to get to the $1,800 level we could be forming a double top. If it fails to hit $1,800 by mid-December gold could be susceptible to a retest of the $1,550 area," Ruud said. 
December Comex silver futures remain range-bound, in a short-term neutral position. That market sees near term range-top resistance at $33.04 an ounce, with range bottom support at $30.65. A break through range top resistance would be a bullish near term signal and would target a retest of the $35.35/35.70 region. 


*By Kitco News*
*<<Back to more Kitco exclusive news*
*Disclaimer:* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of *Kitco Metals Inc.* The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication​


*Kitco News)* - Mon Nov. 28—December Comex gold futures vaulted higher early Monday, pushing above last week's high. The short-term technical outlook has improved as the market attempts to form a minor bottom at last week's basing action.
"There is a good possibility we are going to retest the $1,800 (an ounce) level. We put in a four-day base [last week] that projects to around $1,770," said Peter Ruud, technical analyst at Informa Global Markets. 
Much of November saw the December Comex gold futures contract succumb to modest corrective pullback pressures. The gold market slipped from the $1,804.40 level on Nov. 8 to the Nov. 21 low at $1,667.10. However, last week's action appears to have etched a minor bottom on the daily chart. 
"If we form another higher low that would be a good sign that $1,800 could be a viable target," Ruud said. 
In the short-term, Ruud pointed to the $1,710 level, or last week's high, as key near-term technical chart support for the December gold market. "If we hold [above] last week's high that would be bullish," he said.
Looking at action over the past several months, Ruud added that the gold market is currently approaching the "mid-point" of the range from the Sept. 6 all-time high to the Sept. 26 low. He calculated that mid-point, based off of spot gold at $1,728 per ounce. "If we can close above the mid-point that would be a signal gold will test $1,800. If we stay below it, gold may need to take another drive lower." 
Pointing to the 9-day relative strength index (RSI), a widely watched momentum indicator, Ruud said that last week saw the tool dip near a key level. "Longer term buying opportunities below 30% in the 9-day RSI historically have been an excellent opportunity to buy." Last week, Ruud noted that the indicator dipped to 31%, close to the historic buy spot level. Currently, the indicator has climbed to a 48% reading. 
Overall, Ruud concluded that "there are a lot of ifs, ands and buts right now" regarding the gold market's near term technical outlook. But, he is encouraged by last week's basing pattern and is monitoring action around short-term support at $1,710. A close above $1,728 will be bullish and will target a move toward the $1,800 region, he said. 
"It is critical for how long it takes to get up to $1,800. If we can get up there quickly it would be bullish signaling a retest of the all-time high. But, if it takes more than two weeks to get to the $1,800 level we could be forming a double top. If it fails to hit $1,800 by mid-December gold could be susceptible to a retest of the $1,550 area," Ruud said. 
December Comex silver futures remain range-bound, in a short-term neutral position. That market sees near term range-top resistance at $33.04 an ounce, with range bottom support at $30.65. A break through range top resistance would be a bullish near term signal and would target a retest of the $35.35/35.70 region. 


*By Kitco News*
*<<Back to more Kitco exclusive news*
*Disclaimer:* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of *Kitco Metals Inc.* The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication​




By Claudia Assis and Polya Lesova, MarketWatch 
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rallied Monday, tracking global equity markets on optimism about Europe’s debt crisis and hopes strong sales over the U.S. holiday weekend will help prop the economy and perhaps translate into more jewelry demand. 
Gold for December delivery /quotes/zigman/661658 GC1Z +1.50% rose $26.80, or 1.6%, to $1,712.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. 
Click to Play


*Europe's week ahead: Bond auctions *

The spotlight will remain on the euro-zone sovereign-debt markets this week, with several countries scheduled to hold bond auctions. 

“Gold is simply getting some tailwind from the euro,” said Jim Steel, a precious metals analyst with HSBC in New York. 
Investors have become more optimistic about the region after reports European officials have made some progress in reining in sovereign-debt crisis. 
The strong sales over Thanksgiving weekend in the U.S. also fed hopes that perhaps gold and silver would benefit from increased jewelry demand, Steel added. 
Gold continued to behave more like a risky asset than a safe-haven, analysts at Commerzbank AG wrote in a note. This is thanks “to the behavior of futures-market players who feel less pressure to sell as their risk aversion declines.” 
Gold has largely tracked stock movements in recent weeks, with limited safe-haven bids as safety-minded investors have preferred other assets such as U.S. bonds and cash. 
The rally in gold prices came as the dollar index /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY -0.58% , which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, dropped to 79.222 from 79.688 in late North American trading on Friday. 
The euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.05% changed hands at 1.3310 against the greenback, from $1.3224 in late trading Friday. Read more about the euro, currencies. 
Dollar weakness is a boost to dollar-denominated commodity prices as it makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies. 
“Gold prices rose in tandem with gains in the broad commodity space as a weaker dollar aided the demand for the bullion,” analysts at India’s ICICI Bank said in a note to clients. 
Oil futures also advanced, while U.S. stock futures pointed to an opening rally on Wall Street, buoyed by hopes that euro-zone leaders will make progress in tackling the sovereign-debt crisis roiling the region. 
European officials are discussing a deal to make fiscal rules legally binding, allowing authorities to enforce fiscal discipline, the Wall Street Journal reported. 
Reuters reported officials have reached an agreement on how to leverage the euro zone’s rescue fund ahead of a Tuesday meeting of euro-zone finance ministers. 
Other metals tracked gold higher, with December silver /quotes/zigman/663010 SI1Z +3.76% up $1.09, or 3.5%, to $32.11 an ounce. December copper /quotes/zigman/635638 HG1Z +2.69% rose 10 cents, or 3.1%, to $3.37 per ounce


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## alshangiti (3 ديسمبر 2011)

*gold price*

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

2-12-2011


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## alshangiti (6 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

6 december 2012


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## alshangiti (10 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

9 December 2011


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## alshangiti (12 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

12 december 2011


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## alshangiti (13 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

13 december 2011


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## alshangiti (15 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


15 december 2011


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## alshangiti (15 ديسمبر 2011)

تراوح سعر الدهب من ديسمبر 2010 الى ديسمبر 2011 1413 دولار للاونصة الى 1900 دولار للاونصة وسعر الدهب اليوم 1570 دولار للاونصة اى ان الفرق كان فى حدود 500 دولار كيف سيكون الدهب فى عام 2012


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## alshangiti (18 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20111216DeC_outlook.html


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## alshangiti (18 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

16 december 2011


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## alshangiti (29 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

29 december 2012


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## alshangiti (30 ديسمبر 2011)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

30 December 2012


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## alshangiti (5 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


5 -1-2012


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## alshangiti (5 يناير 2012)

http://outlook2012.kitco.com/

Kitco News) - Natural gas prices hold the dubious distinction of being the worst price-performer for commodities in 2011, closing the year down more than 40%, and prices are unlikely to do much better in 2012. However, market watchers said there are potential price-positive scenarios for natural gas, but these scenarios are unlikely to show up in 2012. Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are trading around $3 per million British thermal units for the... 
View in Context »


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## alshangiti (14 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

13 -1-2012


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## alshangiti (19 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

21 Jan 2012


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## alshangiti (19 يناير 2012)

Sorry. 19 jan. Not 21


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## alshangiti (20 يناير 2012)

٢٠ يناير ٢٠١٢. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (25 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

25. Jan. 2012


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## alshangiti (25 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120125JW_pm.html


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## alshangiti (26 يناير 2012)

http://www.facebook.com/#!/


http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (26 يناير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120126DeC_barclays.html


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## alshangiti (1 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

٣١/١/٢٠١٢


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## alshangiti (2 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

1 feb ٢٠١٢


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## alshangiti (6 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-.html

6 feb 2012


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## alshangiti (6 فبراير 2012)

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11403482/1/gold-prices-continue-to--on-stronger-dollar.html


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## alshangiti (15 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
15 feb 2012


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## alshangiti (17 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

17 feb 2012


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## alshangiti (22 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

22 feb 2012


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## alshangiti (24 فبراير 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

24 feb 2012. 


When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.

The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.

When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.

The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.

Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.

Our feature on kitco.com breaks the change of the price of gold into 2 components. One part shows you how much of that change can be attributed to US Dollar strength, or lack of it. The other portion is indicative of how much the price changed as a result of normal trading. Interestingly whatever changes happen to the price of gold as a result of US Dollar strength/weakness also occurs to every other US Dollar denominated commodity by the exact same proportion.


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## alshangiti (15 مارس 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

15 march 2013


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## alshangiti (21 مارس 2012)

21 march 2012. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (24 مارس 2012)

http://www.kitcometals.com/


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## alshangiti (24 مارس 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## alshangiti (28 مارس 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

28 march 2012


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## alshangiti (28 مارس 2012)

TD Securities Lowers Gold’s Average Price Forecast To $1,766/Oz In 2012, Silver $35.05/Oz
27 March 2012, 10:54 a.m. 
By Kitco News 
http://www.kitco.com/


*Editor's note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!*
*(Kitco News) *- The average price for gold in 2012 is forecast to be $1,766 an ounce and the average silver price is forecast at $35.05 an ounce, a reduction of 8.3% and 9%, respectively, from a previous outlook, said a leading Canadian bank on Tuesday.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, also reduced his forecast for platinum’s 2012 average price by 1.1% to $1,755 an ounce and palladium by 3.9% to $740 an ounce. In base metals, he lowered the 2012 copper average price to $3.92 a pound, a 2% reduction from the previous forecast.
He said gold, platinum, palladium, silver and copper face downside risks from disappointing Chinese, U.S. and European economic data and the potential for higher interest rate expectations in the near-term. Longer-term outlooks for these metals are more positive, Melek said, and he expected by the second half of 2012 investor interest and improving supply and demand fundamentals will push prices higher across the board.
“Now that we have reached an inflection point, where U.S. interest rates are on a higher upward trajectory, realistic hopes of QE3 have died out and rising concerns that slowing income growth in China and higher taxes in India will limit physical demand, gold will be quite subdued in the early part of second half of 2012. Given this environment, the risks are to the downside in the short term,” Melek said.
It’s possible if equities continue to rally strongly, crude oil prices fall, or hawkish statements come out from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, investors could “cut their long positions further and build shorts, and bring gold down into high-$1,500s territory,” he said.
Silver faces similar risks, he added.
The slowing Chinese economy could pinch industrial metals like the PGMs and copper into the early part of the second half of 2012. 
Melek said copper prices might have risen too high, too fast on improving U.S. economic data which might have been overinflated because of a warmer-than-expected winter and early spring. 
Longer-term Melek said he’s more positive on commodities as the Fed is likely to keep interest rates ultra-low into 2014 and the expansion of the Fed/European Central Bank monetary base will keep the global financial system flush with cash for a while.
“Also, with the global economy expanding in a more solid way in the second part of the year coupled with energy remaining high and feeding into inflation, investors should get more excited about gold as a safe haven well into 2013,” he said.


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## alshangiti (30 مارس 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

30 ةشقؤا 2012


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## alshangiti (7 أبريل 2012)

*http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

٦ ابرل. 2012.


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## alshangiti (14 أبريل 2012)

13 april 2012 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (17 أبريل 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

13 april 2012


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## alshangiti (29 أبريل 2012)

يشعر تجار الذهب بالمزيد من التفاؤل بعد قيام البنوك المركزية بزيادة احتياطياتها من سبائك الذهب، في الوقت الذي زادت فيه صناديق التحوط من مراهناتها على ارتفاع أسعار الذهب لأول مرة في الأسابيع الثلاثة الماضية.

توقع 14 من 28 محللا قامت «بلومبرغ» باستطلاع آرائهم ارتفاع أسعار الذهب في الأسبوع القادم، بينما أكد تسعة منهم أن الأسعار ستظل كما هي من دون تغيير، وهو أعلى معدل خلال أسبوعين. قامت المكسيك وروسيا وتركيا بإضافة نحو 44.8 طن من الذهب إلى احتياطياتها، والتي تصل قيمتها إلى 2.39 مليار دولار، في شهر مارس وذلك طبقا لبيانات صندوق النقد الدولي. رفع مديرو الصندوق ما يشار إليه بمسمى صافي المراكز طويلة المدى بمعدل 2.5 في المائة في الأسبوع الذي انتهى في 17 أبريل وذلك طبقا لهيئة تداول السلع الآجلة.



أعلن بن بيرنانكي، رئيس مصرف الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي، يوم 25 أبريل أنه مستعد لـ«اتخاذ مزيد من الإجراءات» لتحفيز الاقتصاد، إذا تطلب الأمر ذلك، بينما قام بنك اليابان امس بالتوسع في خطة مشتريات السندات بقيمة 10 تريليونات ين ياباني (124 مليار دولار). وارتفعت أسعار الذهب بعدما قام مصرف الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي بشراء ديون قيمتها 2.3 تريليون دولار في مجموعتين من إجراءات التيسير الكمي التي انتهت في شهر يونيو (حزيران) 2011. ووقعت المملكة المتحدة في أول حالة ركود مزدوج منذ سبعينيات القرن العشرين، وذلك طبقا للبيانات التي نشرت في 25 أبريل، بينما توقع صندوق النقد الدولي انتقال عدوى الركود المزدوج إلى 17 دولة في منطقة اليورو.

ويقول مارك أوبيرن، المدير التنفيذي لشركة «غولدكور ليميتد» التي يقع مقرها في دبلن: «لا يبدو أن السياسات النقدية الفضفاضة التي تم استخدامها في الأعوام الأخيرة سوف تنتهي قريبا». ويضيف أوبيرن، والذي تعمل شركته في مجال السمسرة، حيث تقوم ببيع وتخزين كل شيء بداية من العملات الذهبية الإنجليزية التي تزن ربع أوقية حتى السبائك التي تزن 400 أوقية: «لا يبدو أن المشكلات في منطقة اليورو ستنتهي عما قريب. لقد مررنا بفترة كساد، وكنا ننصح عملاءنا بأن يقوموا بالشراء دائما في أوقات الكساد».

وارتفعت أسعار الذهب بنسبة 5.7 في المائة لتصل إلى 1655.50 دولار للأوقية هذا العام حسب معلومات قسم كومكس التابع لبورصة نيويورك التجارية، لكن سعره الآن يقل عن أعلى سعر وصل إليه في العام الحالي بنسبة 7.7 في المائة. وارتفع مؤشر «جي إس سي آي» الخاص بمؤسسة «ستاندرد أند بورز»، والذي يضم 24 مادة خام، بمعدل 5.6 في المائة، بينما ارتفع مؤشر «مورغان ستانلي كابيتال إنترناشيونال» العالمي، المعروف اختصارا بـ«إم إكس دبليو دي»، للأسهم بمعدل 9.5 في المائة. ويشير مؤشر «بنك أوف أميركا» إلى ارتفاع قيمة سندات الخزانة بنسبة تقل عن 0.1 في المائة.

ويشعر متداولو الخيارات أيضا بالتفاؤل، حيث إن غالبية العقود الآجلة التي يتم تداولها في قسم كومكس تمنح الحق في الشراء عند سعر 2,200 دولار بحلول يوليو (تموز)، وهو سعر أعلى بنسبة 33 في المائة من الأسعار الحالية. وتمنح عقود الخيار السبعة الأكثر شهرة الملاك الحق في الشراء بأسعار تتراوح بين 1,800 إلى 2,300 دولار، وذلك طبقا لبيانات البورصة.

وتنضم البنوك المركزية للمستثمرين في شراء الذهب، حيث أضافت تلك البنوك 439.7 طن إلى احتياطياتها في عام 2011، وهو المعدل الأكبر خلال ما يقرب من خمسة عقود، وذلك طبقا لتقديرات مجلس الذهب العالمي الذي يقع مقره في لندن، والذي يتوقع أيضا احتمال قيام تلك البنوك المركزية بشراء كمية مماثلة من الذهب في العام الحالي. قامت المكسيك بشراء 16.8 طن من الذهب في الشهر الماضي، بينما أضافت روسيا 16.5 طن إلى احتياطياتها وزاد الاحتياطي التركي بمقدار 11.5 طن. قامت كازاخستان وأوكرانيا وطاجاكستان وبيلاروسيا بزيادة احتياطياتها من الذهب أيضا، وذلك طبقا لصندوق النقد الدولي.

وفي صناديق التحوط زاد المضاربون المراهنات على مكاسب الأسعار إلى 112,275 من العقود الآجلة والخيارات، وهو ما يعد ارتفاعا عن آخر انخفاض تشهده تلك المراهنات خلال ثلاث سنوات والذي حدث في الأسبوع الماضي، وذلك طبقا لبيانات هيئة تداول السلع الآجلة الأميركية. لا يزال المركز الصافي طويل المدى أقل بـ56 في المائة من أعلى مستوى وصل إليه في شهر أغسطس (آب)، وهو ما يوفر «مساحة واسعة» لمراكز جديدة طويلة الأجل، وذلك طبقا لتقرير كتبه أمس إيديل تولي، محلل في «يو بي إس إيه جي» في لندن.

وتشير البيانات التي قامت «بلومبرغ» بتجميعها إلى أن المستثمرين يمتلكون 2389.6 طن من المنتجات المتداولة في البورصة المدعومة بسبائك الذهب، في إطار 0.9 في المائة من الرقم القياسي الذي تم الوصول إليه في 13 مارس (آذار). ينخفض الطلب على العملات الذهبية، حيث باعت هيئة صك العملة في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية 17,000 أوقية منها في الشهر الحالي حتى الآن، مقابل 75,917 أوقية في الاثني عشر شهرا الماضية، حسبما تشير البيانات الموجودة على موقع الهيئة الإلكتروني.

وأعلن مصرف الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي منذ يومين أن النمو سوف «يتحسن تدريجيا»، حيث تظهر أسواق العمل والإسكان بعض الإشارات على حدوث تحسن. تمت إضافة نحو 4.99 تريليون دولار إلى قيمة مبيعات الأسهم العالمية هذا العام، في إشارة تدعو للتفاؤل بأن العالم سيتجنب التعرض لموجة ركود أخرى. رفع صندوق النقد الدولي من توقعات النمو العالمي الخاص به إلى 3.5 في المائة من 3.3 في المائة في 17 أبريل، بينما توقع حدوث انكماش بمعدل 0.3 في المائة في منطقة اليورو.

وتقول كارول فيرغسون، محللة في «فايرفاكس آي إس» في لندن: «إذا صدق الناس بقرب حدوث انتعاش في الولايات المتحدة، أعتقد أنهم سيتجهون إلى شراء الأسهم، ومن المرجح بشدة أن يقل الطلب على الذهب».

وربما يحاول بعض المستثمرين الآخرين تجنب الذهب، حيث انخفضت العقود المفتوحة، أو العقود المعلقة، في العقود الآجلة الأميركية إلى 395,389 في 24 أبريل، وهو أقل معدل تسجله منذ سبتمبر (أيلول) 2009، طبقا لبيانات البورصة، بما يتناقض مع العقود المفتوحة الخاصة بالسلع الأربع والعشرين التي يتضمنها مؤشر «جي إس سي آي» الخاص بمؤسسة «ستاندرد أند بورز»، والذي ارتفع بمعدل 18 في المائة هذه العام.

تراجعت أسعار السبائك من المستوى القياسي الذي حققته في شهر سبتمبر، وهو 1923.70 دولار، ليصبح أقل من المتوسط المتحرك خلال 200 يوم، وهو الأمر الذي يراه بعض المستثمرين إشارة لاحتمال حدوث المزيد من الانخفاض. يقول مارك أوبيرن إن هذا الانخفاض قد يعتبر بمثابة «فرصة للشراء». ظلت الأسعار أعلى من معدلاتها منذ بداية عام 2009 وحتى نهاية العام الماضي.

وأكد مصرف «غولدمان ساكس غروب» في تقرير أصدرته في 24 أبريل أن سعر تداول الذهب سيصل إلى 1940 دولارا خلال 12 شهرا، بينما توقع البنك ثبات أسعار المواد الخام على المدى القريب، وهو الأمر الذي يعزى بصورة جزئية إلى مخاوف الديون الأوروبية.

وفي ما يتعلق بالسلع الأخرى، توقع 12 من 28 متداولا ومحللا قامت «بلومبرغ» باستطلاع آرائهم ارتفاع أسعار النحاس في الأسبوع المقبل، بينما توقع 8 متداولين ومحللين ثبات الأسعار. وارتفعت أسعار النحاس للتسليم في خلال 3 أشهر، بمعدل 9.8 في المائة لتصل إلى 8347 دولارا للطن هذا العام في مؤشر التعاقدات الرئيسي الخاص ببورصة لندن للمعادن.

وأك


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## alshangiti (4 مايو 2012)

3 April 2012. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (6 مايو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

http://www.cameronhanover.com/2012/05/gold-options-report-may-4-2012/


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## alshangiti (10 مايو 2012)

10 may 2012 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (16 مايو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
اسعار الذهب. ١٦. مايو. ٢٠١٣


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## alshangiti (26 مايو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (26 مايو 2012)

قلل خبراء في بيع الذهب من التوقعات التي تتنبأ بانتكاسة كبرى في أسعار الذهب، مشيرين إلى أن أسواق الذهب العالمية تمر حالياً بفترات تصحيح طبيعية بعد أن سجلت نمواً متواصلاً خلال السنوات الخمس الماضية، متوقعين ارتداداً لسعر الذهب قبل نهاية العام الحالي.

فيما أكد مستثمرون أن المملكة لم تتأثر بما تعانيه بعض الأسواق من نقص المعدن الخام عيار 24، مشددين على أن التجار السعوديين مستعدون لتوفير أي كمية تحتاجها السوق المحلية.

وأوضح عضو لجنة الذهب والمجوهرات في مجلس الغرف السعودية علي باطرفي أن الأسواق في المملكة شهدت إقبالاً كبيراً منذ بداية العام بعد أن تراجع سعر الذهب من مستوياته القياسية بالإضافة إلى علميات الشراء الضخمة التي ساهم فيها الحجاج والمعتمرون.

وأبان أن المستهلكين باتوا على إدراك أكبر بتأثيرات وتغيرات أسعار الذهب مما ساهم في تسارع وتيرة الشراء لاقتناء المجوهرات أو الاحتفاظ بالمعدن كنوع من الاستثمار الآمن.

وفيما يخص التحذيرات حول نقص المعدن الخام في الأسواق القريبة وموقف السوق السعودية من الذهب الخام أكد “باطرفي” أن الذهب الخام عيار 24 متوفر بأكثر من الكميات التي يطلبها المستثمرون، مشيراً إلى استعداد كافة التجار في المملكة لتوفير أي كميات تطلبها السوق من الخام في أقل من 48 ساعة.

وقال “إن توفر الخام في المملكة مطمئن جداً عكس بقية الدول التي تعاني من نقص في كميات الذهب الخام”.

وعن التذبذبات الحادة التي تشهدها تداولات الذهب خلال الأشهر الماضية ذكر باطرفي أن معدن الذهب ذو طابع عالمي وسريع التأثر والتأثير بالأحداث الجيوسياسية في العالم بالإضافة إلى الأزمات الاقتصادية وارتباطه الوثيق بالعملات الرئيسية مثل الدولار واليورو.

وأكد أن الأزمة اليونانية وتخفيض التصنيفات الائتمانية للعديد من البنوك الأوروبية ساهم في إقبال كبار المستثمرين والصناديق السيادية والبنوك المركزية على بيع الذهب لأسباب مختلفة منها وصول الذهب إلى أهداف بيع تاريخية سعياً لجني الأرباح المضمونة بالإضافة إلى تسييل بعض البنوك الأوروبية الذهب للحصول على السيولة النقدية علاوةً على التوقعات باستمرار ارتفاع صرف الدولار الأميركي مقابل اليورو في ظل استمرار أزمة الديون الأوروبية.

وأوضح أن عمليات البيع بدأت قبل وصول سعر الأونصة حاجز ألفي دولار العام الماضي حيث شهد المعدن علميات بيع كثيفة عند مستوى 1921 دولارا للأونصة لتبدأ بعدها عمليات التصحيح الطبيعية حيث فقدت الأونصة الواحدة نحو 400 دور من قيمتها أواخر العام الماضي.

وفي جانب مناطق الدعم لاستقرار الذهب قال باطرفي: الأونصة وصلت الأسبوع الماضي إلى نحو 1527 دولارا وارتدت جزئياً إلى نحو 1581 دولارا.

لكنه أضاف: يصعب التكهن بحركة الذهب خلال الأيام المقبلة خاصة مع ارتفاع النشاط المضاربي من بعض المستثمرين لجني الأرباح السريعة بالاستفادة من شدة التحركات وشدد على أن الوضع في اليونان والأزمة الأوروبية هي المؤثر الرئيس في حركة الذهب.

وتوقع أن يستمر الذهب في المناطق الحالية للأشهر المقبلة قبل أن يبدأ حركة ارتداد قوية بفعل دعومات المستثمرين طويلي الأجل بعمليات الشراء في المعدن كونها تعد فرصة نادرة للاستثمار من المستويات الحالية.

بدوره حذرعضو اللجنة الوطنية للذهب والمستثمر في المجوهرات عبداللطيف النمر في تصريح إلى صغار المستثمرين من مغبة المضاربات في الذهب خلال الفترة الحالية التي تشهد تذبذبات لضعف العائد المادي من المضاربة ولحاجتها لسيولة عالية جداً ولمخاطر مقارعة الصناديق الضخمة وأشار إلى أن الشراء بالأسعار الحالية يعد فرصة جيدة للمستثمرين فئة متوسط وطويل الأجل.

وأكد النمر أن تباطؤ تراجع الأسعار الأسابيع الماضية يشير إلى قرب ارتداد الذهب إن لم تحدث تطورات سياسية أو تفاقم للأزمة اليونانية خاصة والأوربية عامة وأبان أن المستثمرين سيستبقون أي ارتداد بعمليات شراء مكثفة لاقتناص السعر الأقل مـن الأسـواق الذي عادة ما تبدأ به الصناديق السيادية والبنوك المركزية للدول التي بـاعت الذهب عند 1900 دولار للأونصة.

وأعتبر أن الأسعار الحالية تعد منطقية جدا لأن سعر الذهب الحالي يحمل جزءاً تضخمياً مثله مثل تضخم أسعار النفط ومواد الغذاء والعقار والمعادن.

ولفت إلى أن بيوع الذهب نهاية العام الماضي كانت لأسباب جني الأرباح لمستثمرين طويلي الأجل بالإضافة إلى المخاوف التي يعانيها المستثمرون في العملات النقدية التي تشهد تحولات كبيرة جداً.


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## alshangiti (6 يونيو 2012)

Gold today. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (7 يونيو 2012)

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold Ends Solidly Up, Hits 4-Week High, on Bullish Outside Market Forces
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120606JW_pm.html


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## alshangiti (7 يونيو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (16 يونيو 2012)

Gold price 15 June 2012 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (18 يونيو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (20 يونيو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (11 يوليو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (16 يوليو 2012)

13 july 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (16 يوليو 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_july13.2012.html

Kitco Survey Participants Have Slight Bias For Higher Gold Prices Next Week


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## alshangiti (24 يوليو 2012)

Gold today. 1576.5. $ per oz. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (1 أغسطس 2012)

What happens to gold. 
Commentators' Corner with Lawrence Roulston


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## alshangiti (10 أغسطس 2012)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (12 سبتمبر 2012)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (13 سبتمبر 2012)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٧٥٨.٧٧. دولار للاونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2012)

Copper price. 

Copper


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٧٦٧. دولار للا ونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (28 سبتمبر 2012)

AM-PM Roundup with Jim Wyckoff


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## alshangiti (4 أكتوبر 2012)

Live Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium Quote Spot Price Chart - Kitco


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## alshangiti (16 أكتوبر 2012)

Gold price today. 

Live Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium Quote Spot Price Chart - Kitco


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## alshangiti (19 أكتوبر 2012)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (23 أكتوبر 2012)

gold price today 1707 $per oz Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (25 أكتوبر 2012)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.htmlالذهب اليوم 1713 دولار للاونصة


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## alshangiti (29 أكتوبر 2012)

Gold price today. 1708. $ per oz. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (31 أكتوبر 2012)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX
Gold price today. 1724.4. $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (28 نوفمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٧١٧. دولار للاونصة. 
24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days


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## alshangiti (29 نوفمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٧٢٥. دولار للاونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (30 نوفمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٧١٠ دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (5 ديسمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٩٣. دولار للاونصة. 

*Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (6 ديسمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم ١٦٩٩ دولار. للاونصة. N time 12-55. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (6 ديسمبر 2012)

Editor's note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

Gold Update: Gold Rebounds on Some Fresh Safe-Haven Demand, Bargain Hunting
Thursday December 6, 2012 10:38 AM

(Kitco News)*- Comex gold futures have rebounded from a morning sell off following news the European Central Bank has cut its economic growth forecast for the European Union. At its monthly meeting Thursday, the ECB said that Euro zone economic growth will be stagnant to declining during 2013. The ECB projects overall EU economic growth at minus 0.3% during 2013. Just three months ago the ECB projected overall EU economic growth at 0.5% during 2013. That news sunk the Euro currency and boosted the U.S. dollar index. Gold saw a bounce on short covering, bargain hunting and fresh safe-haven investment demand. Comex February gold last traded up $3.10 an ounce at $1,696.90.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]


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## alshangiti (7 ديسمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم ١٦٩٨ دولار للاونصة
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (7 ديسمبر 2012)

Editor's note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Weaker amid Bearish Outside Markets; U.S. Jobs Report Looms
Friday December 7, 2012 8:05 AM

(Kitco News)*- Comex gold futures prices are trading modestly lower in early dealings Friday. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the precious metals Friday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are weaker. The market place awaits Friday morning’s U.S. employment report for direction. February gold last traded down $4.70 an ounce at $1,697.10. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.40 at $1,696.00. *March Comex silver last traded down $0.259 at $32.855 an ounce.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report for November may or may not be a market mover. This particular report was likely skewed by the super storm Sandy that hit the U.S. east coast a few weeks ago and therefore be somewhat less market-sensitive. Forecasts call for the key non-farm payrolls figure to have risen by 80,000 in November.

In overnight trading, European stocks traded not far from unchanged ahead of the U.S. jobs report. More dour economic news came out of the European Union Friday, as the German Bundesbank cut Germany’s economic growth forecast for this year and next year, including saying the German economy could slip into recession in the next few months. The Bundesbank said German economic growth in 2012 would be 0.7%, down from its earlier estimate of 1.0% annual growth. For 2013, the German central bank forecast German economic growth at 0.4%, from its earlier estimate of 1.6% annual growth. That news sunk the Euro currency.

In the U.S., the focus of the market place remains on the “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that is fast approaching. With Congress now on recess again, fresh news on the matter has died down a bit. While the market place presently perceives odds are higher than not that there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff, the overall situation continues to be a bearish drag on many markets, including the raw commodities and stock markets.

The market place is looking ahead to next week’s last Federal Reserve FOMC meeting of the year, on December 10 and 11. The “Operation Twist” program ends and the FOMC members must decide whether to extend the bond-buying program. Many believe the Fed will continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries and implement “QE4” at next week’s meeting. That would be raw-commodity market bullish, including bullish for the precious metals markets.

The U.S. dollar index is higher again Friday morning, supported by short covering, some safe-haven buying and by the dour economic news coming out of Europe late this week. The greenback bulls are gaining some fresh upside technical momentum late this week. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower Friday. The crude oil bulls are fading late this week. These two key “outside markets” will continue to impact the precious metals markets on a daily basis.

U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include the jobs report, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and consumer credit.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,697.00 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,694.25.

Technically, gold futures bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently and need to show fresh power soon to keep their technical edge. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid chart resistance at the November high of $1,757.10. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid chart support at the November low of $1,674.70. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,708.30 and then at $1,720.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,686.00 and then at $1,680.00.

March silver futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are also fading a bit and need to show more power soon. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $34.49 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $32.50. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $33.33 and then at $33.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $32.585 and then at $32.50.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.


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## alshangiti (13 ديسمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٩٦٢.٦. دولار للاونصة.
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 ديسمبر 2012)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٦٦.٨ دولار للاونصة.

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (3 يناير 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٦٨. دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (3 يناير 2013)

Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session higher and hit a fresh two-week high Wednesday, in the wake of an agreement by U.S. lawmakers overnight that avoided the dreaded fiscal cliff. Short covering, bargain hunting and some fresh speculative buying interest were seen in the gold and silver markets Wednesday. It was a “risk-on” trading day in many markets as the world market place breathed a sigh of relief that U.S. lawmakers came to a 12th-hour agreement on the fiscal cliff. February gold last traded up $13.20 an ounce at $1,689.00. Spot gold was last quoted up $13.50 at $1,689.25.* March Comex silver last traded up $0.793 at $31.025 an ounce.

Many markets worldwide, including Asian, European and U.S. stocks were cheered by U.S. lawmakers coming to agreement on the fiscal cliff matter that had been overhanging the market place for weeks. U.S. lawmakers had to reach a deal to avoid a series of tax increases and spending cuts that would have automatically gone into effect this week. The market place Wednesday took on a “risk-on” attitude that benefitted the precious metals.

The U.S. fiscal cliff agreement overshadowed some fresh, dour economic news coming out of the European Union overnight. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI fell to 46.1 in December from 46.2 in November, according to the Markit data company. Any reading below 50.00 shows contraction. However, look for the market place to now focus more on the European Union and its sovereign debt crisis, now that the U.S. fiscal cliff matter has been temporarily resolved.

In Asia, the Hong Kong stock market hit a fresh 19-month high on some more positive economic news coming out of China. China’s manufacturing sector continues to expand, as its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.6 in December. The recent better Chinese economic data has been an underlying bullish factor for the precious metals markets.

The U.S. dollar index was firmer Wednesday afternoon after being under pressure early on. Some better U.S. economic data issued Wednesday did support the greenback. The dollar index bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were higher Wednesday and hit a fresh 2.5-month high. The crude oil bulls have upside near-term technical momentum and gained more on Wednesday. These two key “outside markets” will continue to impact the precious metals markets on a daily basis.

The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,693.75.

Technically, February gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Wednesday and hit another fresh two-week high. Prices have climbed back above the key 200-day moving average, which is a bullish clue. However, the gold bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $1,636.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,695.40 and then at 1,700.00. First support is seen at 1,684.10 and then at $1,674.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

March silver futures prices closed nearer the session high Wednesday. Short covering, bargain hunting and fresh speculative buying were featured. The silver bulls gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum Wednesday but the bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $29.635. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $31.535 and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at $30.50 and then at today’s low of $30.225. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 840 points at 373.65 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh 2.5-month high. Copper bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside power Wednesday. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 384.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 365.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 375.90 cents and then at 378.55 cents. First support is seen at 372.10 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]


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## alshangiti (4 يناير 2013)

M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Sharply Down, Hits 4.5-Mo. Low, in Wake of Bearish FOMC Minutes


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## alshangiti (4 يناير 2013)

(Kitco News)*- Comex gold futures prices are trading sharply lower and hit a fresh 4.5-month low in early dealings Friday. The precious metals bulls are feeling the recoil from Thursday afternoon’s more hawkish FOMC minutes. A stronger U.S. dollar index is also weighing heavily on the gold and silver markets Friday morning. February gold last traded down $38.40 an ounce at $1,636.20. Spot gold was last quoted down $27.70 at $1,636.50. *March Comex silver last traded down $1.195 at $29.52 an ounce.

The minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, held in early December, were released Thursday afternoon and they somewhat surprisingly revealed several FOMC members believe that quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy—specifically its hefty monthly bond-buying program--should be wound down during 2013. Fed Chairman Bernanke has said in recent months that interest rates will not rise before 2015. Thus, many market watchers had just assumed the U.S. central bank would also keep what has been called by many “QE Infinity” in place well beyond this year.

However, the recent better U.S. economic data readings have been an early clue the Fed should be considering taking its foot off the gas regarding aggressive monetary policy easing, which does carry with it problematic inflationary implications. Nevertheless, Thursday’s news has spooked the commodity market bulls and in turn has given the U.S. dollar index a major boost higher. The past four years of very easy U.S. monetary policy have been an underlying bullish factor for the raw commodity sector.

It’s my bias that the precious metals have seen a knee-jerk reaction and have over-reacted to the FOMC minutes. When looking at the matter from a demand perspective, the world’s largest economy growing at a faster pace augurs for increasing consumer demand for commodities. Also, better U.S. economic strength will help the other major world economies boost their own growth. It would not surprise me to see this latest big dip in gold and silver prices to become a bargain-hunting buying opportunity.

In other news, the most important U.S. economic report of the month is due on Friday morning—the Labor Department’s employment situation report. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to have risen by 150,000 in December, with the unemployment rate is forecast at 7.7%, which is unchanged from last month. A strong U.S. jobs report Friday would further bolster the case for those Fed officials who reckon the central bank should back off on further quantitative easing measures.

In European news overnight, Euro zone inflation held steady in December, at* a 2.2% annualized rate—the same as in November.

The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher Friday morning and hit a fresh four-week high overnight, in the wake of the green-back-bullish FOMC minutes. The dollar bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum, which is also bearish for the precious metals. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower Friday morning on more profit taking after hitting a 2.5-month high on Wednesday. The crude oil bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. These two key “outside markets” will continue to impact the precious metals markets on a daily basis.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,632.25 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,679.50.

Technically, February gold futures see a three-month-old downtrend in place on the daily bar chart as prices hit a fresh 4.5-month low overnight. Fresh near-term chart damage was inflicted as prices dropped below what was strong technical support at the December low of $1,636.00. Gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, for the longer-term “buy-and-hold” traders and investors, it’s important to remember that the longer-term price trend in gold remains up, as it has been for nearly 12 years. It would take a drop in nearby gold futures prices below $1,500.00 an ounce to begin to call into question the longer-term price uptrend in the gold market. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,650.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,664.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,626.00 and then at $1,615.00.

March silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh downside momentum Friday as prices hit a fresh 4.5-month low. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been re-established. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $31.535 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $30.00 and then at the overnight high of $30.185. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $29.24 and then at $29.00.


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## alshangiti (4 يناير 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٦٣١.٨ دولار للاونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (6 يناير 2013)

The world gold production in 2011 was 2700 tons of gold (estimated by the USGS). Gold production has again reached its peak in 2001 (2 600 tonnes of gold). The question is whether production will again stagnate at this level.

I. Gold production in the world in 2011.
Among the eight largest gold producers 'historical' in 2011, six have increased their production and two that fell.
1° Gold production in China grew 10 tons of gold (+2.9%), from 345 to 355 tons of gold.
2° Gold production in Australia increased by 9 tons of gold (+3.45%), 261 to 270 tons of gold.
3° Gold production from the U.S. increased 6 tons of gold (+2.6%), it increased from 231 to 237 tons of gold in 2011.
4° Gold production in Russia increased by 8 tons of gold (+4.17%), it increased from 192 to 200 tons of gold.
5° Gold production in South Africa increased by 1 tonne gold (+0.53%), it increased from 189 to 190 tons of gold.
6° Gold production in Peru fell 14 tonnes of gold (-8.5%), it increased from 164 to 150 tons of gold.
7° Gold production in Canada increased by 19 tons of gold (+20.9%), it increased from 91 to 110 tons of gold.
8° Gold production in Indonesia fell by 20 tonnes of gold (17%), it increased from 120 to 100 tons of gold.
Gold production of these eight producers 'historical' increased from 1 593 to 1 612 tonnes of gold, an increase of 1.19%. At the same time, the world gold production increased by 140 tonnes of gold, or +5.47%. These are, once again, the small gold-producing countries that experienced the strongest growth. Their gold production increased by 121 tonnes of gold, or +12.5%.

II. Atomization of the world gold production.
The share of small gold producers increased since the beginning of the decline in gold production in South Africa in the early 70s, she rose from under 10% in 1970 to over 40% in 2011. But these small gold producing countries that are over a hundred just reach the level of production (1088 tons of gold) of South Africa from 1969 to 1970 (1,000 tonnes of gold). This fragmentation of world gold production has important consequences in terms of production costs. It was much easier and rational to produce 1,000 tons of gold on the Witwatersrand, in a 100 km radius around Johannesburg (economy of scale, staff, etc.) than on the entire globe with a scattered mining everywhere. Today, production of gold has turned into Mozaique globally, it produces gold, but in smaller quantities in numerous mines far from each other.
To summarize: the continually rising price of gold for 10 years has allowed the opening of many small gold mines around the world. They are often less profitable and therefore in a more precarious situation. They are much more sensitive to changes in gold prices and rising production costs.

III. Prospects for production and gold prices.
In 2010, about gold production in 2009, I indicated to you that gold production would likely increase 2, 3 years. In summary, this increase was rooted in the rising price of an ounce of gold, or temporary stagnation in production costs, the increase in demand (2008 crisis) and in producing polymetallic (increase in demand for industrial metals: copper, zinc).
Today, at horizon 1, 2, 3 years we should have an opposite phenomenon which should lead to the start of the decline in world gold production.
Unlike 1980, gold production instead of continuing to increase for 20 years to offset the decline in gold prices (this is not technically possible), should fall more or less rapidly. According to economic models "classic" the price of gold would collapse because of the long term sustained increase in gold production for at least a decade (yes, really).
Do not panic! Here things will go differently (nothing's the same since 1998-2001). With the decline in gold prices, increased production costs (all investments lead to oil ...) gold production, instead of increasing to compensate for falling prices should drop quickly (it will be a anomaly). So fast that it will have the effect of a cardiac defibrillator on the falling price of an ounce of gold. For today, structurally, global gold production is no longer the same and will not react the same way as in the past, due in particular to the fragmentation of production (is a shortcut, because the situation is "a bit more complex").



To summarize in three points :
1 ° The current drop in the price of gold (a consequence of the increase in world gold production from 2008 to 2011) is normal, temporary, or even desirable (we avoid a bubble).
2 ° The decline in production that will follow in one, two, three years is an anomaly, as usually expected to increase sustainable production and depress investors for one to two decades.
3 ° Then the decline in world gold production will cause a new wave of rising gold prices (I'll post a topic in due course).

If you are an investor, you wait. If you are a responsible mining you protect yourself from rising energy prices (and let them know your shareholders) will be the No. 1 enemy of your margins in the coming years ...

If you want to receive direct my next topic on the price of gold (or oil) you simply sign up for my free mailing list to this address.


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## alshangiti (14 يناير 2013)

Gold today 1666.9 $ per oz. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (14 يناير 2013)

(Kitco News)*- Comex gold and silver futures prices are moderately higher in early U.S. trading Monday. Traders and investors are stepping in to do some short covering and bargain hunting to start the new trading week. There has been a modest increase in investor and trader risk appetite Monday, which is supporting the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals. February gold last traded up $10.60 an ounce at $1,671.10. Spot gold was last quoted up $8.70 at $1,672.00. *March Comex silver last traded up $0.437 at $30.845 an ounce.

Most commodity markets are trading higher early Monday. Investor risk appetite has modestly improved to start the new year. It is likely that fresh speculative money that had been on the sidelines is now starting to flow back into risk assets like raw commodities, albeit at a cautious pace so far in January.

In overnight news, European stocks markets and the Euro currency were lifted overnight on ideas the European Union sovereign debt crisis has turned the corner toward recovery. The Paris-based OECD reported overnight that the Euro zone economic slowdown has bottomed out and that other major world economies are likely to see better growth in the coming months. Gains in European markets were limited by a weak Euro zone industrial production report Monday that showed a 0.3% decline from October to November.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer early Monday, on a corrective, short-covering bounce from recent strong losses. Prices did hit a fresh three-week low early Monday. The greenback bears still have downside near-term technical momentum, and that’s an underlying supportive factor for the precious metals. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly firmer Monday morning. Prices late last week hit a four-month high and the crude bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. That, too, is a bullish factor for the metals markets.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak at an event in Michigan.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,667.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,669.50.

Technically, February gold futures still see a three-month-old downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests the bulls are working on forging a near-term low, but they have more work to do to confirm such. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,695.40. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $1,626.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,678.80 and then at $1,684.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,659.50 and then at $1,650.00.

March silver bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, price action recently suggests prices have put in a near-term bottom. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $31.535 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $29.24. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $30.95 and then at $31.225. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.38 and then at $30.00.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.


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## alshangiti (16 يناير 2013)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٨١. دولار للاونصة.


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## alshangiti (16 يناير 2013)

Editor's note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Weaker on Chart Consolidation, Firmer U.S. Dollar Index
Wednesday January 16, 2013 8:21 AM

(Kitco News)*- Comex gold futures prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, on some technical chart consolidation following recent price gains. The firmer U.S. dollar index is also a slight negative for the precious metals Wednesday morning. February gold last traded down $8.00 an ounce at $1,675.90. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.20 at $1,676.25. *March Comex silver last traded down $0.364 at $31.165 an ounce.

The precious metals markets may react to a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due out Wednesday. Due for release is the MBA mortgage applications survey, the consumer price index, real earnings, Treasury international capital data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, the NAHB housing index and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.

In overnight news, U.S., European and Asian stocks were weaker and the Euro currency was firmer. U.S. corporate earnings reports are presently in the world spotlight. Also, European auto manufacturers said Wednesday sales of their cars in the European Union were at a 17-year low, dropping by 8% in 2012. The World Bank said late Tuesday that the U.S. tax and spending debacle is constraining worldwide economic growth. The Euro was supported by a European Central Bank official saying the Euro’s exchange rate was not too high. The market place is awaiting Friday’s report from China on its fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth rate.

Interestingly, the German central bank, the Bundesbank, on Wednesday said it is bringing back to Frankfurt a significant portion of its gold reserves that have been stored in New York City, and all of its reserves held in France. The move will be gradual. The Bundesbank said the move is not because it expects a worldwide crisis or because it wants to become more active in the gold market. No matter what the Bundesbank officials say, it’s obvious the move is because it has less confidence in the precious metal being stored outside German borders. I find it interesting that so many so-called investment advisors and experts do not advocate individual investors holding much gold, if any, as an investment asset. Yet, the central banks of the world hold massive amounts of gold, and many of them are presently in an accumulation phase.

The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer early Wednesday, on some more short-covering from recent losses. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and that’s an underlying supportive factor for the precious metals. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady Wednesday morning. The crude oil bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. That, too, is a bullish underlying factor for the metals markets.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,679.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,680.50.

Technically, February gold futures still see a three-month-old downtrend in place on the daily bar chart—but now just barely. Gold bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests the bulls are working on forging a near-term low, but they have more work to do to confirm such. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the January high of $1,695.40. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,650.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,684.00 and then at $1,690.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,666.20 and then at this week’s low of $1,659.50.

March silver has seen price action recently that suggests the market has put in a near-term bottom. Bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $31.495 and then at this week’s high of $31.615. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $30.965 and then at $30.79.


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## alshangiti (17 يناير 2013)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX

الذهب اليوم ١٦٨٨. دولار للاونصة.


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## alshangiti (17 يناير 2013)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were climbing Thursday, coming off early session lows after a round of U.S. economic indicators reported steady improvement in the housing and labor markets. Gold dropped 70 cents, or 0.04%, on Wednesday.

More on KGC
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Lose the Gloom and DoomGold Prices Slip on World Bank's Soft Economic Outlook (Update 1)
Gold for February delivery was adding $4.30 to $1,687.50 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,689.70 and as low as $1,666.40 an ounce, while the spot price was adding $8.10.



See if (KGC) is in our portfolio

Gold prices on the Comex division slumped at the opening of the market, but have moved into positive territory in the first couple hours of trading.

"Principally today, anyway, the better economic reports that came out of the U.S. helping the dollar, pushing down gold a little bit," said Will Rhind, managing director at ETF Securities U.S. "We've come off that low as people have stepped in to buy it."

The U.S. dollar index was sliding 0.14% to $79.70, while silver prices for March delivery were tacking on 15 cents to $31.70 an ounce.

Housing starts rose in December to 954,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up from November's revised 851,000, according to the Census Bureau. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 12 decreased to 335,000, which also brought the four-week moving average down to 359,250.

The improving housing market has suggested greater health in the overall economy, which would suggest a move out of gold -- a safe-haven against inflation and economic uncertainty -- and into other assets. Employment reports have exhibited significant sway on the yellow metal as the Federal Reserve has tied much of its monetary policy to strength in the labor market. The Fed has reiterated its commitment to continue low federal funds rates and quantitative easing measures for as long as the labor situation exhibits soft improvement.

Gold has struggled to break out of its current trading range, which may be a result of major economies -- the eurozone, China, the United States -- beginning to reach some certainty in terms of expansion.


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## alshangiti (22 يناير 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٩٣ دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (22 يناير 2013)

Metals and Mining
Gold Prices Climb After BOJ Announces Easing
Add CommentBy Joe Deaux01/22/13 - 11:13 AM EST
Stock quotes in this article: AUY, GOLD, ABX, GLD, IAU, NEM*

inShare
2
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were higher Tuesday after the Bank of Japan announced a fresh monetary stimulus program.

More on AUY
Western Banking: Money for Nothing
Gold for February delivery was rising $3.50 to $1,690.50 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,694.30 and as low as $1,684.80 an ounce, while the spot price was losing 40 cents, according to Kitco's gold index.



See if (AUY) is in our portfolio

"Bank of Japan move signals possible inflation down the road as well as continued return to gold first weeks of the year by funds," George Gero, precious metals strategist at RBC Wealth Management, wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Silver prices for March delivery was adding 11 cents to $32.04 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar index was shedding 0.12% to $79.92.

The Bank of Japan announced it would implement an open-ended, monthly purchasing program of about $11.28 billion (¥13 trillion) of treasury bills and Japanese government bonds, which would begin in January 2014.

The central bank also announced a 2% inflation-rate target.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that existing-home sales fell to 4.94 million in December from 5.04 million in November. Consensus among economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected sales to rise at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million units.

The housing market has proven resilient in recent months in a sign that the U.S. economy has continued to strengthen despite sustained high unemployment rates and sluggish growth in the private sector.

Gold prices trend to the downside as economic indicators show signs of longer-term improvement as some investors view the yellow metal as a safe haven against economic uncertainty.

The economic calendar for this shortened week is light with initial jobless claims and a Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing index flash to print on Thursday, and a new-home report on Friday.

Gold's biggest movers in recent weeks have been announcements from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The Federal Open Market Committee -- the Fed's policy-making wing -- roiled gold prices at the beginning of January when it reported mixed sentiment on the possible early conclusion of its monetary stimulus programs.


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## alshangiti (24 يناير 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٦٩. دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (24 يناير 2013)

Comex Gold Slides On Technically Oriented Selling
24 January 2013, 14:15 p.m. 
By Allen Sykora
Of Kitco News 
Gold, Silver, Gold Price, Silver Price, Gold Rate, Gold News | Kitco

Editor's Note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

(Kitco News) - Gold futures slid Thursday, with traders characterizing the move as largely technical in nature as some longs opted to exit the market when it was unable to push up through nearby chart resistance.

Gold for February delivery closed the pit session, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, with a loss of $16.80 to $1,669.90 an ounce. March silver lost 71.7 cents to $31.722 an ounce.

“You’re seeing some recent longs come out of this market,” said Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Kingsview Financial.

This came about as prices could not generate momentum up through the 50-day moving average, he said. The session highs were right around this average the last four days. “We couldn’t get above it and then fell through yesterday’s low, so I think a lot of it is technical selling more than anything else,” Nedoss said. Shortly after the pit close, this average stood at $1,694.40.

Others also cited the inability to penetrate through $1,700 after the market came close during the last four trading days.

“From a technical perspective, the market rejected the levels just below $1,700,” said Dave Meger, director of metals trading with Vision Financial Markets. And often in futures markets when momentum stalls, there is a subsequent pullback, he continued.

This was exacerbated by several recent news items, he said, listing the decline in U.S. weekly jobless claims, higher import duties on gold in India and the U.S. House of Representatives vote Wednesday to let the Treasury keep borrowing to pay the country’s bills until mid-May, thereby removing some of the immediate safe-haven demand.

“Also, we do have a major options expiration in gold on Monday,” Meger said. “There is certainly some option-related activity going on.”

Triland Metals listed the area between $1,660 and $1,665 as the next chart support area, adding *that if this is broken, the focus would become the low for the year of $1,626. Triland pegged nearby resistance between $1,680 and $1,685.

February gold temporarily slipped just below but stabilized near the 200-day moving average of $1,667.90. “The 200-day is going to be a key thing to hold over the next couple of sessions,” Nedoss added.

March silver also could not maintain momentum over its 50-day average, he added, after getting just above this for the last few days. “That psychologically brought in some selling,” Nedoss continued. This average stands at $32.02. However, Nedoss added, March silver held near its 10-day average of $31.554.


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## alshangiti (24 يناير 2013)

Metals and Mining
Gold Prices Slump as Debt Limit Deal Raises Stability Hopes
Add CommentBy Joe Deaux01/24/13 - 12:57 PM EST
Stock quotes in this article: EGO, KGC, AAPL, GLD, IAU, ABX, AUY*

inShare
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were moving lower on Thursday after investors bet that Washington's short-term extension of the debt ceiling would lead to a deal in four months. Gold fell 0.38% on Wednesday.

More on EGO
Stocks Mixed; Apple Puts Dent in NasdaqCramer Quick Take: Microsoft: the Growth Stock of Yesteryear?
Gold for February delivery was losing $14.90 to $1,671.80 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,685.80 and as low as $1,664.20 an ounce, while the spot price was sliding $12.50, according to Kitco's gold index.



See if (EGO) is in our portfolio

Congress' decision to temporarily extend the debt limit gave investors a level of hope that legislators would reach an effective deal in the next few months to ensure that the government could continue to pay its bills, said GMG Defensive Beta Fund Co-portfolio Manager Oliver Pursche.

Thursday's move failed to push the yellow metal out of the tight trading range it has held in the past few weeks.

"Gold is in a trading range right now. What that tells me is there's no one rushing to sell, but there's no one rushing to buy either," said Pursche.

Apple's (AAPL_) fiscal first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday may have also dragged down the yellow metal on Thursday.

"Yea, Apple just kind of took the whole market with it," said Anthem Blanchard, CEO of Blanchard Vault. "I think you're seeing gold surf on the momentum of that, short term."

The iPhone seller announced earnings of $13.81 a share on revenue of $54.5 billion, after analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected $54.73 billion in revenue and profit of $13.47 a share. The revenue miss socked the company's share price in after-hours trades on Wednesday, sinking shares at one point by more than 10%.

Silver prices for March delivery were down 59 cents to $31.85 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar index was effectively unchanged at $79.96.

Gold prices rebounded off earlier lows as the euro gained momentum enough to weaken the U.S. dollar's strong session against the Japanese yen. The dollar gained to $90.04 against the yen from the prior day's close at $88.62. But the euro climbed against the dollar to $1.3372 from its previous day's close at $1.3318.


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## alshangiti (1 فبراير 2013)

الذهب اليوم. الجمعه. ١٦٦٦ دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (3 فبراير 2013)

(Kitco News)*- Gold prices are likely to remain in their current range, continuing to try and test $1,700 an ounce on the upside and the $1,650s area on the downside, but with few visible catalysts to break out of the range.

The market will look ahead to next week’s European Central Bank meeting for direction as economic data releases in the U.S. will be light, market watchers said.

Prices were up on the day and the week. Most-active April gold on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,670.60, up 0.71% on the week. March silver settled at $31.351, up 0.47% on the week.*

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 26 responded this week. Of those 26 participants, 12 see prices up, while four see prices down, and 10 see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, getting a modest boost from lower-than-expected monthly jobs data from the U.S. Department of Labor. For the month of January, the Labor Department said 157,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9%. Slightly offsetting that news was that the U.S. economy added more jobs in 2012 than previously thought.

Despite Friday’s gains, the support gold received after initial fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data showed an unexpected drop of 0.1% and a continued affirmation of bond-buying by the Federal Reserve, gold prices are still trapped under $1,700, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures.

“There are a lot of reasons why we should be higher, the weak GDP, (lackluster) employment numbers, but we’re not,” he said

For that reason, gold will likely hew to the current range of $1,700 to $1,650. “I see us still in a range. There is a chance we could try and touch $1,700, but there’s no catalyst to take it above there,” Pavilonis said.

Given this week’s price activity, several analysts said gold has been extremely sensitive to U.S. economic data. Edward Meir, commodities consultant at INTL FCStone, called gold’s action this week “a remarkable dis play of schizophrenic volatility.”

Although GDP was a surprise, for the most part, U.S. economic data has been slightly better than expected, which giving credence to those who believe the fourth-quarter contraction will likely limited and that the first-quarter data should improve. That makes “the case for buying gold less compelling,” Meir said.

Another cap on gold’s strength this week was the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which are hovering around 2%, noted UBS Analyst Joni Teves. Teves said gold has found buying interest from value-minded shoppers around the $1,640-$1,650 area, “although the stronger support should come in around the $1,625 key technical area where longer-term holders are likely to take notice.”

Looking ahead to next week, in the U.S. it’s a very light data week, with only the trade balance report, slated for release Friday, to have any passing interest.*

Of more interest will be the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Analysts at Nomura said they expect interest rates to remain unchanged. “President (Mario) Draghi might provide some soothing words … by restating that the ECB will continue providing ample liquidity for quite some time... Overall, we do not expect any change to the key language from the ECB, particularly with regards to the risks surrounding the economic outlook that we expect to remain on the downside.”

Follow me on Twitter! If you want to keep up with metals news and features, then follow me on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @dcarlsonkitco

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News [email protected]


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## alshangiti (6 فبراير 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٧٧.٨ دولار للاونصة.
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (6 فبراير 2013)

Updated from 11:54 a.m. EST with settlement prices

More on GLD
Barrick Gold Corporation Stock Hold Recommendation Reiterated (ABX)Gold Prices Turn Negative (Update 1)
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices fluctuated along the flatline Wednesday before a late-session bump higher as the U.S. dollar strengthened on rising worries in Europe.

Gold for April delivery tacked on $5.30 to settle at $1,678.80 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,680.40 and as low as $1,668.80 an ounce, while the spot price was adding $4, according to Kitco's gold index.

See if (GLD) is in our portfolio



"I think that gold is looking for a bit of a catalyst right now," said Will Rhind, managing director at ETF Securities U.S., in an interview. "I think one positive is that we have pretty low speculative length in the futures market, which would tend to indicate that gold is not overbought by the futures players at this stage."

Silver prices for March delivery close effectively unchanged at $31.88 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar index was adding 0.29% to $79.77.

The greenback was strengthening Wednesday against the euro to $1.3514, which was below the prior day's close at $1.3582.

Part of the dollar's rise was due to fears re-emerging from troubled eurozone countries like Spain and Italy.

Spain's opposition Socialist Party pressed Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to step down earlier this week on allegations of corruption.

Additionally, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's challenge to rise to his old post has continued to rattle European markets. Investors are concerned about what a Berlusconi-led Italy may mean to the country's commitment to serious economic reforms with the European Central Bank.

"There's increasing concern that there might be worries developing again in Europe, as seen in the bond of Italy, Spain, Ireland, etc.," said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. "Those [woes] just remind us that when you have debt-to-GDP that's 100% or higher, that it's a problem that's not going to go away anytime soon, and despite the assurances from the ECB it is still likely to be a multi-year uphill battle."

Platinum prices continued to surge past the yellow metal on Wednesday. Platinum for April delivery popped $29.30 to close at $1,736.50 an ounce as supply constraints continued to push the white metal higher.

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## alshangiti (20 فبراير 2013)

الذهب اليوم 1579. دولار 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (10 مارس 2013)

ارتفع سعر الذهب مؤخرًا ارتفاعًا كبيرًا، لذلك ينبغي لنا أن نتعرف على أسباب ذلك الارتفاع، أو بعض تلك الأسباب لصعوبة الإحاطة بجميع العوامل المؤثرة على أسعار الذهب عالميًّا. 

كثير من المضاربين يراهنون على استمرار ارتفاع الذهب خلال الأعوام القادمة، لذلك مازال الذهب متماسك شمالًا رغم موجة التصحيح الهابطة قصيرة المدى الحالية حيث يتداول بالقرب من 1530 دولار للأوقية وعدم تسجيله لأرقامٍ قياسيةٍ جديدةٍ خلال الفترة الماضية بعد أن سجل الذهب أعلى قمة له عند 1920 دولار للأوقية تقريبًا في سبتمبر 2011، ومنذ ذلك الحين،أخذ الذهب في التداول بين مستوى دعم 1530 دولار للأوقية ومستوى مقاومة 1790 دولار للأوقية تداولًا عرضي، مما يدل على هدنة متوسطة المدى وعدم وجود ما يستدعي شراء الذهب في الوقت الراهن. 

ارتفاع الذهب خلال الفترة القادمة سيكون مرتبط ارتباطًا وثيقًا بحجم الأزمات الإقتصادية والسياسية التي ربّما تُفقد المستثمرين الثقة في العملات الورقية.






لابد أن نتكلم عن شيءٍ هامٍ قبل الحديث عن بعض العواملِ التي من شأنها أن تحرك أسعار الذهب صعودًا. ينبغي لكلِّ متاجرٍ أن يستوعب حجم وكبر أسواق المال، وكثرة العوامل المؤثرة عليها؛ لذلك ليس كلّ ما سيذكر سيؤثر على السوق تأثيرًا مباشرًا. ذلك، لأن أسواق المال متغيرة؛ بمعنى أن نظرة المستثمر للسّوق والأحداث الإقتصادية متغيرة حتى لو تكررت نفس الأحداث بعد سنوات! بكلامٍ آخر، إذا حَدث شيءٌ معين منذ سنوات وكانت نتيجته سلبية على الذهب، ليس بالضرورةِ أن يكون رد فعل المستثمر تجاه ذلك الحدث، إذا تكرر مرة آخرى،مماثل لما فُعِل سابقًأ. نستطيع أن نفهم من ما ذُكِر: أن العلاقة بين سعر الذهب خصوصًا، والأحداث أو العوامل الإقتصادية أو السياسية تختلف من وقتٍ لآخر وبالتالي رد فعل السوق يختلف بطبيعة الحال.

المتابعة الجيدة لأهم الأحداث العالمية السياسية والإقتصادية والجغرافية إلخ.. من شأنها أن تفيدنا في معرفة تحركات الذهب المستقبلية، لذلك ينبغي لنا أن لا نهمل عامل الحاضر في تحليلِ الذهب أو أي سلعة أو عملة! الماضي سيفيدنا بطبيعة الحال، لكن وحده غير كاف، وبالتالي يجب الربط ما بين الماضي والحاضر للتوقع بالمستقبل، حيث أن للحاضرِ اثره كما كان للماضي اثره عندما حدث.

سنذكر فيما يلي بعض العوامل التي من شانها أن تؤثر على أسعار الذهب عالميًّا، ولابد أن نتذكر ما ذُكِر آنفًا لما له من أهميةٍ كبيرةٍ لكلِّ متاجرٍ.

1- أزمات الدولار الأمريكي:
الدولار الضعيف يدفع المستثمرين للإستثمار في الذهب؛ لأنه على المدى البعيد سيعود عليهم بالربح، وبالتالي ضعف العملة يدفع أسعار الذهب للارتفاع. ملاحظة: ليس بالضرورة أن يصاحب ضعف الدولار ارتفاع لأسعار الذهب، ولكن من الملاحظ أن لهذه العلاقة نصيب جيد من تحركات السوق.

2- انخفاض معدلات الادخار Low Saving Rate:
عندما تقدم البنوك أسعار فائدة منخفضة، يؤدي ذلك في الغالب إلى عدم اقبال المستثمر على الادخار في البنوك؛ لأن العائد بطبية الحال منخفض. وبالتالي يساهم ذلك في نفور المستثمر من اسعار الفائدة المنخفضة وذهابه إلى الاستثمار في الاصول التقليدية (ادخار امواله في صورة ذهب). ربّما كان اقتراض مبلغ للاستثمار في الذهب من البنك بسعر فائدة منخفضة أفضل واقل تكلفة له وسيعود عليه لاحقا بربحٍ جيدة.

3- التضخم: من المعروف أن الذهب يعتبر اداة قوية لمحاربة التضخيم. ارتفاع معدل التضخم يؤدي إلى رفع سعر الذهب، وعندما تصل معدلات التضخم إلى مستويات قياسية، يثبت حينها الذهب قوته. التضخم بطبيعة الحال يدل على ضعف في القوة الشرائية للعملة، وذلك نتيجة لارتفاع عامل في أسعار السّلع والخدمات مما يؤثر سلبيًأ على قيمة العملة الورقية.

4- الازمات الإقتصادية: تؤثر الازمات الإقتصادية على الأسواق تأثيرًا سلبيًّا. لذلك كثير من المستثمرين نجدهم حذرين من الاستثمار في الأسهم والسندات وعليه يكون الذهب ملجأ وملاذ امن؛ لأن الذهب مقبول عالميًّا وسهل تحويله إلى اموالٍ.

5- انخفاض امدادات الذهب: التعدين مصدر هام واساسي لاستخراج الذهب، ولكن نلاحظ أنه خلال الفترة الماضية تضاعفت المشاكل بشان استخراج الذهب وفي نفس الوقت نلاحظ زيادة الطلب على الذهب، مما يزيد الطين بلة. 

حسب احصائية من موقع أجنبي موثوق، انخفضت امدادات الذهب بنسبة 40% تقريبًا. بالإضافة إلى زيادة تكاليف استخراج الذهب وزيادة الاجراءات القانونية والمشاكل الجغرافية. وبالتالي نجد ارتفاع في أسعار الذهب عالميًّا. لابد من متابعة هذا العامل جيدًا عن طريق الأخبار الاقتصادية والمقالات المنتشرة على الانترنت؛ لأن اي خبر بسيط يشير إلى صعوبات في استخراج الذهب، سيؤدي إلى ارتفاع الذهب ولو على المدى القريب.

6- معدلات الفائدة الأمريكية: عندما تنخفض معدلات الفائدة، ربّما يؤثر ذلك إيجابيًّا على أسعار الذهب؛ لأن الذهب حينها سيكون خيار استثماري أفضل بالنسبة للمستثمر. مراقبة أسعار الفائدة وربطها بالعوامل السابق ذكرها سيفيد المضارب في متاجرته على الذهب.
7- السياسة (المشاكل السياسية والازمات):



نجد أن المستثمرين يسرعوا إلى انقاذ استثماراتهم بالاستثمار في الذهب كملاذ امن. فمثلا بالنظر إلى الرسم البياني ادناه، نجد انه بعد هجوم 11 سبتمبر 2001 ارتفع الطلب على الذهب بشدة! السياسة والمشاكل الدولية والحروب وكلّ شيءٍ يضر بقيمة العملة، سيؤثر بطبيعة الحالي على الذهب إيجابيًّا.

مثال:من اشترى 1 كيلو ذهب من 13 عام تقريبًا بالجنيه المصري، فهو اليوم من الرابحين، حيث تضاعف رأس المال حوالي 11 مرة تقريبًا:

*شراء في 2000



الخروج في 2013 ب 11 ضعف مبلغ شراء كيلو ذهب عيار 24



8-التطورات في الصين والهند: هما من أكبر الدول المستوردة للذهب، وبالتالي ضروري جدًّا متابعة كل ما يحدث في هذينِ البلدين.

9-الاحتفالات: الهند من أكبر مستهلكي الذهب؛ لان الهنود يستخدمون الذهب بكثرة في المناسبات والأعياد كهدايا، وبالتالي يرتفع الطلب على الذهب خلال مواسم الاحتفالات. الاحتفالات تكون في أول مايو، و شهر أكتوبر.
10- قرارات اللجنة المسئولة في البنك الفيدرالي الأمريكي عن السياسة النقدية لتحديد سعر الفائدة وسياسات اخرى من شانها أن تؤثر على الذهب. (سأقوم بعمل فيديو لهذه الفقرة لاهميتها الكبيرة وحينها سأقوم بشرح ذلك كتابة أيضًا).

11-التغيرات في قيود CME من حيث رفع الهامش على عقود الذهب والفضة. (سنتكلم عن ذلك في الفيديو القادم أيضًا بإذن الله).

أخيرًا، يخضع الذهب مثل اي سلعة إلى قوانين العرض والطلب وان اختلف قليلا من حيث رد فعله تجاه احداث معينة، فهو مختلف بطبيعة الحال لانه نادر حيث لا ينتهي ولا يُستهلك ولكنه ينتقل من يدٍ إلى اخرى وهنا يكمن عامل الاختلاف.

بعض العوامل المؤثرة على أسعار الذهب عالميًّا (شرح فيديو مدعم بالرسوم البيانية التوضيحية): ‫العوامل الإقتصادية المحركة لأسعار الذهب - شادي عبده‬‎ - YouTube


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## alshangiti (10 مارس 2013)

الذهب ٨. مارس ٢٠١٣. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 مارس 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٦٠٨.٤. دولار للاونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 مارس 2013)

Editor's Note: Learn How To Read Gold Charts Over a Coffee Break! Join Kitco.com's Technical Analyst Jim Wyckoff For This Exclusive Webinar on Kitco.com March 21 at 11 AM EST.Sign-up Today!

Below are today’s likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

*

*

April Gold	Buy Stops	Sell Stops
*	$1,615.00*	$1,600.00*
*	**$1,619.70*	$1,589.60*
*	$1.625.00*	$1,580.00*
*	$1,627.90*	**$1,575.00*
*
May Silver	Buy Stops	Sell Stops
*	$29.11***	$28.585*
*	**$29.35***	$28.53***
*	$29.495*	**$28.315*
*	$30.00***	$27.925*
Stop Orders Defined

Stop orders in trading markets can be used for three purposes:* One: To minimize a loss on a long or short position (protective stop). *Two: To protect a profit on an existing long or short position (protective stop). Three: To initiate a new long or short position. A buy stop order is placed above the market and a sell stop order is placed below the market. Once the stop price is touched, the order is treated like a “market order” and will be filled at the best possible price.

Most stop orders are located and placed based upon key technical support or resistance levels on the daily chart, which if breached, would significantly change the near-term technical posture of that market.

Having a good idea, beforehand, where the buy and sell stops are located can give an active trader a better idea regarding at what price level buying or selling pressure will become intensified in that market.

The major advantage of using protective stops is that, before a trade is initiated, you have a pretty good idea of where you will be getting out of the trade if it's a loser. If the trade becomes a winner and profits begin to accrue, you may want to employ "trailing stops," whereby protective stops are adjusted to help lock in a profit should the market turn against your position.


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## alshangiti (21 مارس 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٦١٥ دولار للاونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (21 مارس 2013)

Editor's note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Ends Firmer, at 3-Week High, on Safe-Haven and Technical Buying
Thursday March 21, 2013 2:08 PM

(Kitco News)*- Gold prices ended the U.S. day session higher and hit a fresh three-week high Thursday. 
The risk-off day in the market place prompted some fresh safe-haven demand for the golden metal. The bulls are having a good week. Both the technical and fundamental postures of the gold market have improved recently. April Comex gold last traded up $7.10 at $1,614.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $8.50 at $1,615.75.* May Comex silver last traded up $0.413 at $29.23 an ounce.

The Cyprus financial crisis has still not been resolved and banks there are closed until next week. This is a messy situation, as Russia has its hands in the pie and the European Union and International Monetary Fund don’t like it. Mega-rich Russians have a large amount of their money parked in Cyprus banks. Russia has indicated it could bail out Cyprus, but details remain sketchy. The European Central Bank says it has funds ready for a Cyprus bailout, but insists there needs to be an EU-backed financial plan in place by Monday. This situation remains bullish for the safe-haven gold market.

Some more fresh, upbeat U.S. economic data coming out of the U.S. Thursday did somewhat limit buying interest in gold.

Meantime, there was more downbeat economic data coming out of the European Union Thursday. The Markit data company reported its composite purchasing managers’ index for the Euro zone fell to 46.5 in March from 47.9 in February. Any reading below 50.00 suggests contraction. Combined with recent EU economic data, Thursday’s fresh numbers further point to the Euro zone being in economic recession for yet another quarter in the first quarter of 2013. The Cyprus situation and the weak EU economic data is also an underlying positive for the gold market.

The market place is keeping an eye on developments coming out of North Korea. That nation issued fresh threats of a possible nuclear strike against U.S. bases in Japan. Any escalation in tensions between the U.S. and North Korea could send investors into safe-haven assets like gold.

The U.S. dollar index traded near steady Thursday. Prices Tuesday hit a fresh 7.5-month high. The U.S. dollar bulls continue to hold the firm overall technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were lower Thursday. The crude oil bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage at present. These two key “outside markets” will continue to have a significant daily influence on gold and silver prices.

The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,613.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,607.50.

Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high and hit a fresh three-week high Thursday. The gold bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained decent upside near-term chart momentum to begin to suggest that a market low is in place. A bullish weekly high close on Friday would provide the bulls with better upside near-term chart momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,575.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,616.50 and then at $1,619.70. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,603.60 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.75

May silver futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday. Silver bears still have the near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways for the past few weeks as the bulls try to stabilize the market. This sideways trading could be “basing” action that can put in market lows and occurs just before an uptrend begins. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.495 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $28.40. First resistance is seen at $29.35 and then at $29.495. Next support is seen at $29.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $28.705. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 110 points at 343.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low Thursday. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 351.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August 2012 low of 332.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 345.35 cents and then at 347.25 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 342.10 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.


----------



## alshangiti (22 مارس 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٦٠٧ دولار للاونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (4 أبريل 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٥٥٠ دولار للأونصة. 
Gold, Silver, Gold Price, Silver Price, Gold Rate, Gold News | Kitco.


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## alshangiti (4 أبريل 2013)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are moderately lower in early trading Thursday and hit a 10-month low overnight. A stronger U.S. dollar index Thursday morning and more technical selling are keeping gold market bulls on the ropes. June Comex gold last traded down $6.60 at $1,546.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $10.90 at $1,547.50. May Comex silver last traded down $0.012 at $26.785 an ounce.


The gold market continues to feel the pressure from the exodus of investors from exchange trade funds (ETFs). Reports overnight said the first quarter of 2013 showed a significant outflow of investor monies from gold-related ETFs. However, there are also reports that demand for physical gold has picked up this week as bargain hunters step in to buy amid the big drop in gold prices.


The latest “international incident” is North Korea and its bellicose rhetoric toward the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea has this week publicly threatened to attack the U.S. with nuclear missiles and is also threatening South Korea. The U.S. says it is taking North Korea’s threats seriously and has dispatched military assets to the region surrounding North Korea. The gold market is presently not reacting bullishly to the uncertainty of the matter. However, that could change very quickly if the North Korea situation turns from just rhetoric to military conflict.


In other news overnight, the Bank of Japan embarked on more monetary easing at its latest policy meeting. The move was not unexpected but the BOJ did act more aggressively to ease monetary policy than many expected. The BOJ move is an underlying bullish factor for the precious metals and the raw commodity sector. The European Central Bank and Bank of England also hold monetary policy meetings Thursday. The Euro currency fell to a fresh for-the-move low against the U.S. dollar following more downbeat economic news coming out of the European Union on Thursday. German and French purchasing managers’ data came in weaker than expected. Most agree the Euro zone is presently in a full blown economic recession.


The U.S. dollar index is trading solidly higher Thursday and hit an eight-month high overnight. The U.S. dollar bulls have the strong overall technical advantage, which is an underlying bearish factor for the gold and silver markets. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady Thursday morning, after suffering big losses Wednesday. The crude oil bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. These two key “outside markets” will continue to have a significant daily influence on gold and silver prices.


U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report, and the global services PMI.


The London A.M. gold fix is $1,545.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,574.75.


Technically, June gold futures prices hit a 10-month low overnight as serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted this week. The gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Importantly, the “line in the sand” for the gold market, on a longer-term technical basis, is major psychological support at $1,500.00. Multiple daily closes below $1,500.00 would produce serious longer-term chart damage to then also call into question the 12-year-old uptrend in gold prices. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,580.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below major technical support at $1,500.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,559.30 and then at $1,565.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,539.40 and then at $1,535.00. 


May silver futures prices hit a nine-month low overnight. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted this week. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $28.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major technical support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $27.315. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $26.62 and then at $26.50.


Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.


By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]


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## alshangiti (11 أبريل 2013)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX
الذهب اليوم ١٥٦٥ دولار للأونصة


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## alshangiti (11 أبريل 2013)

GOLD NEWS
Goldman Sachs recommends shorting gold
The bank says it believes a sharp rebound in gold prices is unlikely and that the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than its current forecast.




Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Wednesday , 10 Apr 2013 
GRONINGEN (MINEWEB) - 


Goldman Sachs has, once again, lowered its gold forecasts, announcing in a new note that clients should consider shorting the yellow metal.


The bank says that the lack of gold price response to the recent resurgence in "Euro area risk aversion and disappointing US economic data" highlights how quickly investor conviction in holding gold is waning.


Goldman Sachs writes, "With this move lower triggered by the unexpected sharp improvement in the three risks that we initially thought could support gold prices in 1Q13, events since mid-March have finally offered potential catalysts for a rebound in gold prices. And yet, gold prices have remained unfazed by the recent resurgence in Euro area risk aversion and disappointing US economic data, currently trading at their level from a month ago, $1,585/toz.


Adding, "With our economists expecting few ramifications from Cyprus and that the recent US slowdown will not derail the faster recovery they forecast in 2H13, we believe a sharp rebound in gold prices is unlikely... In fact, should our expectation for lower gold prices continue to prove correct, the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than our forecast, as aggregate speculative net long positions across COMEX futures and gold ETFs remain near record highs."


As a result of this belief that gold prices will go lower in 2013 and 2014, Goldman Sachs views taking up a short COMEX gold position as its top trading recommendation but cautions that, while it may be a little early to enter the trade, "we prefer that to being late given our belief that the skew to current prices is to the downside."


The bank's new forecast is for a year-end target of $1,450/toz in 2013 and $1,270/toz in 2014.


Longer term from, 2017 and beyond, Goldman Sachs still expects prices to be $1,200/toz predicting, that, over that time horizon, US real rates will stabilize and the risks toUS will become more symmetrical.


"And while higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next cycle in gold prices, this is likely several years away: inflation expectations remain well anchored and our economists expect subdued inflationary pressures in coming years. Finally, even if higher inflation materializes, its impact on gold prices could be offset by: (1) US real interest rates rising more quickly than we anticipate if the economic recovery is accelerating, or (2) an end to the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion if inflation expectations become unhinged."


Topics: MINING, METALS, MINING AND METALS, INVESTMENT, GOLD, GOLDMAN SACHS


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## alshangiti (9 مايو 2013)

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures ended the U.S. day session modestly lower Thursday, on a corrective technical pullback from Wednesday’s solid gains, some weak economic data from China, and on bearish outside market forces—a firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices. June Comex gold last traded down $4.80 at $1,468.90 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.30 at $1,470.50. July Comex silver last traded down $0.027 at $23.90 an ounce.


China on Thursday reported its producer price index dropped more than expected in April, which suggests slowing production in China. Meantime, China also reported its consumer price inflation rate rose more than expected—up 2.4% versus expectations of a 2.2% rise, on an annual basis--which suggests China monetary officials could tighten monetary policy to ward off inflationary price pressures. Thursday’s data from the world’s largest raw commodity consumer is bearish for that sector, including the precious metals.


In other news, the Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut its interest rates overnight, while the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The European Central Bank reported Thursday the Euro zone economy remains weak and could get weaker.


The U.S. dollar index was solidly higher Thursday. The greenback bulls are maintaining the overall near-term technical advantage, which is a bearish underlying factor for the metals. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices were weaker Thursday. However, the crude oil bulls are having a good week so far.


The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,465.50 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,468.00.


Technically, June gold futures prices closed near mid-range Thursday. The gold bulls continue to show resilience, which is suggestive of a market bottom being in place. However, gold prices are still in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears have the overall technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,439.70. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,478.40 and then at last week’s high of $1,487.20. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,458.80 and then at $1,450.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5


July silver futures prices closed near mid-range again Thursday. Silver bears are still in overall technical control. Prices are in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $24.17 and then at this week’s high of $24.42. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $23.695 and then at this week’s low of $23.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


May N.Y. copper closed down 330 points at 333.80 cents Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range on a corrective pullback from recent strong gains. The key “outside markets” were bearish for copper Thursday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. The weaker Chinese economic data released Thursday helped to pressure copper prices. Copper bulls are on a level near-term technical playing field with the bears. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 345.25 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 335.50 cents and then at this week’s high of 339.00 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 331.80 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.


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## alshangiti (9 مايو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٤٧٥ دولار للأونصة 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (16 مايو 2013)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX

الذهب اليوم١٣٨٨ دولار للأونصة. نزول. خطير.


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## alshangiti (22 مايو 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٣٥٦.٨ دولار للأونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (30 مايو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٤١٢ دولار للأونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (7 يونيو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. أقفل ع السوق عند ١٣٨٢ دولار للأونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (7 يونيو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. أقفل ع السوق عند 1382 دولار للأونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (13 يونيو 2013)

الذهب الآن قبل إقفال السوق بثلاث. ساعات ١٣٩٧.٢ دولار للأونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (19 يونيو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٣٥١ دولار للأونصة 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 يونيو 2013)

انخفض الذهب اليوم. الى ١قل من ١٣٠٠ دولار للأونصة. 
Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (20 يونيو 2013)

تراجع سعر اونصة الذهب الخميس الى ما دون 1300 دولار للمرة الاولى منذ اكثر من عامين ونصف العام، وذلك اثر اعلان الاحتياطي الفدرالي الاميركي نيته الحد في السنوات المقبلة من الدعم الذي يقدمه للاقتصاد الاميركي.


وقرابة الساعة 09,50 تغ، بلغ سعر اونصة الذهب 1287 دولارا وهو ادنى مستوى لها منذ ايلول/سبتمبر 2010، وكانت لا تزال تتعرض لضغوط. واوضح مايكل هيوسن المحلل لدى "سي ام سي ماركتس" ان "الذهب الذي كان لفترة طويلة الملاذ المفضل (للمستثمرين) بات في وضع هش بعد تصريحات الاحتياطي الفدرالي الاميركي امس".


وكان رئيس الاحتياطي بن برنانكي حذر الاربعاء من ان مؤسسته تعتزم ان توقف بالتدريج الدعم النقدي الكبير الذي تقدمه للاقتصاد الاميركي. واضاف برنانكي ان الاحتياطي سيخفض من عمليات ضخ السيولة التي يقوم بها والتي تبلغ قيمتها 85 مليار دولار شهريا، اعتبارا من العام الحالي على ان تتوقف على مراحل في اواسط العام المقبل.


ويبعد هذا الاحتمال بشكل اكبر المخاوف من حصول زيادة كبيرة في التضخم في الاشهر المقبلة مما يؤثر على سعر الذهب الذي يعتبر عادة بمثابة حماية ضد ارتفاع اسعار الاستهلاك. كما اثرت تصريحات برنانكي بشكل كبير على الاسواق المالية.


وفي اواسط نيسان/ابريل، سجل الذهب اكبر تراجع له منذ 30 عاما، اذ خسر اكثر من 200 دولار في غضون جلستي تداول وتراجع تحت عتبة ال1400 دولار للمرة الاولى منذ 13 شهرا خصوصا بسبب احتمال تراجع مخاطر التضخم.


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## alshangiti (27 يونيو 2013)

تدهورت أسعار الذهب ووصلت اليوم. الى ١٢٠٢. دولار للأونصة.


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## alshangiti (27 يونيو 2013)

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (16 يوليو 2013)

الذهب اليوم. ١٢٨٢.٩. دولار للأونصة. 

Gold, USD, Price gold, Silver, US Dollar, Oil, Platinum - Kitco KGX


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## alshangiti (1 أغسطس 2013)

الذهب اليوم ١٣٢٧ دولار للأونصة. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (22 أغسطس 2013)

Gold today. 1375.4. $ per oz. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (1 سبتمبر 2013)

http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts...=20110215_iCharts_bottom&utm_campaign=iCharts


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## alshangiti (1 سبتمبر 2013)

How much gold is there in the world?
By Ed Prior
BBC News


Continue reading the main story
In today's Magazine
How the Pisces III was rescued
Why do people still fly the Confederate flag?
Quiz of the week's news
My mother the Amazonian tribeswoman
Imagine if you were a super-villain who had taken control of all the world's gold, and had decided to melt it down to make a cube. How long would the sides be? Hundreds of metres, thousands even?


Actually, it's unlikely to be anything like that size.


Warren Buffett, one of the world's richest investors, says the total amount of gold in the world - the gold above ground, that is - could fit into a cube with sides of just 20m (67ft).


But is that all there is? And if so, how do we know?


A figure that is widely used by investors comes from Thomson Reuters GFMS, which produces an annual gold survey.


Their latest figure for all the gold in the world is 171,300 tonnes - which is almost exactly the same as the amount in our super-villain's imaginary cube.


A cube made of 171,300 tonnes would be about 20.7m (68ft) on each side. Or to put it another way, it would reach to 9.8m above ground level if exactly covering Wimbledon Centre Court.


But not everyone agrees with the GFMS figures.


Estimates range from 155,244 tonnes, marginally less than the GFMS figure, to about 16 times that amount - 2.5 million tonnes.


That bigger figure would make a cube of sides 50m (166ft) long, or a column of gold towering 143m above Wimbledon centre court.




So why are the figures so different?


Part of the reason is that gold has been mined for a very long time - more than 6,000 years, according to gold historian Timothy Green.


Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote


All the gold that has been mined throughout history is still in existence ”


James Turk
Gold Money
The first gold coins were minted in about 550 BC under King Croesus of Lydia - a province in modern-day Turkey - and quickly became accepted payment for merchants and mercenary soldiers around the Mediterranean.


Up until 1492, the year Columbus sailed to America, GFMS estimates that 12,780 tonnes had been extracted.


But one investor who looked at the research done in this area, James Turk, the founder of Gold Money, discovered what he regarded as a series of over-estimates.


He believes that the primitive mining techniques used up to the Middle Ages mean that this figure is much too high, and that a more realistic total is just 297 tonnes.


Tonnes of gold
GFMS	James Turk
Pre-1492
12,780
297
Post-1492
158520
154947
Total
171,300
155,244
His figure for the overall amount of gold in the world is 155,244 tonnes - 16,056 tonnes, or 10% less, than the assessment by Thompson Reuters GFMS. A relatively small disparity, perhaps, but one that at today's prices comes to more than $950bn.


His conclusions are accepted by some investors but such is the feeling between rival analysts that one competitor described Turk's figures as an alternative to the GFMS's "in the same way that Jedi is an alternative to Christianity".


But there are others who think both sets of figures are too low.




"In Tutankhamen's tomb alone they found that his coffin was made from 1.5 tonnes of gold, so imagine the gold that was found in the other tombs that were ransacked before records were taken of them," says Jan Skoyles of gold investment firm The Real Asset Company.


While James Turk makes only minor adjustments to the GFMS figure for the amount of gold mined after 1492, Skoyles points out that even today China is "not particularly open" about how much gold it is mining.


And in some countries, such as Colombia, "there's a lot of illegal mining going on", she says.


She doesn't have an exact figure to offer, but one organisation that has tried to do some maths is the Gold Standard Institute.




There is much gold still in the ground, like here in Democratic Republic of Congo
Its experts believe that if we emptied our bank vaults and jewellery boxes, we'd find no less than 2.5 million tonnes of gold - though they admit that the evidence is somewhat sparse and the figure is a bit speculative.


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## alshangiti (13 سبتمبر 2013)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
Gold price today 1325 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (25 سبتمبر 2013)

Gold price today 1333.2 $ per oz. 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (4 أكتوبر 2013)

(Kitco News) - Barring a weekend political agreement, the gold market will remain focused on the partial U.S. government shutdown and political quagmire next week, analysts said.


Several said this should be more supportive for gold now that the dispute has turned into a several-day affair, as opposed to some standoffs in the past that were resolved at the last minute before a major deadline.


The current shutdown in the U.S. is the result of a lack of agreement over a continuing resolution on the budget, which led to a shutdown of so-called non-essential services on Tuesday, analysts said. Further, the market is starting to look ahead toward the Oct. 17 date by which the Treasury has said it will hit its borrowing authority, meaning another potential political fight over the debt ceiling.


Other factors that could influence the market next week include minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the return of Chinese buyers after a week-long holiday.


This week, gold eased despite the partial U.S. government shutdown. The December contract lost $29.30 for the week, or 2.2%, to settle Friday at $1,309.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. December silver slipped 7.9 cents to $21.752.


Some market participants were puzzled that gold couldn’t tick higher despite the U.S. shutdown. Traders offered several theories. Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, pointed to the absence of Chinese buying since that country was observing an extended holiday, temporarily taking away one of the world’s two largest physical buyers of the metal. And, he continued, recent downgrades of gold outlooks by investment banks may have dented some investor enthusiasm.


Others said gold prices may have already factored in the shutdown prior to this week, while others still suggested veteran traders may have viewed the political battle as largely posturing for lawmakers’ constituencies, expecting them to eventually allow the government to re-open.


Whatever the case, many anticipate the metal will get a lift if the political stalemate and U.S. government shutdown goes into a second week. Of 21 respondents in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, 10 see prices up next week, while six see prices down and five see prices sideways or unchanged.


With the government already shut down, the approaching debt-ceiling deadline adds another concern for investors since there will be worries that credit agencies could downgrade U.S. debt, Lusk said. Standard & Poor’s did so during the last major battle over the debt ceiling back in 2011.


“Right now, we’re just trading off of chart points here – support and resistance – because there is nothing else to really trade off,” Lusk said, citing the dearth of U.S. economic data since agencies such as the Labor Department are not releasing reports during the shutdown.


“But as we get into next week and this thing extends, and there is no deal today or over the weekend, I feel we’re going to trade higher. We will get some temporary safe-haven buying.”


Spencer Patton, chief investment officer for Steel Vine Investments, concurred. Conversely, both men would envision gold retreating if Republicans and Democrats suddenly found a middle ground and struck a compromise.


“If there is no resolution, I expect that to be bullish for gold,” Patton said. “If there is a resolution, I expect that would be bearish for gold since that would take some of the uncertainty out of the market.”


Based on some of the comments coming out of the Republican camp, Patton added, he suspects that any agreements on the continuing resolution on the budget and debt ceiling may come at the same time. “But I don’t think that will happen for another two weeks,” he added.


Meanwhile, if the partial U.S. government shutdown continues, that means no more economic data from government agencies. As it was, Friday’s key monthly September report on non-farm payrolls was delayed.


Under such a scenario, there may be an increased emphasis on Wednesday’s scheduled release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that ended Sept. 18. A spokesman for the Federal Reserve told Kitco News that the Fed remains open and the minutes should be released. Several analysts explained that the Fed is not considered a part of the government and does not rely upon Congress for funding.


The FOMC meeting ending Sept. 18 was the one at which policy-makers opted to leave their $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, in place when expectations had been for a modest tapering.


“If there is no agreement in the U.S., then I would guess the minutes of the FOMC next Wednesday should not be good for the dollar,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading with MKS (Switzerland) SA. This, in turn, should be supportive for gold, he continued. The yellow metal tends to move inversely to the greenback.


Lusk said it is doubtful that the FOMC members would taper at their meeting at the end of October with the government shut down, meaning furloughs of many workers, and since no more government reports are coming out to offer fresh insight into the economy. “I think the $85 billion per month is going to be kept in place,” he said.


Meanwhile, a week-long Chinese holiday will end next week, bringing potential buyers of physical metal back into the market, observers said. “That should provide some kind of support,” Nabavi said.


Technical-chart considerations also will play a role in what happens to gold, as always, several observers said.


“This week’s dip below $1,300 put a technical dent in the fundamental perspective that the financial uncertainty facing markets over a U.S. government shutdown should prompt gold to soar,” said Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial. “Gold needs to rapidly close back over the 50-day moving average at $1,343 or risks losing momentum and following back below $1,275.”


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## alshangiti (4 أكتوبر 2013)

Editor's note: Watch The Latest Kitco Video News!


Gold Survey: Survey Participants Mixed; Largest Share Sees Higher Gold Next Week
Friday October 04, 2013 12:10 PM


(Kitco News) - Neither bulls, bears nor fence-sitters had an outright majority in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, although the largest number of responses called for gold to be higher next week.


Many describe the precious metal’s direction over the coming week as a tough call due to the uncertainty over how long the U.S. government will be shut down by a political stalemate on a continuing resolution over the budget, with another fight looming over the debt ceiling later this month.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 21 responded this week. Of these, 10 see prices up, while six see prices down and five see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Last week, a majority of survey participants were bullish. As of noon EDT Friday, December gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was down $30.40 the week.


George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures, anticipates a narrow range but with an upside bias. More investors could turn to gold if it appears the government shutdown will become protracted, he said.


“People would start to take a second look at gold as a (safe) haven,” he said.


Ken Morrison, founder and editor of the online newsletter "Morrison on the Markets," said he does not anticipate a repeat of the apparent fund liquidation that occurred this week, as reflected by lower open interest since last Friday and a decline in prices.


“There is support in the $1,300-$1,275 area and we're assuming major fund long liquidation is unlikely to be as large a factor as this week, so we expect gold to rally toward $1,350 within the week ahead,” he said.


Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, is among those who look for prices to tick lower.


“When a market stops reacting positively to bullish news, it usually goes lower,” he said. “We have a possible default looming, yet every time gold manages to rally, the sellers get more aggressive.”


The outcome of the political stalemate, of course, will be crucial.


Peter Hug, global trading director for Kitco, said “if this garbage continues in Washington on the debt issue, the metals will continue to find, at a minimum, psychological support and potentially have significant upside on a ‘fear’ safe-haven trade. If sanity rules, the market has a heavy tone and levels seen this week, i.e. $1,277 are in the cards.”






By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asyk[email protected]




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## alshangiti (11 أكتوبر 2013)

* Obama, Republicans aim to end budget crisis after meetings


* Dollar holds near 2-week highs (Updates throughout, changes dateline from SINGAPORE)


By Clara Denina


LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Gold was on course for a second weekly decline on Friday as signs the U.S. budget impasse might be heading towards a resolution lifted the dollar and curbed the metal's safe-haven appeal.


Republican lawmakers, who have not passed budget funding, on Thursday offered a plan that would extend the U.S. government's borrowing authority for several weeks. If accepted by Democrats, that would stave off a U.S. default that could otherwise occur as soon as Oct. 17.


Spot gold was steady at $1,285.60 an ounce by 1009 GMT, after dropping for three straight sessions. The metal was down 1.9 percent on the week and headed for its sixth weekly decline in seven weeks.


The last time there was high tension over talks to lift the U.S. debt ceiling, in 2011, gold hit record highs. But this year sentiment towards bullion is much less positive and it has held in narrow ranges during budget talks over the past week as investors saw little chance the ceiling would not be raised, analysts said.


The metal has lost a fifth of its value this year on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its stimulus programme which has kept interest rates low and stoked inflation fears.


"You had a very short-lived move higher on the back of the debt ceiling talks but ... the market just discounts a lot of the bullish news at the moment, looking at the improving underlying economic picture," BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Widmer said.


"It happened already earlier in the year, there were few events that were potentially bullish for the market, the Cyprus crisis among those, and gold didn't react at all ... you have these short-term pops every once in a while but I think the market continues to look beyond that."


The dollar held just below two-week highs against major currencies, while European stocks inched up, extending the previous day's rally.


Soft physical demand, a lack of economic data and outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also dragged on prices throughout the week.


"Physical buying is fairly non existent at these levels, funds are staying clear and even the most diehard bulls are having problems coming up with a reason to buy gold, given its totally lacklustre performance as of late," Marex Spectron said in a note. "As I have said before, once the U.S. resolves its problems, which it will, we head lower."


The gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.2 percent, or 1.80 tonnes, to 896.38 tonnes on Thursday. That marked a fresh four-year low.


The ETF, seen as a good measure of gold investor sentiment due to the amount of bullion it holds, has seen outflows of about 400 tonnes this year.


Silver fell 0.6 percent to $21.49 an ounce on Friday.


Spot platinum was little changed at $1,381.29 an ounce. It showed little reaction to news that striking workers at Anglo American Platinum had returned to work as the market expects more mining disruptions in leading platinum producer South Africa.


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## alshangiti (12 أكتوبر 2013)

Gold will extend losses into 2014 amid expectations the Federal Reserve will pare stimulus as the U.S. recovers, according to Morgan Stanley, adding to bearish calls from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG.
“We recommend staying away from gold at this point in the cycle,” Melbourne-based analyst Joel Crane said in a video report received today. Bullion will average $1,313 an ounce in 2014, down from the $1,420 forecast for this year, Morgan Stanley said in its quarterly metals report on Oct. 7.
Enlarge image 
Bullion, which has averaged $1,453 in 2013, is heading for the first annual loss in 13 years after dropping 22 percent. Photographer: Daniel Barry/Bloomberg
Bullion is heading for the sixth weekly loss in seven and investment holdings are shrinking even as U.S. lawmakers wrangle over the debt ceiling and budget, seeking to avert a default and end a government shutdown. Gold is a “slam dunk” sell for next year because the U.S. will extend the recovery after lawmakers resolve the stalemate, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research, said this week. The political deadlock in Washington is a “farce,” according to Marex Spectron Group.
“Our forecast profile heading into next year is relatively flat against our expectations of rising real interest rates and the U.S. dollar,” Crane said in the video. Bullion will average lower every year through 2018, Morgan Stanley forecasts.
Bullion, which has averaged $1,453 in 2013, is heading for the first annual loss in 13 years after dropping 22 percent. The price tumbled to a 34-month low of $1,180.50 in London in June on expectations that the Fed would taper the $85-billion-a-month of bond buying. Gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,298.19 at 6:01 p.m. in London, dropping for a third day.
Fed Minutes
Not everyone is bearish. While gold may look weak fundamentally, “in this sort of environment, you can make a strong argument that gold isn’t too bad a thing to hold,” said Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclays Plc. “I don’t think it’s a slam dunk short by any means,” he said yesterday. Short bets are wagers on declines.
Most Fed policy makers said that the central bank was likely to taper its bond purchases this year, even as they unexpectedly refrained from such a move in September, according to minutes of their last meeting released yesterday.
Ric Deverell, Currie’s counterpart at Credit Suisse, said on Oct. 8 that selling gold is his top recommendation for trading in raw materials in the next year. Deverell said in May that bullion was going to get “crushed.”
ETP Holdings
Investors sold 711.8 metric tons from bullion-backed exchange-traded products this year, erasing more than $61 billion from the value of the funds. Holdings fell to 1,920.2 tons on Oct. 8, the least since May 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Assets are down 27 percent in 2013 after climbing every year since the first product was listed in 2003.
House Republican and Senate Democratic leaders are open to a short-term increase in the debt limit, according to congressional aides of both parties, who spoke on condition of anonymity. President Barack Obama has already said he could accept a short-term deal without policy conditions.
“Tapering has been postponed not canceled, and is expected by year end,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the Oct. 7 report. “We also expect the political stalemate in Washington to be broken before the debt ceiling is breached. Consequently, we see little immediate upside to the gold price either in the immediate future or next year.”


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## alshangiti (14 أكتوبر 2013)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (5 نوفمبر 2013)

Gold price today 1309 $ per oz 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (8 نوفمبر 2013)

Gold price drop today to 1282.2 $ per oz 
http://www.kitco.com


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## alshangiti (15 نوفمبر 2013)

Gold price today. 1288.9 $ per oz 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (23 نوفمبر 2013)

(Kitco News) - After breaking technical-chart support this week, gold seems set fall further, with some market watchers suggesting a dip to the $1,220s is possible as bearish technical charts and little positive news is available to offset the price-negative sentiment in gold.


December gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,244.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, but fell 3.4% on the week. February gold futures, which will become the front month soon, settled at $1,244.60. December silver fell Friday, settling at $19.862 an ounce, and fell 4.2% on the week. March silver futures, which will become the front month soon, settled at $19.901.


U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. Trade resumes Friday.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 25 responded this week. Of these, six see prices up, while 14 see prices down and five see prices sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Gold-price weakness accelerated mid-week following the release of meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, which suggested that the Fed would like to scale back their bond-buying program sooner rather than later.


That pushed prices lower and selling on Thursday took gold through technical-chart support at $1,250, which many analyst saw as important for the market to hold since it was the bottom of the current range.


One technical analyst even joked that gold reminded him of beleaguered Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, who has grabbed headlines for bad behavior and has only made matters worse for himself as he tries to save his reputation. 
It’s gold’s inability to rally that makes Walter Zimmerman Jr., vice president, chief technical analyst at United-ICAP, compare the yellow metal to the Toronto mayor.


“Gold kind of reminds me of Rob Ford. Whatever it tries to do, it only makes itself look worse. The more it flails around, the more it still looks like it’s headed lower,” Zimmerman said.


Zimmerman said the technical charts, whether looking at daily or monthly charts, are bearish for gold. The daily charts are suggesting an eventual test of the June low which comes in at $1,179 (which is $1,183.20 using a futures continuation chart) and perhaps a fall to $1,160, he said. If gold tests the summer lows, he said it’s important to watch what happens next.


“What happens there will make all the difference. Will we get a correction (to move higher) or does it accelerate lower because it breaks the $1,160 area,” Zimmerman said.


On the monthly charts, he said gold is forming a triangle pattern, which is a continuation of the current trend.


“Whenever a market has a big move down and goes into a triangle, you can be pretty sure that the trend is still down. And it’s going to break to new lows. The question is how far down does it break?” he asked rhetorically.


He said the most bearish case for gold is to target $800 to $750, but he thinks it will take “a couple years” to get there. “The timing of $800 gold is a bigger question, but we have a much higher level of certainty that gold will … test $1,160,” he said.


Zimmerman said it’s not just the gold charts that look bearish, but other factors are working against the metal.


“There a number of big technical negatives for gold, and a number of big structural economic cyclical and fundamental negatives for gold,” Zimmerman said, including rising interest rates, a lack of inflation and a U.S. dollar that’s trending higher. “These things are poison for gold.”


Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale, said the lack of substantial physical buying is also playing a part in gold’s weakness.


“We’ve seen some physical buying in bits and pieces here, but even with gold lower we haven’t stirred up any chunky physical business yet. There’s been a bit of bargain hunting, but prices might have to probe further on the downside to uncover the chunky buying. That might not occur until prices fall under $1,200,” he said.


Bhar said it seems that physical buying was satiated when prices hit their lows during the summer and during October’s weakness.


He doesn’t see gold falling under $1,200 next week, saying a drop like that might be too quick, but he said gold could reach for $1,220 to $1,230 next week and then try for a test of $1,200 the following week.


Volumes may be lighter than usual because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., and could thin out toward the end of the week. That can lead to volatile price action.


Next week also brings options expiration on Monday, and it could affect the futures market, traders said. There’s a lot of open interest around the $1,250 and $1,275 strike prices, particularly in puts. The futures market will sometimes gravitate to the most popular strike prices a day after expiration. That means gold prices could rise from current levels in the beginning of the week, but Kevin Grady, owner of Phoenix Futures and Options said rallies don’t have staying power.


“We could see some short-covering rallies, but rallies will get sold,” he said.


Grady noted there was a little bit of bullish optimism in the options market with some “tremendous” buying of the December 2015 $3,000 calls. “That’s someone with some wishful thinking,” he said, as it is a position two years out.


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## alshangiti (13 ديسمبر 2013)

Gold price today 1234.5 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (3 يناير 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
Gold price 1224 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (9 يناير 2014)

Gold price now 1225.1$ per oz


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## alshangiti (24 يناير 2014)

Gold price today 1265 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (31 يناير 2014)

Gold price today 1242.2 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (21 فبراير 2014)

Gold price now 1322.2 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (21 فبراير 2014)

http://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Gold-miners-supply2.jpg


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## alshangiti (4 مارس 2014)

Gold price today 1339.3 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (14 مارس 2014)

Gold price now 4 hours before market close. 1376$ per oz


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## alshangiti (21 مارس 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
Gold price now 1334$ per oz


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## alshangiti (9 أبريل 2014)

Gold price now 1310 $ per oz 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (18 أبريل 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
gold close on 1293 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (18 أبريل 2014)

June gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,293.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.9% on the week. May silver fell Friday, settling at $19.596 an ounce, down 1.76% on the week. 


Out of 33 participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, 21 responded this week. Seven see prices up, while 12 see prices down and two see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Gold prices fell sharply this week, essentially washing away nearly all of their April gains as worries about Chinese demand in the face of weaker economic data and perhaps less robust demand for gold in coming months weighed on the metal. The selloff also triggered bearish short-term technical-chart signals, analysts said, as the market slipped under the 200-day moving average, which traders watch closely.


Prices for the yellow metal are now hugging the 200-day moving average, as the price point comes in at $1,300.80 for the June contract as of Thursday.


Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, said after gold’s sharp break on Tuesday, prices have consolidated, but he said “if we get more bad data out of China next week (that could weigh on gold). The only reason why we’re holding up here is because of concerns about the Ukraine.”


Several analysts said the continuing tensions between Ukraine and Russia are giving gold a bid; however, they noted the geopolitical tensions could be having less of an impact for gold. Nonetheless they said the situation bears watching. 


Economic data from the U.S. and China will likely take top billing next week. Analysts said there’s a good chance gold may try and test the 2014 lows of $1,277.40 considering U.S. economic data have mostly come in as-expected or slightly better, while Chinese data have disappointed.


Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale, said he expects gold to slip next week.


“I think the downward trend will continue into next week. I say that because the U.S. data clearly is on an upward trend,” he said.


Bhar also pointed out a sizable drop in SPDR Gold Trust holdings overnight, which stand at 798.43 metric tons as of Wednesday, versus 806.82 tons the day before, as a sign of investor disinterest.


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## alshangiti (26 أبريل 2014)

FOMC, Jobs Data, Ukraine Will Keep Gold Market On Edge
Gold closed at 1303 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (30 مايو 2014)

انخفاض أسعار الذهب اليوم الى ١٢٥٤ دولار للأونصة.


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## alshangiti (30 مايو 2014)

(Kitco News) -A solid majority of participants in the Kitco News weekly gold survey see weaker prices next week after the yellow fell through technical-chart support earlier this week.


Out of 33 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those, 18 see prices lower, seven see prices higher and two see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Last week, survey participants were slightly bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was down about $45 for the week.


Those who see weaker prices continuing say now that gold fell through the technical-chart wedge formation, further losses are possible. Kevin Grady, president Phoenix Futures and Options, said both fundamental and technical reasons are weighing on gold.


“The forward rates are continuing their progression into positive territory which signals to me that the physical buying is drying up even at these levels. I would expect the price-sensitive buyers to surface again near the $1,225 area. We also saw the longs liquidate heavily with a drop in (futures market) open interest of 24,000 contracts from Wednesday's trading. I will continue to monitor the forward rates for any sign of the physical buyers. Until that happens, I think gold will continue on its present course,” Grady said.


Those who see prices rising next week said gold could see a bounce after such a sharp break.


The “gold price faces a double-threat: record-breaking U.S equities and a strengthening U.S. dollar. As the unloved stepchild in the commodity family for the last six weeks, the family now finds itself under pressure with downturns in oil and copper and ominous warning signals coming from tumbling iron ore prices in China. The yellow metal is likely oversold and some technical relief may come with the new month. Russian troops pulling away from Ukraine’s border removes most geopolitical reasons to rally back to the $1,300 level, but gold could challenge this week’s high of $1,267 per ounce,” said Richard Baker, editor, Eureka Miner.


Those who see prices sideways or are neutral say gold prices may try to stabilize after this week’s selloff.


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## alshangiti (21 يونيو 2014)

ارتفعت أسعار الذهب امس قبل الإغلاق ووصلت الى ١٣١٤ دولار للأونصة


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## alshangiti (21 يونيو 2014)

@YAHYAMALSHANGIT: The US Economy Not Doing Better is Good The US Economy Not Doing Better is Good for Gold | Gold Investing News


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## alshangiti (21 يونيو 2014)

@YAHYAMALSHANGIT: Allocated gold at Bank of England drops 755 tonnes
Allocated gold at Bank of England drops 755 tonnes - GOLD NEWS - Mineweb.com Mineweb


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## alshangiti (21 يونيو 2014)

@YAHYAMALSHANGIT: Australia's gold export to China boom as India imports fade
Australia`s gold export to China boom as India imports fade - GOLD NEWS - Mineweb.com Mineweb


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## alshangiti (22 يونيو 2014)

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices rose to their highest level since mid-April this week and market participants are keeping a close eye on $1,300 an ounce to see if the metal can stay above this psychologically important level.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]August gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,316.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 3.3% on the week. July silver rose Friday, settling at $20.949 an ounce, up 6.6% on the week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 37 participants, 26 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and two see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Gold price spiked higher Thursday, buoyed by a delayed reaction to the Federal Reserve maintaining a generally dovish tone toward monetary policy and on concerns about bubbling tensions in Iraq regarding militants seizing a few key cities throughout the country. As prices rose, the movement uncovered buy stops, which are pre-placed buy orders, fueling even more gains. The rally also pushed through several technical-chart resistance levels, helping to build momentum.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Dave Toth, director of technical research at RJ O'Brien, is bullish on gold prices based on this week’s technical-chart action.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Thursday’s “decisive rebound above Monday’s $1,285.10 high (for August gold futures) confirms the new long-term trend as up in gold prices,” Toth said.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]More broadly, he said, the daily charts show gold’s inability to sustain losses under $1,280 broke the March-June downtrend. “On this broader scale the market has defined (the) June 2 $1,240 low as the new and long-term risk parameter it needs to break to negate a new bullish count and resurrect the secular downtrend from September 2011's $1,923 all-time high,” Toth said.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Comex gold analysts said judging by the final open interest data from Thursday’s trade, total open interest in gold rose about 6,000 contracts, which suggests a combination of short covering and new buying entered the market. Silver saw open interest rise nearly 1,900 contracts. Open interest is the number of tradable positions left in the market at the end of the session.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Based on technical charts, gold prices appear to have more upside. However, some bullion dealers said they’re going to take a wait-and-see approach next week because the rally still hasn’t budged physical buyers into opening their wallets.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]“We could see the market pull back because the physical market remains out. If we get physical demand back then we can start to build a base as such,” said one European bullion dealer.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]There have been some hopes that Indian buyers would return to the market, based on signals from India’s new government possibly relaxing import duties. Yet Frederic Neuaman, HSBC’s co-head of Asian economic research, said the country faces near-term economic challenges as the Indian meteorological services warn of a possible dry summer and poor monsoon season. These challenges could impact gold demand, Neuman said. Indian farmers buy a significant amount of gold.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Food prices may rise if harvests are poor, and crude oil prices are rising because of the Iraq tensions. Higher oil prices may mean a rising current account deficit, he said.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]“This would reverse some of the improvement in the current account deficit in the last year. What does this mean for India’s gold demand and ultimately gold prices? A wider current account deficit argues against the case to relax India’s gold trade restrictions, which would keep prices higher than London prices,” said James Steel, analyst, HSBC. “A reversal of the improvements in the current account deficit late last year may prove to be a roadblock for the Reserve Bank of India to ease gold restrictions.”[/FONT]


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## alshangiti (24 يونيو 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly higher Tuesday and hit a 10-week high overnight. Safe-haven demand and a much-improved technical posture in gold recently are fueling upside price pressure. August Comex gold was last up $1.20 at $1,319.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $1.20 at $1,320.00. July Comex silver last traded up $0.135 at $21.15 an ounce.


There was a heavy slate of U.S. economic data released Tuesday, including the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index. However, these reports were not big markets-movers.


In other news Tuesday, the German Ifo consumer sentiment survey came in weaker than expected. The Ifo reading was 109.7 in June versus 110.4 in May. A figure of 110.2 was expected. Worries about the Iraq and Ukraine crisis weighed on German consumer sentiment. The downbeat Ifo report adds more weight to the notions that the European Union’s economy remains in serious trouble. This is also an underlying supportive factor for the safe-haven gold market.


The civil war in Iraq remains a market factor. While the matter could still be prompting some risk aversion in the market place and is still supportive for gold and U.S. Treasury prices, the U.S. stock indexes are hovering near record or multi-year highs, which hints risk aversion is not that keen at present. However, it’s likely the Iraqi crisis will not go away and could escalate at any time.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,318.50 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,323.00.


Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range and hit a 10-week high Tuesday. Gold market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,331.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,326.60 and then at $1,331.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,314.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,307.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0


December silver futures prices closed near mid-range Tuesday and hit another three-month high. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.86 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $21.255 and then at $21.50. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at this week’s low of $20.86. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.


December N.Y. copper closed up 30 points at 314.15 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and closed at a three-week high close today. Copper bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 316.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 300.95 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 315.00 cents and then at 316.50 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 312.30 cents and then at this week’s low of 310.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.


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## alshangiti (9 أغسطس 2014)

​(Kitco News) - Simmering geopolitical concerns and a spate of economic data from China, Europe and the U.S. will vie for the gold market’s attention next week.

December gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,311 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, but up 1.25% on the week. September silver fell Friday, settling at $19.94 an ounce, down 2.1% on the week. 


In the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Gold prices surged late in the week on geopolitical issues, starting with mid-week news that Russian President Vladimir Putin again amassed troops on Ukraine’s border. Overnight gold prices rose to a three-week high on news that U.S. President Barack Obama authorized air strikes against militants in Iraq. Additionally Israel and Hamas broke their cease-fire.


Analysts at Barclays said in addition to gold, crude oil price rallied this week on the various geopolitical news items and equity markets fell on a weekly basis as “global risk sentiment deteriorated… As a result, the week is closing with heavy losses in major equity indices, notably in Europe … and Asia, while safe havens are rallying.”


Some profit-taking on Friday curbed gold’s gains and limited equities losses ahead of the weekend. Still, one North American bullion dealer said going into next week, he is going to err on the long side.


“There (are) just so many things going on, geopolitically, economic reports, a few wars going on, gold could be really choppy. The tone is a little bullish right now. I’m not necessarily bullish on gold, but you’d have to be a fool to be short,” he said.


Technical charts are gold-supportive with the move back over $1,300, Barclays said. “Cross-asset risk reduction is helping to provide a bid for gold; we look for a move above $1,325 to confirm higher toward targets near $1,345 and then the $1,365 area,” Barclays said.


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## alshangiti (20 أغسطس 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices sold off moderately in the aftermath of FOMC minutes that revealed Fed officials believe the U.S. labor situation is moving closer to normal, and with other clues hinting the Fed could raise interest rates sooner than many expected. December Comex gold was last down $6.50 at $1,290.20 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $5.90 at $1,289.75. December Comex silver last traded up $0.009 at $19.485 an ounce.


The FOMC minutes report was the economic highlight of the day for the market place. The Fed officials’ wording that the U.S. labor situation continues to improve fell into the camp of monetary policy hawks, as it hinted the U.S. central bank could move to raise interest rates sooner than many expected.


Now, focus turns to later this week and the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that begins on Thursday. The confab of world central bankers has in the past yielded important U.S. monetary policy speeches and clues to the direction of monetary policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak on Friday in Jackson Hole.


In overnight news, the German government auctioned its two-year note (the Schatz) at a zero percent yield, amid strong investor demand. This underscores the keener risk aversion still in the market place, especially in the European Union, where slow to negative economic growth and very low inflation are serious concerns. It was also reported that German producer prices fell 0.1% on the month and were down 0.8% on the year in July.


A feature in the market place recently has been a stronger U.S. dollar against the other major currencies of the world. The U.S. dollar index, which is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback, hit an 11-month high overnight. There has been increased safe-haven demand for the dollar amid the recent heightened geopolitical tensions. The stronger dollar is a bearish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,295.00 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,294.50.


Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-week low Wednesday. Gold bulls and bears are still on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the August high of $1,324.30. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,281.00. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,304.90. First support is seen at $1,289.00 and then at $1,281.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0


December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low on tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low. Silver prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $19.65 and then at this week’s high of $19.765. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $19.425 and then at $19.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.


December N.Y. copper closed up 740 points at 319.30 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on heavy short covering from recent selling pressure. Bulls today regained some upside near-term technical momentum. Copper bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 310.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 320.00 cents and then at 321.00 cents. First support is seen at 317.50 cents and then at 315.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.


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## alshangiti (21 أغسطس 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session sharply lower and hit a two-month low Thursday.
The metal saw selling pressure in the wake of hawkish minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC), by a rallying U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high Thursday, and by better risk appetite in the market place this week. The near-term technical posture for gold also turned bearish Thursday. December Comex gold was last down $19.70 at $1,275.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $16.80 at $1,275.00. December Comex silver last traded down $0.077 at $19.495 an ounce.


The market place on Thursday was still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC report. The Fed officials’ wording that the U.S. labor situation continues to improve fell into the camp of monetary policy hawks, as it hinted the U.S. central bank could move to raise interest rates a bit sooner than many had expected. The FOMC minutes also pressured U.S. Treasury prices, but the U.S. stock indexes ignored the data as the Nasdaq index set a 14-year high Thursday, while the S&P 500 futures hit a record high. The better investor/trader risk appetite in the market place this week has pushed money toward the stock market and away from safe-haven assets.


Focus now turns to the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that begins on Thursday. The confab of world central bankers has in the past yielded important U.S. monetary policy speeches and clues to the direction of monetary policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are scheduled to speak on Friday in Jackson Hole.


In overnight news, the HSBC China preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in August versus 51.7 in July. The August reading was a three-month low for the figure, and the market place deemed the report downbeat. The China data is an underlying bearish factor for the raw commodity sector. China is the world’s largest importer of raw commodities.


The European Union’s August composite PMI was also a miss for the market place, as it came in at 52.8 versus expectations for a reading of 53.4. Still, European and Asian stock markets chose to focus more on the bull market run in U.S. equities, and less on their downbeat economic data.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,275.25 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,280.50.


Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-month low Thursday. Gold bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage and have established a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,281.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $1,292.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,273.40 and then at $1,270.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0


December silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and hit a two-month low Thursday. Silver prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $19.65 and then at this week’s high of $19.765. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $19.355 and then at $19.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.


December N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 319.45 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 310.20 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 320.45 cents and then at 321.00 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 317.15 cents and then at 315.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.


By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff


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## alshangiti (22 أغسطس 2014)

(Kitco News) - Economic data will become the focus for the gold market again next week, and the data will likely show continued split between the U.S. and European economies.


That could mean further gains for the U.S. dollar, but some analysts also point out that the dollar might be due for a retreat after strong gains this week. If the dollar does retreat, that could help gold, which finally buckled under the pressure of a stronger dollar earlier in the week.


December gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,280.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 2% on the week. September silver fell Friday, settling at $19.386 an ounce, down 2.8% on the week. 


In the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, eight survey participants see higher prices, while 12 see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Price rose Friday on some profit-taking after being weaker much of the week, with modest support from new skirmishes in Ukraine by Russian convoys. Despite Friday’s news, geopolitical concerns took a back seat to improving U.S. economic data, allowing bearish gold traders to remove some price premium.


The metal also slumped after the release of the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes showed the Fed remarking on the improving U.S. labor situation. That could cause the central bank to raise interest rates sooner than later.


The market had little reaction to comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who spoke at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium conference Friday. Most market observers said she struck a neutral tone as she said the U.S. economy is moving closer to the central bank’s objectives.


Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said regarding monetary policy, the Fed is getting more comfortable about the eventual need for tighter policy.


“U.S. economic data has been aces for a while now, and notwithstanding what is happening in the rest of the world, the U.S. central bank must start talking less accommodation. Let's remember, the Fed's mandate is to care only about the U.S. So, unless developments outside of the USA are perceived to change the domestic situation, Janet Yellen and friends will not take the woes of other nations into consideration,” he said.


This week’s U.S. economic data also came in firm, particularly housing and weekly jobless claims. That pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index to all-time highs, the 28th time the index set new highs this year. That pressured gold this week, says George Gero, precious metals strategist and vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.


The gold market is ignoring geopolitical concerns “and is concentrating on one thing only: price makes news. The stock market price is making news and all the funds have to be in it. If you look at open interest they’ve been selling gold and buying stocks,” he said.


So far the S&P 500 is up about 8% year-to-date while global equities are up about 3%, which also underscores the split between the U.S. and the rest of the world, Melek said, adding the concern about global growth is also seen in the generally weak commodity performance, he said.


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## alshangiti (29 أغسطس 2014)

(Kitco News) - Economic news and geopolitical events may continue to influence gold next week, and some analysts said the two factors may offset each other, which could leave gold stuck in its current range, surprises notwithstanding.


December gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,290.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.8% on the week. September silver fell Friday, settling at $19.398 an ounce, up 0.06% on the week. On the month, gold ended up 0.6% and is up 7.4% on the year. Silver is ended August down 5% and is up 0.3% year-to-date.


On Monday, U.S. financial markets and government offices are closed for the Labor Day holiday.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, nine see higher prices next week, six see lower prices and seven see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Gold prices were little changed this week and market participants said volumes were light as many people likely took advantage of the unofficial last week of summer for last-minute vacations. With Monday being a holiday in the U.S., low attendance may linger into Tuesday’s trade, too.


Analysts said they are watching the outcomes of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and Friday’s U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report for gold direction.


With weak economic data coming out of Europe, such as Thursday’s soft inflation readings, economists are looking for ECB to take some sort of action, with a cut to interest rates likely.


Jim Russell, senior equity strategist for US Bank Wealth Management, said given ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments regarding concerns of falling prices at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium last week, Thursday’s meeting might be the chance for him to “pursue this concept a little bit more forcefully. It’s clear that Europe is close to a deflationary scenario.... There’s no question they could use help here. The argument he is likely to make at the ECB has strong credibility behind it.”


Analysts at Nomura said the ECB could cut all key interest rates by 10 basis points Thursday or by October at the latest, which would lower the refi rate to 0.05% and the deposit rate to minus 0.20%.






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## alshangiti (4 سبتمبر 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower Thursday. The yellow metal saw selling pressure develop during the session as the U.S. dollar index pushed sharply higher and hit a 13-month high. The gold-bullish elements of the interest rate cut and quantitative easing announcement from the European Central Bank Thursday were offset by the surging greenback. December Comex gold was last down $4.00 at $1,266.30 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $3.80 at $1,266.00. December Comex silver last traded down $0.074 at $19.115 an ounce.


The ECB lowered its key interest rate to very near zero, at .005%. The market place reckoned the ECB was on the verge of announcing fresh monetary stimulus. There was uncertainty on the precise timing of any such move. ECB president Mario Draghi’s press conference saw the modest quantitative easing package unveiled. The Euro currency sunk to a 13-month low on the ECB news.


Next up is the U.S. jobs report on Friday, which will give the latest reading on the important non-farm payrolls growth, seen at up 220,000 in August. Recent improving U.S. economic data suggests the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down its quantitative easing of monetary policy by the end of this year, and will likely begin to raise interest rates sometime in 2015.


There was a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment report, the Challenger job cuts report, revised productivity and costs, the international trade report, the U.S. services PMI, the ICSC chain store sales report, the DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the ISM non-manufacturing report. That data was a mixed bag but mostly upbeat.


On the geopolitical front there have been no major, markets-moving developments this week. The Russia-Ukraine stand-off continues to simmer, with a cease-fire maybe in place, but maybe not. The U.S. and U.K. continue to ratchet up their defensive postures against the ISIS terrorists in the Middle East.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,271.50 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,271.00.


Technically, December gold futures prices closed near the session low Thursday. Prices are hovering near this week’s 10-week low. Gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as a seven six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,290.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,275.00 and then at $1,280.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,261.90 and then at $1,250.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0


December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-month low Thursday. Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. A seven-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.75 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $19.39 and then at this week’s high of $19.565. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $19.09 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.


December N.Y. copper closed up 260 points at 315.30 cents Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range. Copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 324.60 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 310.20 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 317.30 cents and then at 319.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 312.55 cents and then at 311.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.


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## alshangiti (12 سبتمبر 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session lower and dropped to a seven-month low Thursday. Bearish chart postures in both gold and silver are allowing the sellers to dominate activity, amid a lack of major, markets-moving fundamentals news this week. Weak long liquidation from would-be bargain hunters in futures markets is also a feature for both gold and silver recently. December Comex gold was last down $6.30 at $1,239.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $10.80 at $1,238.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.301 at $18.625 an ounce.


In overnight news, China’s consumer price index was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, in August, versus up 2.3% in July. A rise of 2.2% was expected for August. That’s some good news for the beleaguered raw commodity sector, as it suggests China, the world’s largest raw commodity importer, won’t have to tighten its monetary policy to keep inflation in check.


In another sign of the present ill health of the raw commodity sector, the United Nations reported Thursday that world food prices fell to a four-year low in August. Crude oil and grains are leading a price slump in the raw commodity sector. Brent crude oil prices fell to a 16-month low overnight.


The surging U.S. dollar index is another bearish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector. The dollar index is at a 14-month high. Most major raw commodities are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. When the greenback appreciates against the other currencies, it makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive to purchase with those currencies.


On the geopolitics front, U.S. President Obama said Wednesday evening the U.S. military will use more air strikes against the ISIS terrorists, but will put no troops on the ground in the Middle East. That news was not unexpected and had little markets impact.


Meantime, The Russia-Ukraine cease-fire is holding up. Reports Wednesday quoted the Ukrainian president as saying most Russian troops have now pulled away from the Russia-Ukraine border. Reports also said the new European Union sanctions on Russia will go into effect on Friday.


U.S. economic data released Thursday included the weekly jobless claims report, which came in weaker than expected (a rise in claims). That report had little lasting impact on the markets, however. Traders and investors are already looking ahead to next week, and a more robust batch of economic data points, highlighted by the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Next week is also the much-anticipated referendum on Scotland’s independence from the U.K.


The London P.M. gold fix was $1,241.25 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,247.00.


Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a seven-month low Thursday. Gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,272.60. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at $1,245.00 and then at $1,250.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,235.30 and then at $1,230.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5


December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 15-month low Thursday. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $19.345 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $18.75 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $18.57 and then at $18.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.


December N.Y. copper closed down 170 points at 309.35 cents Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month low. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 320.95 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 300.95 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 311.70 cents and then at 315.00 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 306.25 cents and then at 305.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.


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## alshangiti (12 سبتمبر 2014)

تستمر أسعار الذهب بالانخفاض خلال تعاملات هذا الأسبوع حيث استمرت بالهبوط لأدنى مستوياتها عند 1244 دولار للأونصة, إلا أن الدولار لا يزال سيد الموقف ويجذب المستثمرين إليه.
وفيما يلي التحليل الفني لأزواج العملات الرئيسية والذهب. 


إنخفضت أسعار الذهب خلال جلسة تعاملات يوم أمس الأربعاء من أعلى مستوى لها عند 1257.40 دولار ، لتصل لأدنى مستوى لها عند 1243.51 دولاراً للأونصة وأغلقت تداولاتها بالقرب من مستويات 1248.40 دولار للأونصة , ويحاول جاهداً للوقوف في وجه تقدم الدولار الأمريكي المستمر الا أن الضغط أقوى ليجبره على التراجع أدنى مستويات 1250 دولار ونجح في الثبات دون ذلك ليقترب من أعتاب الدعم الهام 1240 دولار مما سيزيد من الضغط على الذهب لإختبار مستويات أدنى من ذلك .


استمرار انخفاض أسعار الذهب بقوة منذ بداية تعاملاته الأسبوعية، إلا أنه يتداول أسفل مستويات متوسط متحرك 50 و 200 يوم، وأسفل الدعم 1258 دولار للأونصة ، ومن مستويات الدعم الهامة 1220 – 1240 دولار مع استمرار قوة الدولار الأمريكي .


إيجابية الذهب في العودة أعلى مستويات 1258 دولارا للأونصة والثبات فوقها سيجعله يتجاوز مستويات المقاومة 1266.52 دولار، وحينها سيؤهل الذهب من الوصول لمستويات المقاومة 1279.00 دولارا للأونصة واختراقها سيفتح له المجال لزيارة المقاومة الهامة عند 1300 دولار والتى تعتبر حاجز نفسي لاختراقها وإذا نجح في ذلك سيشهد ارتفاعات عند 1319.23 دولار ومن ثم عند 1345.12 دولاراً للأونصة . 
استمرار سلبية التداول أسفل مستويات المقاومة الهامة 1250 - 1266 دولار للأونصة ، سيجبر الذهب على الوصول لمستويات 1240 دولارا للأونصة ومن ثم عند مستويات الدعم 1231.22 وأخيراً عند 1221.13 دولاراً للأونصة بشرط كسرنقطة الدعم 1245 دولار والثبات أسفل تلك النقطة ليدعم استمرار الميل الهابط المقترح.


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## alshangiti (17 سبتمبر 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html
Gold price drop to 1222.8 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (19 سبتمبر 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold futures stabilized as Thursday’s session wore on due to profit-taking and short covering, bouncing from the lowest level since early January after overnight selling in the wake of a U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting.


Some physical demand also emerged on the price pullback that began late Wednesday.


Before the comeback, gold fell after Fed commentary was construed to mean rate hikes in the U.S. just might occur faster in 2015 than the market previously thought, underpinning the U.S. dollar, analysts said. That hurt gold even though policy-makers otherwise said they would maintain low rates for a “considerable time” yet.


“Despite the language in the statement, it seems that the bank is preparing the market for higher interest rates, which can be seen as gold bearish,” said Rob Kurzatkowski, senior commodity analyst with optionsXpress. “Tying the interest-rate policy to the labor market potentially gives the Fed justification for deviating from its low interest policy if labor conditions improve.”


Around the 1:30 p.m. EDT close of the pit session on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, most-active December gold was down $9, or 0.7%, to $1,226.90 an ounce. Spot metal was up $3.05 to $1,226.15 (the prices of spot and futures were not far apart, but the change for the day was since the closing times for the previous session are a few hours apart).


December silver was down 20.4 cents, or 1.1%, to $18.53 an ounce.


While weaker, December gold avoided further momentum-based selling, holding after hitting a low of $1,216.30 an ounce in electronic trading shortly before the open-outcry session began. This was the contract’s lowest level since Jan. 2.


“We pared the loss because people covered shorts ahead of the weekend,” said George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. Short covering is when traders buy to offset positions in which they previously went short, or placed bearish bets, either to capture a profit or otherwise exit a trade.


He also cited an “extreme buildup” in puts, which “indicated to the traders that there may be extreme selling and pessimism already in the market.” Puts give the holder the right to sell at an agreed price during the lift of the options contract.


“We had such a big sell-off…and are seeing these fresh lows. So I think you are getting a little bit of profit-taking on this,” said Tommy Capalbo, precious-metals broker with Newedge.


Capalbo also cited “opportunistic buying,” with a pick-up in physical demand on the price retreat. Triland Metals reported that Shanghai gold premiums traded as high as $8 on “dip buying.”


“It’s attempting to make a little bit of a bottom. There does seem to be some interest, even though it did get hammered yesterday,” said one New York trader. “I think it’s just a reaction to its recent weakness.”


Gold was hurt during the last 24 hours as U.S. dollar strengthened. However, the trader said, the euro has since stabilized, likely helping gold stem its decline. The single European currency managed to edge up to $1.29122 from $1.28446 in late-Thursday North American trading.


“If the euro was getting hammered again, I imagine gold would be down by the lows,” the trader said.


Gold was sideways during Wednesday’s electronic session as traders marked time ahead of the FOMC outcome. Then, in after-hours screen trading, the metal began to slide even though a post-meeting statement said the committee would still be leaving interest rates low for a “considerable time” after the end of the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing.


However, in a press conference, Chair Janet Yellen hinted that the Fed could act sooner if economic conditions warrant, saying “I do feel we have the flexibility to move.” Also, the collective forecasts from individual Fed members suggested once they do start tightening, they might be doing so faster than previously expected. Their median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 was 1.375%, compared to 1.125% in June.


“Of course, higher rates mean a strong dollar,” Gero said. This tends to hurt gold due to an inverse correlation. “I also think higher rates are anti-inflationary.”


A number of traders have listed $1,200 as a key psychological downside level for gold. Kurzatkowski listed the next significant chart support for December gold at $1,185 and $1,075. The first level of $1,185 is where December gold held during the final day of 2013 before bouncing into 2014.


“The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at oversold levels, which could be seen as supportive of prices in the near term,” he said.


U.S. economic data was somewhat mixed Thursday morning, with jobless claims stronger than forecast but housing starts and a Philadelphia Fed survey weaker than expected.


Housing starts fell 14.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 956,000 units, the Commerce Department said. Expectations were for around 1.04 million. However, the Labor Department said first-time weekly jobless claims fell by 36,000 to 280,000, when expectations were for around 312,000.


The headline index in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing survey fell to 22.5 in September from a three-year high of 28.0 in August. Expectations were for around a 23.0 to 24.0 reading in September.


The lone U.S. economic report on the calendar for Friday is August leading economic indicators at 10 a.m. EDT.


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2014)

(Kitco News) - Gold prices fell to eight-month lows this week, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates, and market watchers said if gains by the dollar and stock indexes continue, gold prices could slip to $1,200.


That is about $14 from this week’s lows, but is also not far from the December 2013 low of around $1,180, considered an important support point.


December gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,216.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.2% on the week. December silver fell Friday, settling at $17.844 an ounce, down 4% on the week. This was the lowest price in four years for silver.


In the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, seven see higher prices, 13 see lower prices and four see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.


Gold prices fell this week as the U.S. dollar rose to new highs, along with real interest rates following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Policy-makers said they would keep interest rates low for a “considerable time,” but their collective forecasts suggested that whenever they do hike the federal funds rate, they could do so more quickly than what was reflected in the last forecasts in June.


Mike McGlone, director of research in the U.S. for ETF Securities, said the U.S. dollar and equities strength are hampering gold and it’s likely to remain that way until something turns in either of those markets.


“The environment is still bad for metals. The main thing that hasn’t changed is the number one asset class is drawing capital – that’s equities. Until that stops,” gold will be under pressure, he said.


Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist, U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said the dollar strength is likely to continue “well into next year.”


“We’re reaching highs we haven’t seen in a couple of years, there seems like there is room for a pause to refresh the dollar,” Haworth said. “But the fundamentals for the dollar remain fairly constructive at this point. We have higher interest rates than in Europe, we’re on the cusp of raising interest rates, our economy is healthy, we think the fundamental trend of stronger dollar continues into next year.”


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2014)

Gold May Test $1,200/Oz If Dollar, Stock Gains Continue


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2014)

https://live.barcap.com/PRC/servlet...mFile=YES&fileType=pdf&fileName=103391294.pdf


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## alshangiti (20 سبتمبر 2014)

تتأثر أسعار الذهب بعدة عوامل مختلفة، يتأثر سعر الذهب بطرابته العكسي مع الدولار الأمريكي، يرتبط الذهب والدولار الأميركي إرتباطاً عكسياً، أي عادةً إذا إرتفع الدولار الأمريكي يكون هناك إحتمال أن نرى أسعار الذهب تنخفض والعكس صحيح، يتأثر سعر الذهب أيضاً بعدد الأنتاج السنوي، البنوك المركزية، والاحصاءت اليومية المهمات على سبيل المثال إجتماع الجنة الفدرالية الأميركية أو قرار معدلات الفائدة للمصرف الأوروبي المركزي من المعروف أن أسعار الذهب مسعرة بالدولار الأمريكي، مثلاً إذا كان سعر الذهب ألف دولار أمريكي، هذا يعني أن أونصة الذهب والتي تزن 31.10 غرام تساوي ألف دولار أمريكي


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## alshangiti (25 سبتمبر 2014)

*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices erased early losses and finished the U.S. day session firmer and near their daily highs Thursday. The yellow metal was lifted on short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a nine-month low in overnight trading. The U.S. dollar index backed well down from its daily high and the U.S. stock indexes sold off sharply, which further encouraged the gold market bulls to step up and do some buying. December Comex gold was last up $2.50 at $1,222.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $4.80 at $1,222.00. December Comex silver last traded down $0.222 at $17.48 an ounce.
A feature in the market place this week has been the surging U.S. dollar versus most of the other major world currencies. The U.S. dollar index hit a four-year high Thursday, while the Euro currency dropped to a 14-month low against the greenback. The dollar has been lifted by recent U.S. economic data that has been mostly upbeat, combined with some downbeat economic data coming out of the European Union, Japan and other major industrialized countries. The U.S. dollar could continue to trend higher in the coming weeks, or longer, as it appears the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the other major world central banks will continue on divergent paths. The U.S. Fed is reeling in its very easy money policies of the past few years, while the European Central Bank continues to provide monetary stimulus to the flagging European Union collective economy.
The appreciating value of the dollar on the world foreign exchange markets has been a significantly bearish development for many raw commodities, which are priced in U.S. dollars on the world markets. Gold is at a nine-month low, while silver prices this week hit a four-year low. Grain markets are in the tank and crude oil prices are also in a downtrend. Keep in mind that most raw commodity prices are very cyclical. Savvy traders realize this and are presently looking for value-buying opportunities in the present “valley” of the raw commodity cycle—knowing there will be another surge to a “peak” in the cycle in the coming months or few years.
The London P.M. gold fix was $1,213.75 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,210.50.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday. Gold bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as a 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,237.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,224.80 and then at $1,230.00. First support is seen at of $1,214.70 and then at today’s low of $1,206.60. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.5 
December silver futures closed near mid-range and hit a contract and four-year low Thursday. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $17.69 and then at this week’s high of $17.99. Next support is seen at Thursday’s contract low of $17.27 and then at of $17.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 200 points at 303.40 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a 13-week low. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 312.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 300.95 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 306.35 cents and then at this week’s high of 308.60 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 301.95 cents and then at 300.95 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


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## alshangiti (3 أكتوبر 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-10-0...S-Jobs-Data-Drops-Below-1200-to-9-Mo-Low.html


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## alshangiti (6 أكتوبر 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

gold price move from. 1185. To 1207. $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (7 أكتوبر 2014)

[h=1]Gold Up on Short Covering, Bargain Hunting, Weaker U.S. Dollar Index[/h]

Tuesday October 7, 2014 2:24 PM
*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly higher Tuesday, on short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market. The weakening U.S. dollar index this week is also a bullish underlying factor for gold and the other precious metals. The gold market bulls are vigorously defending major technical support at the $1,180.00 area, which is the 2013 low. This important technical level could be an inflection point for the gold market. If the gold market bulls can continue to push prices higher this week, it would then be an early technical clue of at least a near-term market bottom being in place for the yellow metal. December Comex gold was last up $4.20 at $1,211.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $4.40 at $1,211.60. December Comex silver last traded down $0.04 at $17.185 an ounce.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday reduced its world economic growth estimate, dropping the annual growth rate to 3.8% from 4% in an earlier forecast. The news is not surprising but did add a bit to the risk aversion seen in the market place on Tuesday. This pressured the U.S. stock market, which in turn also lent some buying interest to safe-haven gold.
There was also dour economic news coming out of the European Union Tuesday, as Germany’s factory output was down 4% on the month in August, which was well below expectations of a decline of 1.5%. The struggling European Union economy continues to be a major drag on the entire world economic system. The sinking Euro currency is a result of the economic troubles in the EU. Also, the U.S. dollar has garnered much of its recent strength from a flagging Euro currency.
Most of China has been on holiday the past week and Wednesday is the end of the Golden Week holiday. The commodity markets will see increased participation from the Chinese, and look to fresh China economic readings, as the world’s second-largest economy gets back to work.
The highlight of the U.S. data week is Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes. Recent months have seen the FOMC minutes move the markets.
The London P.M. gold fix was $1,210.50 versus the previous London A.M. fixing of $1,207.57.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Tuesday. Gold bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, this week’s price action begins to hint the bears may be exhausted. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,232.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below strong longer-term technical support at $1,180.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,214.10 and then at $1,220.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,203.00 and then at $1,200.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5 
December silver futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far above last week’s contract and four-year low. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.50. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $17.625 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at $17.00 and then at the contract low of $16.64. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
December N.Y. copper closed up 5 points at 303.60 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on mild short covering. Copper prices last week hit a 5.5-month low. Copper bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 310.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 288.45 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 304.35 cents and then at last week’s high of 306.75 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 301.75 cents and then at 300.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


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## alshangiti (8 أكتوبر 2014)

Gold price move up by 10.4 $. 
5.8 $ due to weakening of US$. And 4.6 due to normal trading. 
Now price 1218 $ per oz before closing of the market


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## alshangiti (23 أكتوبر 2014)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

gold price drop today to 1231$ per oz.


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## alshangiti (1 نوفمبر 2014)

هبطت أسعار الذهب والفضة، الجمعة، إلى أدنى مستوياتهما منذ عام 2010 مع صعود الدولار وأسواق الأسهم في أعقاب جولة جديدة من إجراءات التيسير الكمي لبنك اليابان المركزي وبيانات قوية عن الاقتصاد الأميركي.

ووجد الدولار دعما في بيانات الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأميركي القوية والخطوة المفاجئة التي اتخذها بنك اليابان المركزي لتوسيع برنامجه للتيسير الكمي وهو ما أدى إلى تراجع الين.

ونزل سعر الذهب في المعاملات الفورية ما يصل إلى 3% إلى 1161.25 دولار للأوقية (الأونصة) مسجلا أدنى مستوى له منذ يوليو تموز عام 2010.

وتسارعت خسائر المعدن الأصفر بعد إعلان بنك اليابان قراره المفاجئ الذي دفع الدولار إلى أعلى مستوياته في الجلسة، وبحلول الساعة 19:57 بتوقيت غرينتش سجل سعر الذهب 1171.71 دولار منخفضا 2.25%. 

وانخفض سعر الذهب في العقود الأميركية الآجلة في بورصة كومكس عند التسوية 2.25% إلى 1171.60 دولار للأوقية.

وهبط سعر الفضة نحو 4% إلى 15.76 دولار للأوقية، الجمعة، مسجلة أدنى مستوياتها منذ فبراير 2010.

ويتجه المعدن إلى تكبد رابع خسارة شهرية له على التوالي، إذ سجلت الفضة في أحدث تعامل عليها 16.14 دولار منخفضة 1.7%. 

وتراجع البلاتين 0.7% إلى 1229.5 دولار للأوقية، بينما ارتفع البلاديوم 1.8% إلى 788.5 دولار للأوقية.


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## alshangiti (3 نوفمبر 2014)

Gold price rech 1167 $ per oz. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (7 نوفمبر 2014)

ارتفع سعر الذهب، الجمعة، أكثر من واحد في المائة، متعافيا من أدنى مستوياته في أربع سنوات ونصف السنة، بعد صدور بيانات الوظائف الأميركية التي جاءت أدنى من التنبؤات، وأدت إلى تراجع الدولار.ومع ذلك، فإن الذهب يتجه على ما يبدو إلى تسجيل ثالث خسائره الأسبوعية على التوالي، بعد أن هوى إلى 1131.85 دولار للأوقية، في أدنى مستوى له منذ أبريل 2010، في وقت سابق الجمعة.وبحلول الساعة 14:35 بتوقيت غرينتش، سجل سعر الذهب في المعاملات الفورية 1153.20 دولار للأوقية (الآونصة) مرتفعا 1.1 في المائة.وسجل سعر العقود الآجلة للذهب للتسليم في ديسمبر في بورصة كومكس 1153 دولارا، مرتفعا 10.40 دولار. وانخفضت الأسعار الفورية 1.8 في المائة على مدى الأسبوع.ويتعرض الذهب لضغوط منذ أسبوع من جراء صعود الدولار بفعل التفاؤل الاقتصادي وتوقعات بأن يرفع مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي (البنك المركزي الأميركي) أسعار الفائدة عاجلا وليس آجلا، وأنه سيتحرك قبل البنوك المركزية الأخرى لتشديد السياسة النقدية.وتراجع الدولار مقلصا بعض مكاسبه بعد أن قالت وزارة العمل الأميركية، الجمعة، إن أرباب الأعمال في الولايات المتحدة أضافوا 214 ألف وظيفة جديدة إلى كشوف رواتبهم الشهر الماضي، مقارنة بتنبؤات المحللين بزيادة قدرها 231 ألف وظيفة.


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## alshangiti (7 نوفمبر 2014)

Gold market close at 1178 $. ......!,,,,?......

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (14 نوفمبر 2014)

Gold price now 1191 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (25 نوفمبر 2014)

Gold price today 1197 $ per oz. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (27 نوفمبر 2014)

انخفض الذهب، الخميس، متأثرا بمكاسب مؤشر الدولار ونزوح جديد من أكبر صندوق مؤشرات مدعوم بالذهب في العالم.ونزل السعر الفوري للذهب 0.2 بالمائة إلى 1195.60 دولار للأوقية (الأونصة) بحلول الساعة 1100 بتوقيت غرينتش، بينما نزلت عقود الذهب الأميركية الآجلة تسليم ديسمبر 2.30 دولار إلى 1194.30 دولار للأوقية.وقفز الذهب أمام سلة عملات مع تراجع اليورو أمام العملة الأميركية بعد أن أظهرت بيانات تراجع أسعار المستهلكين في إسبانيا بأكثر من المتوقع.وتحركت أسعار الذهب في نطاق 20 دولارا هذا الأسبوع بعد أن هوت لأقل مستوى في أربع سنوات ونصف هذا الشهر، بينما يحاول المتعاملون أن يتعرفوا على الاتجاه التالي للذهب.واستؤنف النزوح من صندوق "إس.بي.دي.أر"، أكبر صندوق مؤشرات مدعوم بالذهب في العالم، بعد نحو أسبوع، مما أضر بالأسعار.ونزلت حيازات الصندوق 0.29 في المائة إلى 718.82 طن، الأربعاء، قرب أقل مستوى في ست سنوات، وفق ما ذكرت وكالة رويترز.ويترقب المتعاملون حاليا استفتاء تجريه سويسرا يوم الأحد بشأن احتياطيات البنك المركزي من الذهب.ويقول محللون إنه إذا جاءت نتيجة الاستفتاء بنعم سيتعين على المركزي السويسري شراء نحو 1500 طن من الذهب خلال السنوات القليلة المقبلة.وبين المعادن النفيسة الأخرى نزلت الفضة 0.6 بالمائة إلى 16.37 دولار للأوقية، بينما تراجع البلاتين 0.3 بالمائة إلى 1219.30 دولار للأوقية ونزل البلاديوم 0.6 بالمائة إلى 795.47 دولار للأوقية.


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## alshangiti (2 ديسمبر 2014)

نزل سعر الذهب واحدا بالمئة الثلاثاء، مع تجدد التكهنات باحتمال أن يشرع مجلس الاحتياطي الاتحادي في تشديد السياسة النقدية في وقت ما في منتصف العام المقبل، في ظل قوة الدولار ومؤشرات على استفادة الاقتصاد الأميركي من تراجع أسعار النفط.ونزل الذهب الفوري واحدا بالمئة إلى 1198.99 دولار للأوقية، وكان قد سجل أمس أكبر قفزة يومية منذ سبتمبر 2013 مرتفعا 4%.ونزل الخام الأميركي في المعاملات الآجلة 1.6% إلى 1198.80 دولار.وتحرك الذهب في المعاملات الفورية في نطاق بلغ 80 دولارا الاثنين، ففي بداية التعاملات نزل الذهب إلى نحو أقل مستوى في ثلاثة أسابيع بعد أن رفض الناخبون في سويسرا زيادة احتياطيات البنك المركزي من المعدن الأصفر، قبل أن يرتفع لاحقا إلى 1220.99 دولار وهو أعلى مستوى في شهر مع تعافي أسعار النفط .وهبطت الفضة في المعاملات الفورية 1.3% إلى 16.21 دولار للأوقية. وفقد البلاتين 1.7% إلى 1212 دولارا كما تراجع البلاديوم 0.8% إلى 798.05 دولار للأوقية.


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## alshangiti (12 ديسمبر 2014)

Gold price now 1222 $ per oz. 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (5 يناير 2015)

Gold price today 1203$ per oz 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (9 يناير 2015)

Gold price now 1213$ per oz 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (17 يناير 2015)

Gold price lose high at 1280 $ per oz 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (17 يناير 2015)

*(Kitco News) - *Safe-haven demand helped gold prices end the week at its highest level since early September and according to most analysts, ongoing volatility should continue to support gold in the upcoming shortened trading week.
Open floor trading of Comex February gold futures settled Friday at $1,276.90 an ounce, up $53.90 or 4.41% since Monday. 
The strong move in gold also helped to drive up silver prices as Comex March silver futures settled the week at $17.750 an ounce, up $1.255 or 7.61% since the start of the week.





Although U.S. markets are closed Monday in celebration of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, volatility will likely pick up Tuesday where it left; analysts anticipate that markets will continue to recover from the aftermath of the Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to discontinue the currency peg against the euro, analysts said. 
Traders and investors are also look forvolatility to remain high as speculation surrounding Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting continues to grow. 
“The rollercoaster ride is far from over… as upcoming ECB QE will refocus the spotlight on the monetary policy divergence themes, likely continuing to place stress on US markets as global investors reposition,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. strategist at TD Securities.
According to some analysts, markets have priced in a 75% chance that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce an expanded quantitative easing that include the purchase of sovereign bonds. 
Bill Baruch, senior commodity broker at iiTrader, said the key will be in the details of the program, which he added will probably disappoint the market’s high expectations.
“I think the risk is that the ECB under-delivers. It is going to add uncertainty to the marketplace, and gold is going to look attractive,” he said. 
Although Baruch didn’t give a time-frame, he said that with gold’s current momentum, he expects to see prices test the next key psychological area of $1,300 an ounce.
“The path of least resistance for gold is higher,” he said.


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## alshangiti (26 فبراير 2015)

Gold price today 1209 $ per oz 
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (12 مارس 2015)

*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices ended the U.S. day session slightly higher in the futures market and with scant losses in the cash. Earlier gains that saw some bargain hunting and short covering were eroded as the trading session progressed. A weaker U.S. dollar index on this day kept the gold and silver market bears in check. April Comex gold was last up $2.80 at $1,153.40 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.19 at $15.555 an ounce.
Gold got no benefit from a weak U.S. retail sales report for February, issued Thursday. Retail sales were down 0.6% from January and up 1.7% year-on-year. A rise of 0.3% was expected. This is the last major U.S. economic report ahead of next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) to determine U.S. monetary policy actions.
The U.S. dollar index saw a corrective pullback Thursday after hitting a 12-year high overnight. However, the dollar index had pared much of its daily losses by afternoon trading Thursday. Meantime, the Euro currency was higher on a short-covering bounce after hitting a 12-year low in early dealings Thursday. 
The currency markets this week are in the spotlight. South Korea on Thursday is the latest country to move to lower its interest rates in order to deflate its currency and invigorate its economy. Thailand reduced its interest rates on Wednesday. The popular catchphrase for this phenomenon is “currency wars.”
In other overnight news, the European Union got some mixed economic news Thursday when industrial production figures showed output declined by 0.1% in January from December, but was up 1.2% year-on-year. There was a bit of upbeat economic data coming out of China Thursday, as bank loans in February were higher than expected.
The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,152.25 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,161.25.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session low today. A seven-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears remain in firm technical control. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,740.40. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $1,143.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,165.70 and then at this week’s high of $1,174.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,146.50 and then at $1,143.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0 
May silver futures prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering in a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a nine-week low. Silver bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.685 and then at $15.825. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.385 and then at this week’s low of $15.26. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
May N.Y. copper closed up 530 points at 265.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 275.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 255.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 268.00 cents and then at 270.00 cents. First support is seen at 262.50 cents and then at today’s low of 259.85 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


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## alshangiti (27 مارس 2015)

*EDITOR'S NOTE: Don't Miss a Beat! Sign-up for the **Kitco News Weekly Roundup**– our newsletter highlighting our most popular features, articles and videos! **Register Here*
[h=1]Gold Lower On Lack Of Safe-Haven Bid, But Remain Sensitive To Geopolitics – HSBC[/h]

Friday March 27, 2015 10:37 AM
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are not attracting much attention Friday, causing gold prices to drop from a lack of safe-haven flows, and analysts at HSBC say they are not surprised that prices have come back down below $1,200 an ounce. “Gold historically rallies during bouts of rising geopolitical tensions but these gains tend to be very fast moving and can be easily given back once the market shifts its focus away from the issues. However, for the time being, gold is likely to remain sensitive to Middle East developments, in our view,” they say. 
*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*

[h=2]U.S. Dollar Pressuring Gold Again – iiTrader[/h]Friday March 27, 2015 9:48 AM
Gold is starting Friday’s North American trading session under some modest pressure as prices drop below the $1,200 an ounce mark. Comex April Gold futures last traded at $1,193.30 an ounce, down almost 1% on the day. Commodity analysts at iiTrader say that a stronger U.S. dollar is taking away some of the yellow metals recent momentum. They add that gold needs to end the day above $1,201 an ounce, and a close below that area will leave “bears with a slight edge after a failure against major support at $1,221.”
*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*

[h=2]Chinese Gold Demand Lackluster, Indian Demand To Pick Up – Commerzbank[/h]Friday March 27, 2015 9:58 AM
Analysts continue to highlight lackluster demand coming out of China. Analysts from Commerzbank say that the trade data from Hong Kong shows that 67.7 tonnes of gold was exported to the mainland, “the lowest monthly figure in six months.” The add that “[p]resumably the month-on-month decline of a good 11% was due to the Chinese New Year celebrations, during which economic activity in the country came to a standstill for one week.” Although Chinese demand has been disappointing, analysts add that Indian demand should start to pick up in April. “Gold demand is also expected to revive in India, where it is relatively subdued at present due to the fact that the fiscal year will be ending next week. This is because the high religious festival of ‘Akshaya Tritiya’ will be celebrated in April, an occasion when a lot of gold is traditionally given as gifts,” they say. 
*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (2 أبريل 2015)

Gold price now 122.2 $ per oz 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (2 أبريل 2015)

Gold price now 1200.2 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (11 أبريل 2015)

*(Kitco News) - *Gold traders will be looking in a full cupboard of U.S. economic data next week as market participants try to figure out what policy-makers are likely to signal when they meet again at the end of the month.
Gold hit its strongest level in one and one-half months Monday after a weak report on U.S. non-farm payrolls, released on Good Friday when U.S. markets were closed, triggered ideas that the Federal Open Market Committee might hold off on tightening monetary policy for longer than previously thought. Over the course of the week, however, the yellow metal subsequently backed off the early-week highs.
Now, many of the other most widely followed U.S. reports are on the calendar for next week, including retail sales, industrial production, inflation and housing data. So participants in gold and other markets will assessing those reports as they try to form opinions on what Fed officials may do at an April 28-29 meeting.
They also will be keeping an eye on the type of demand that emerges in conjunction with a key Indian holiday later this month, as well as a mid-week report on Chinese economic growth, analysts said.
June gold surged to nearly $1,225 an ounce on Monday after a Good Friday report showed that March U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 126,000, the first time they were below 200,000 in months. 
“We’ve been very much responding to the latest print of the payrolls in the gold market,” said Bart Melek, director of commodity strategy with TD Securities. “They came in significantly below expectations. That has pushed back expectations of tightening.”
That tends to support gold several ways. It undermines the U.S. dollar, with traders often buying gold as an alternative currency when the greenback is weak. Also, if the Fed does not hike, this reduces the so-called opportunity cost of holding gold, or the interest earnings that an investor would have lost by holding a non-yielding asset like gold instead.
However, Melek said, Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes was not as dovish as the market had hoped for, and gold pulled back. As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Friday, the June gold contract was trading at $1,204.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although this was still up from the settlement of $1,200.90 eight days ago prior to Good Friday.
“We’ve got a ton of (economic) stuff out next week,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading. “The data will be the focus.”
No U.S. economic reports are on the calendar Monday, but Tuesday brings retail sales and producer prices, followed by the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday. First-time weekly jobless claims, housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed’s business survey are on tap for Thursday, followed by the consumer price index and consumer sentiment on Friday.
Traders in stocks, bonds, the dollar, metals and other markets all will be trying to gauge what the reports collectively mean for future U.S. monetary policy.
“Based on what we’ve heard from the Federal Reserve, any action (by policy-makers) will be driven by data and inflationary expectations,” Melek said.
“Stronger data implies a Federal Reserve that is more likely to tighten, and weaker data a lesser likelihood….We expect the data to be a little weak. That means gold would look better from these levels.”
Lusk added: “Bad news is good for gold and vice-versa. At that the end of the day, it will be what the Fed says.”


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## alshangiti (18 أبريل 2015)

*(Kitco News) - *With the U.S. dollar looking “toppy” and gold close to ending the week above $1,200 an ounce most people in the new Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey agree that prices should move higher next week.
In Wall Street vs. Main Street, out of 31 market professionals surveyed, 22 responded this week. According to the results, 13 experts, or 59%, see prices moving higher, while three, or 14%, see prices down and six, or 27%, see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
Turning to Main Street, 421 votes were collected in Kitco News’ online survey and the results were slightly closer compared to the market professionals. Of those who participated, 188 or 45%, are bullish on gold next week, 140, or 33% are bearish and 93 or 22% are neutral.
On the professional side, analysts said they expect the U.S. dollar to be the biggest factor in gold’s direction next week.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the market is starting to anticipate lower than expected interest rate for a longer period of time, which will be dollar negative and positive for gold
“The dollar may have topped, so even though we are not expecting a sharp decline any time soon, we are unlikely to see higher dollar levels, and that will turn to the benefit of gold,” he said
However, Colin Cieszynski, senior market analyst at CMC Markets, said that he expects gold to remain directionless as sparse economic data won’t provide any clear indication of the U.S. economy
“Unless the Greece situation unravels and sparks capital flight, the focus is likely to be on earnings season which moves indices but not gold,” he said.

Kitco News also received some insightful comments from its online survey.

Rob M, from Orange County, CA wrote in an email to Kitco News that there remains a lot of uncertainty throughout the world, which is why he is neutral on gold. “The negatives push gold high, stability keeps it low. Since we don’t know the future, I voted neutral, at this point in time,” he said.

However, Paul L, from St. Mary’s, ON, Canada said in an email that he is bullish on gold, questioning the strength of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy. 
“The U.S. economy is deep in debt and therefore the $US should not be worth what it is today. It is not backed by gold or any other precious metal,” he said. “So what does the USA have that makes the $US so strong? Really nothing other than the words of the Fed... Gold should be moving upwards towards $5,000 per ounce instead of remaining restrained at around the $1,200 mark.”



[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



59%
Bearish



14%
Neutral27%

VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



45%
Bearish



33%
Neutral22%

​*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (1 مايو 2015)

Gold price now 1187 $ per oz 

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html


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## alshangiti (8 مايو 2015)

*(Kitco News) - *The gold market has managed to cap a four-week losing streak, ending stuck within its well established range, which analysts are not expecting to see break anytime soon.
Friday, Comex June gold futures, settled the session at $1,188.90 an ounce, ending the week up 1%. At the same time Comex May silver future also ended the week in positive territory, settling Friday at $16.44 an ounce, up 1.8% since Monday.



Looking ahead, with no new insight into eventual Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, analysts say gold’s outlook appears muddy. Even among some of the most bullish analysts, gold prices are not expected to break above the top end of the range at $1,221 an ounce, next week.
The Kitco News Main Street vs. Wall Street gold survey shows mixed expectations for next week. For the online survey, 208 people voted; of those, 93 participants, or 45%, expect to see higher gold prices next week while 75 people, or 36%, see lower prices and 40, or 19%, are neutral.
Out of 33 market experts contacted, 21 responded; of those, four participants, or 19%, see higher prices, seven experts, or 33%, see lower prices and 10, or 48%, are neutral on the gold market. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. 
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank described the gold market as a “coin toss,” as it remains directionless in the face of mixed economic data.
Friday’s mixed nonfarms payroll report for April, is not expected to provide any direction as traders spend a quiet week digesting the numbers. The data showed that 223,000 jobs were created last month, relatively in line with consensus; however, February and March numbers were revised down by a total of 39,000 jobs. The data also did not have any major inflation growth as wages grew by only 0.1% last month.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the report removed a June rate hike from the table, but gold is still stuck in its range because it also didn’t push back the timing of the first rate increase either.
The two major U.S. economic reports that will garner market attention next week will be April’s retail sales, to be released Wednesday, and regional manufacturing data from the New York Federal Reserve for May, to be released Friday. 
Consensus forecasts are calling for retail sales to have risen 0.3% in April, following March’s massive rise of 0.9%.
Forecasts for the Empire State survey, show economists expect the index to rise to 5.2 this month, after falling to negative 1.2 in April,
However, Melek added that neither of these reports, if they come in weaker than expected, will have a major impact on Fed rate hike expectations.
“A weak retail sales number for April still isn’t going to stop the Fed from hiking in September,” he said.
Jessica Fung, commodity analyst from BMO Capital Markets, said these current market conditions could last until the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting mid-June. She added that the only thing that could break gold out of its current range is a “black swan” geopolitical event.
“Gold has fallen below people’s radar and it will take something significant to get it back up there,” she said. “Until something unexpected happens, eventual rate hikes will continue to overhang the gold market.”
Although gold is expected to remain range-bound next week, some analysts do see some positives that could help prices hover above the $1,200 an ounce level.
With little economic data to provide any solid direction for gold, some analysts are looking at outside markets for some guidance. George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures said that continued fund allocation into equity markets next week could hurt gold prices.
However, Julian Jessop, head of commodity research at Capital Economics, said that most financial markets are looking a little stretched, which could create volatility, ultimately supporting gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets.


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## alshangiti (10 يونيو 2015)

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

gold price now 1185 $ per oz


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## alshangiti (20 يوليو 2015)

[h=1]Gold Sharply Lower, Hits 5.5-Year Low; Plenty of Bearish Elements, Scant Bullish Factors[/h]By Jim Wyckoff
Monday July 20, 2015 14:02 

*(Kitco News)* - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session solidly lower Monday and hit a five-year low of $1,080 an ounce, basis Comex futures, in Asian trading. Prices did bounce off the lows by the time U.S. trading started, but still traded solidly lower on the day. August Comex gold was last down $24.60 at $1,107.40 an ounce. September Comex silver was last down $0.029 at $14.805 an ounce.
A feature for the entire market place Monday was the sharp sell-off in the gold market. The big downdraft started in Asian trading, in which gold prices swiftly plummeted to the $1,080.00 level before rebounding to trade back above $1,100.00. This suggests a major player was dumping gold.
The Peoples Bank of China—China’s central bank—reported over the weekend that it had gold reserves of 53 million ounces, which is up 57% from the last time it reported on its reserves in 2009. However, gold market watchers reckoned China had much more gold than that figure in its stockpiles. The bearish slant here is that with China being one of the world’s largest buyers of gold, the fact that official stocks are not near what was expected, further tarnishes gold’s centuries-old status as a safe-haven asset. Some are crediting this news as a major factor behind gold’s big losses Monday, but I have my doubts. Gold’s slide started Friday, in which prices on that day slipped to a five-year low and in the process produced serious near-term and longer-term technical damage, which suggested at that time more selling pressure was coming in the days, weeks or even months ahead. 
The rebound in the U.S. dollar index and down-trending crude oil prices the past couple weeks have also been bearish “outside market” forces working against the precious metals bulls, as well as most of the raw commodity sector.
The increased investor risk appetite in the market place recently—in which U.S. stock indexes are trading at or near record highs—is also pulling money away from competing asset classes, including safe-haven gold.
A mildly positive development for gold is the recent price plunge has likely ignited significantly increased demand for physical gold from the major importing nation of India. Indian jewelry shares on Indian stock exchanges were on the rise Monday.
In other news, European stock markets were higher Monday as Greece banks reopened and bailout funds are again being injected into the Greek economy. 
There were no major U.S. economic reports released Monday. 
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,104.60 versus the previous A.M. fix of $1,115.00.
Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range today. Serious near-term and longer-term technical damage has been inflicted in gold recently, to suggest still more downside price pressure in the days and weeks ahead—even though the gold market is now short-term oversold, technically, and due for a corrective upside bounce very soon. Gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at today’s high of $1,132.50. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at today’s low of $1,080.00. First resistance is seen at $1,120.00 and then at $1,125.00. First support is seen at $1,100.00 and then at $1,090.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0 
September silver futures prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh contract low today. Nearby silver futures hit an eight-month low. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at $15.25. Next support is seen at $14.62 and then at today’s low of $14.49. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
September N.Y. copper closed down 150 points at 248.15 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were again bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Copper bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 260.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 238.10 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 250.30 cents and then at 253.35 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 246.55 cents and then at 245.00 cents. Wyckoff's


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## alshangiti (5 أغسطس 2015)

saw slight gains fade by afternoon trading and prices finished the U.S. day session modestly lower Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index staged a rally from lower price levels seen earlier in the day, and that helped to put some downside price pressure on gold and silver. December Comex gold was last down $3.40 at $1,085.90 an ounce. September Comex silver was last down $0.035 at $14.48 an ounce.
The market place is quieter this week as the summertime doldrums have set in for European and North American traders.
In overnight news, producer prices in the Euro zone were down 0.1% in June, month-on-month, and down 2.2% year-on-year. This is another clue that world deflationary pressures have not gone away and in fact are creeping back into discussions on world economic health matters. The European Central Bank would like to see an annual inflation rate of up 2.0%. There was a U.S. personal consumption report on Monday that did give a bit more upbeat view on the U.S. inflation front, showing that consumer price inflation is creeping up a bit, but still below where the Federal Reserve wants it to be.
India’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged, it was announced Tuesday. No change in rates was expected for the third-largest economy in Asia. Australia’s central bank also held its interest rates steady, it was reported Tuesday.
While it’s a busy week for U.S. economic data, including Friday’s jobs report from the Labor Department, many traders and investors are focusing on family vacations in August, before the start of the new school year. European market activity slows way down during most of the month of August. The market place is likely to be generally quieter until after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in early September.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,090.65 versus the previous A.M. fix of $1,092.60.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed near mid-range. Gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, even though prices have been trading sideways for two weeks after hitting a 5.5-year low in late July. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,110.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,073.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,094.40 and then at $1,100.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,079.20 and then at $1,073.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0 
September silver futures prices closed near mid-range and at another contract low close today. Silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.625 and then at this week’s high of $14.765. Next support is seen at the July low of $14.33 and then at $14.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
September N.Y. copper closed up 25 points at 234.85 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering. Prices Monday hit a contract and six-year low. Copper bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 250.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 225.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 237.45 cents and then at 240.00 cents. First support is seen at Monday’s contract low of 232.15 cents and then at 230.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.


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## alshangiti (11 أغسطس 2015)

[h=1]A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Firmer, Hits 3-Week High as Chart Posture Improves[/h]By Jim Wyckoff
Tuesday August 11, 2015 08:35

*(Kitco News) -* Gold prices are modestly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading Tuesday, on some follow-through buying from Monday’s gains that pushed prices above what was psychological resistance at the $1,100.00 level. The near-term technical pictures for both gold and silver markets are starting to improve a bit, which is inviting some fresh speculative buying interest. December Comex gold was last up $4.50 at $1,108.50 an ounce. September Comex silver was last down $0.092 at $15.20 an ounce.
In a surprise overnight move, the Chinese government moved to devalue its currency, the yuan, by 1.9% on Tuesday. China has been implementing economic and monetary measures to resuscitate its flagging economy. The move by China shook the financial world, with Asian and European stock markets selling off. U.S. stock indexes were modestly lower in pre-opening trading. The gold market saw little reaction to the China news. There may have been some modest buying support moving into safe-haven gold after the Asian and European stock markets saw selling pressure. 
The weaker yuan will make imported goods into China—the world’s most populous country and the second-largest economy—more expensive. It will also make Chinese-produced goods cheaper on the world export market. The government devaluation of the yuan also will hurt China’s domestic companies and municipalities that have debts outside of the country. China is the world’s largest raw commodity importer, and those raw commodities have just become more expensive for China to import. The heretofore beaten-down raw commodity sector just got another dose of bad news.
The U.S. dollar index was little impacted on the China yuan devaluation. The index was trading near unchanged on the day. Meantime, the other key “outside market” saw crude oil prices lower and hovering near Monday’s four-month low on news that OPEC is pumping oil at the highest rate in three years, despite plummeting oil prices. It appears the cartel is trying to “break” the U.S. shale production industry that has changed the landscape of the world oil markets.
There was a downbeat economic report coming out of the European Union Tuesday, as the strongest economy in the union, Germany, reported its ZEW economic expectations index came in at 25.0 in August from 29.7 in July. A reading of 32.0 was expected. That news helped to pressure the Euro currency and support the U.S. dollar index.
Reports said India’s government in September will monetize gold owned by consumers. India is a major gold importer.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, preliminary productivity and costs, and monthly wholesale trade.


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## alshangiti (27 أغسطس 2015)

Turning the old adage on its head, equities indices across the globe are pulsing with new life and – dare we say? – optimism. Was the deep correctional dive and equally steep return of stocks really necessary? 
In hindsight it’s easy enough to answer a confident yes, although when everyone was losing money it didn’t seem so funny at the time. A couple of things have changed. One is somewhat important, the second is crucially important. 
First, let’s talk about China. China’s Shanghai indices – especially the composite we follow regularly – should have reached a technical bottom now. That is most likely what is accounting for the support level we are seeing developing around the 3,000 mark. Technicals follow fundamentals and those technical assessments had pretty clear news to follow, then gained a life of their own as bulls stepped back into the Asia games. 
The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and it has also, provocatively, cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio. Both moves stimulated buying in Shanghai. (The buying spilled over into Hong Kong and Tokyo.) Since the government in China functions as all things to all people, it is easy to comprehend the sense of relief in investors who now know the government is backing the equities markets it also created. (Some coincidence, eh?) 



But… Big Daddy can’t solve every problem, every time. We look for Shanghai’s sails to be trimmed again next week, then for it to stabilize and then dip in late September and early October. We don’t believe that the fundamentals in the broad Chinese economy are all that solid and we believe that, as manipulated as it is, the equities markets there are reflecting a substantial portion of the truth about the total output of the giant nation.
Part two: the United States injected a huge dose of optimism into the trading game today. William Dudley’s comments yesterday helped soothe troubled minds. The president of the New York Fed basically nixed the idea of a rate hike in September and possibly October. That leaves December. 
Even more importantly, U.S. durable goods were up again in July and the growth of the U.S. for Q2 was revised upward to 3.7%.
Those factors are important because while markets were going ape earlier this week, it was China – the tail – wagging the U.S. – the dog. Even if we accept China’s generally sketchy economic data, the U.S. is still twice as large as the second largest economy. The EU, when considered in aggregate, is yet again larger than the economy of the U.S. 
Put simply, China, no matter how drastic its volatility has been, should not be rocking the boat as much as it did. 
The U.S. dollar has been reflective of the strengthening of the U.S economy, moving up so other markets were affected. 



Gold’s small decline today is attributable entirely to the dollar’s strength, regular trading giving the yellow precious metal only a slight boost.
Oil was invulnerable to dollar strength, prices snapping back forcefully from 6-1/2 year lows. At 3:30 in New York, West Texas Intermediate is up more than 10%, an astounding figure. 
A number of factors were at work. Stockpile draw-downs were in play. There was a major disruption in a pipeline in Nigeria, squelching 180,000 barrels per day for the short term. (The pipeline break was so large and impactful that Shell declared a force majeure on its Bonny Light crude coming out of Africa.) 
We should be keeping an eye on European economic indicators now. If the U.S. (with Canada and Mexico) is crucial to the continued advancement of the world’s markets, Europe is practically as important. 
If we see the whole trans-North Atlantic economic complex to boom, a bigger and longer expansion could be in store regardless of what happens in Asia. 
For those that enjoy our Hawaii 6.0 Articles and would like a deeper analysis with detailed buy and sell recommendations, I invite you to try our daily video newsletter. Simply use the link at the bottom of this report to sign up for a free trial. 
Wishing you, as always, good trading,
*Gary Wagner*
thegoldforecast.com


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## alshangiti (19 سبتمبر 2015)

[h=1]The Fed Did The Right Thing Even If We Briefly Suffer[/h]Friday September 18, 2015 18:38
In case we didn’t have enough of the truth-or-consequences scenario that has been catapulted into markets since the Federal Reserve decided yesterday to stand pat on rates, we now have the right wing in the U.S. Congress again troubling its own house. (And everyone’s house with it.)
Yes, we are facing another revival of the great Washington hit musical, “Let’s Shutdown The Government.” This cannot come at a worse time and only demonstrates the irresponsibility of the Congress and its utter disregard for Americans of all economic statuses.
The Fed yesterday told the world that it is extremely wary of what is going on in China and that country’s effective re-peg of its currency. That pop devaluation of the yuan annoyed U.S. financial policymakers no end, especially given the rest of China’s opaqueness regarding its economy. We have to wonder if, concealed inside the decision not to raise rates, is a threat to China that, if it doesn’t start playing by universally accepted rules, it will no longer be welcome in the big stadium with the big league teams.
After hitting a three-week trough, the U.S. dollar recovered dramatically against the euro. We shudder to think how strong the dollar would have grown if the FOMC had bumped rates 25 basis points yesterday. The green back rose only modestly against the GB pound and fell against the Japanese yen.
At one point earlier today, gold was up $19.50 per ounce. It has since fallen back to being up now only $7.50 (as of 3PM in New York). The newly re-risen dollar put a nearly four-dollar dent into the overall price of the yellow precious metal. Silver is struggling to show any kind of gain and platinum and palladium are in the red for the day.
It is interesting how the herd mentality affects even the biggest players in the markets. Is there anyone who really was biting on the idea that the U.S. – not to mention the rest of the world – has been growing so spectacularly that it needed reining in? Let’s hope not.
Yet, reactions to the Fed news release and some comments made by Chairwoman Janet Yellen would have us think that some investors and traders were discovering indoor plumbing for the first time.



Of course, many, many analysts thought the Fed should not have raised rates, given the global economy’s stumbling. Fed funds futures betting before the meeting indicated only about a 20 to 30% chance that the Fed would hike yesterday.
"The people betting real money never expected the Fed to do anything yesterday," said Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout. "Ultimately, the Fed did the right thing by holding."
He noted there were some who thought "if the Fed did not hike, oh my goodness, what do they know, what's so bad in the economy that we don't know."
What don’t we know? Well, first, let’s say what we know.
The U.S. legislature, like the legislatures of many developed countries, has not embarked on any significant infrastructure funding. Second, money is still too tight for housing financing. The burden of scam colleges who have sucked youngish people into taking out nearly a trillion dollars in student loans is a drag on spending by Millennials.
That much we know.
What we don’t know is how bad off China is and how much their problems will degrade the economic growth of other developing countries or of “junior” second world nations.
The developed world has to solve its own specific problems through the legislative process. That is why a potential shutdown bothers us fundamentally.
China has to learn to be honest. Failing is not fun, naturally, but succeeding using lies and then being discovered? That’s humiliating and a good way to get your partners angry with you and distrustful of you during future involvements.
For those that would like a deeper analysis, I invite you to watch today’s Weekend Review in which I look at the potential that this long corrective period in gold might in fact be over. Simply use the link at the bottom of this article to view this special report.
Wishing you, as always, good trading,
*Gary Wagner*
thegoldforecast.com


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## alshangiti (21 سبتمبر 2015)

Gold prices saw a boost late last week following the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which saw the central bank leave U.S. interest rates unchanged. Despite the metal’s corrective pullback Monday, one research director says gold may be setting itself up for further gains post the Fed decision. December gold futures were last quoted down 0.5% at $1,132.10 an ounce. In an interview with Kitco News, Mike McGlone of ETF Securities said many bearish factors that have been weighing on the yellow metal may now have disappeared. 'Many of the bearish drivers for gold appear to have shifted or reached extremes including: the record setting stock market rally, overly optimistic Fed tightening expectations, the strong US dollar and the substantial decline in crude oil prices,' he said Monday afternoon. McGlone added that he is not surprised the Fed did not raise rates since the economy is not ready to withstand tightening. 'The primary reason for the Fed to raise rates is to suppress inflation and inflation expectations but the greater risks remain towards disinflation or deflation. Declining commodities, declining stock prices and the strong US dollar are deflationary forces,' he continued. According to the research director, it may also be good for gold investors to look closely at the U.S. stock markets' next moves because, based on historical data, the metal may be poised for some gains. 'When gold peaked in 2011, it was near $1,900/oz. while at the same time the S&P 500 bottomed near 1,200. Now in 2015, gold is near $1,200 and the S&P 500 is near 1,900. The levels basically transposed since 2011. The risk is that these markets continue to revert- potentially back to near 1,600,' he noted. Kitco News, September 21, 2015. (show less)


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## alshangiti (22 أكتوبر 2015)

[h=1]Gold Holds Steady Despite Big Rally in U.S. Dollar Index[/h]
Thursday October 22, 2015 13:34
*(Kitco News) -* Gold prices ended the U.S. day session near unchanged in a two-sided trade Thursday. The yellow metal showed resilience despite strong rallies in the U.S. dollar index and the U.S. stock market on this day. The near-term technical posture continues to slightly favor the gold market bulls. December Comex gold was last down $0.70 at $1,166.40 an ounce. December Comex silver was last up $0.12 at $15.83 an ounce.
Working in favor of the gold market bulls was a very dovish press conference delivered by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, following the regular monetary policy meeting of the ECB Thursday. While the ECB left its interest rates and monetary policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, Draghi strongly hinted the ECB could announce further monetary policy stimulus measures in December, in order to boost Euro zone economic growth and ward off price deflationary pressures. Draghi’s comments sunk the Euro currency, helped to rally the greenback, and boosted the U.S. and European stock markets.
The U.S. weekly jobless claims report came in about as expected Thursday but was upbeat, which did add some early selling pressure to the gold market and helped to lift the dollar index.
The China stock markets were mixed Thursday, with the Shanghai stock index recovering about half of Wednesday’s big losses, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was slightly lower on the day.
Technically, December gold futures prices closed near mid-range. The gold bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,200.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,150.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,171.80 and then $1,179.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,161.40 and then at $1,156.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5 
December silver futures prices closed nearer the session high. The silver market bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.25. First resistance is seen at $16.00 and then at last week’s high of $16.195. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $15.61 and then at $15.435. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December N.Y. copper closed up 195 points at 238.00 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 249.30 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 220.25 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 240.65 cents and then at the October high of 243.75 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 235.50 cents and then at this week’s low of 233.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


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## alshangiti (27 نوفمبر 2015)

Gold price drop to 1051 $ per oz.


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## alshangiti (12 ديسمبر 2015)

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[h=1]As Markets Await Fed Meeting, Analysts Question If Could Be Positive For Gold[/h]
Friday December 11, 2015 16:28
*(Kitco News) - *After almost a full year of anticipation, in less than a week the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since June 2009, and analysts think the move could have positive, albeit, short-term implications for the gold market.
For the second consecutive week, Comex February gold futures benefited from what analysts described as “weekend short covering;” however, there wasn’t enough momentum in the day for prices to end the week on a positive note. February gold settled the week at $1,075.70 an ounce, down almost 1% on the week.
Although gold managed to bounce off its lows, silver saw significant selling pressure, settling the week at $13.884 an ounce, down 4.8% on the week; this was silver lowest close since mid-2009.





Sentiment is mixed in the in the gold market ahead of what is being described as a historic Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday , according to the latest Kitco News Wall Street vs. Main Street Weekly Gold Survey
This week, 450 people participated in Kitco’s online survey. Of those respondents, 116 people, or 26%, are bullish on gold next week. At the same time, 299 people, or 66%, are bearish and 35, or 8%, are neutral on gold prices.
Out of 36 market experts contacted, 18 responded, of which nine, or 50%, said they expect to see higher prices next week. At the same time, five analysts, or 33%, expect to see lower prices, and three people, or 17%, are neutral.
Although next week will see the release of key U.S. economic data, most analysts agree that all the focus is on the central bank meeting. Fed Fund futures are pricing in a more than 80% chance that the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points; however, with expectations so high, many professionals are now focusing on the tone of the central bank’s monetary policy statement and of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s subsequent press conference.
Although recent comments from Yellen have been supportive of a rate hike, she also reiterated that the committee sees only a gradual rise in interest rates.
“There could be a relief rally after first rate hike, especially if it is only one quarter point and accompanied by soothing words about being cautious moving forward,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that he is expecting to see higher gold prices next week as the Fed meeting will create some profit taking in U.S. dollar bulls, which will be the biggest factor to drive the gold market in the short-term.
He added that he could see gold prices push above $1,100 an ounce.
Ken Morrison, editor of the newsletter Morrison on The Markets, also expects to see gold benefit from U.S. dollar weakness, but noted a lower price target at $1,095 an ounce.
Other analysts are optimistic on gold as negative sentiment continues to dominate the marketplace with speculative short positioning near record territory.
“All of these people are selling into the news but they will be covering their shorts after the announcement,” said George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. “There are a lot of nervous shorts in the marketplac


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## alshangiti (18 ديسمبر 2015)

with heightened expectations, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the Fed Funds rate to a range between 0.50% and 0.25%. 

This is the first time the U.S. central bank has hiked rates since June 2006; the move was almost universally expected by economists and market participants.
The historic rate hike comes as the committee appears to be more optimistic on the U.S. labor market, noting that continued improvement "confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year."
Gold pared its gains slightly after the Fed announcement. As of 2:10 p.m. EST, Comex February gold was up $5.6 for the day to $1,066.90 an ounce. Roughly five minutes ahead of the Fed decision, the contract was trading at $1,069.30 an ounce. 
March silver was up 32 cents to $14.09. This contract was trading at $14.12 ahead of time. 

The euro was at $1.09034 after trading at $1.09573 prior to the Fed announcement. 
The committee's economic outlook in the statement was relatively unchanged from October as the central bank sees the country's economic activity expanding at a "moderate pace."
"Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced," the statement said.
Although the Fed has embarked on a new rate-hike cycle, the committee has provided no further guidance on the next expected rate hike.
"The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data," the statement said.The central banks' interest rate expectations, are only slightly adjusted. The average among the committee sees the Fed-fund rate at 0.4% in 2015, unchanged from September. The committee is forecasting rates to jump to 1.4% also unchanged; however, in 2017, the committee expects to see rates at 2.4%, down from the previous estimates at 2.6% For 2018, the committee members expect an interest rate of 3.3%, down slightly from September’s forecast of 3.4%.
According to the central bank's economic outlook, it expects U.S. gross domestic product to expand on average 2.1%, unchanged from September's projection of 2.1% growth. For 2016, the central bank expects the economy to grow 2.4% up from the previous forecast of 2.3%. For 2017 is expected to see economic growth of 2.2%, unchanged from September. Looking farther out, for 2018, the central bank expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.0%, unchanged from the previous estimate.
The Fed also only slightly adjusted their outlook for U.S. unemployment rate, expecting to see it at to 5.0%, unchanged from September's. The committee’s forecasts for 2016 was lowered to 4.7%, compared to September's expectations of 4.8%; 2017 forecasts were also modified with the central bank expecting an unemployment rate of 4.7%, down from the previous forecast of 4.8. For 2018, the bank expects the unemployment rate to come in at 4.7%, down from the previous forecast of 4.8%.
The Fed is also relatively unchanged in its inflation outlook, with its forecast for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to come in at to 0.4% this year. There was only a slight adjustment to the 2016 forecast as the Fed sees inflation at 1.6%compared to the previous forecast of 1.7%. The Fed's 2017 outlook see inflation at 1.9%, unchanged from the previous forecast. The central bank is expecting inflation to hit 2.0% by 2018, unchanged from September.
Core inflation expectations, which strip out volatile food and energy prices, were slightly lower. For this year, the Fed expects core PCE to come in at 1.3%, down from the previous report of 1.4%. The 2016 estimates were only adjusted with a forecast of 1.6%, down from September’s forecast of 1.7%. The 2017 estimates was unchanged at 1.9%. The central bank is not expecting to hit its inflation target of 2.0% until 2018, unchanged from the previous outlook.
Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said that despite the "well telegraphed move." the Fed has managed to keep the outcome of future rate hikes in question, which is creating some uncertainty in the marketplace.
"At first blush, this isn’t quite as dovish an outcome as some might have expected given the unanimous vote and the lack of any downward move in the 2016 dot plot, but there’s enough doubt about the pace of future tightening to keep market responses muted for now," he said.


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## alshangiti (29 يناير 2016)

*(Kitco News) - *Although there has been early support from some Republican candidates to put the U.S. monetary policy back on the gold standard, many analysts say there isn’t the political will to make this a major issue during the 2016 election.
Monday, Iowans cast their vote in the first primary election to nominate their candidate to run for President late in the year. The Republican field is fairly wide with 12 candidates on the ticket in Iowa. Of the 12 candidates, the idea of moving back to a gold standard has been supported by five;, Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Rand Paul, Dr. Ben Carson, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.





Second place in the polls, Cruz has been the most vocal noting, during the October Republican presidential debate, that the Fed should be focused on “sound money and monetary stability, ideally tied to gold.”
In the same debate, Huckabee said that the dwindling middleclass is the result of the U.S Fed “manipulating” the dollar. “What we need to do is to make sure that they tie the monetary standard to something that makes sense, rather than to their own whims,” he said.
Christie raised concerns about the impact the Fed’s extraordinary money printing will have on the economy while Carson has noted that the value of the U.S. dollar is based on nothing.
Paul has been a long-time supporter of changing the current U.S. monetary policy. In an interview with Kitco News, in 2013, Paul said that he would like to establish a commission to study the possibility of establishing a new gold standard. Paul also introduced a bill to audit the Fed, which the senate rejected at the start of the year. His father, Rep. Ron Paul and also a former presidential candidate was a big advocate of returning to a gold standard. 
However, since the October debate, candidates have been fairly mum on adopting the controversial monetary policy as many economists have lambasted the suggestions. In December the L.A. Times published a commentary by Michael Hiltzik who said it was the worst idea in the debate.




Even some economists who support the idea of adopting a new gold standard don’t see it happening any time soon.
Keith Weiner, president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals said that a gold standard would help to create stable interest rates and financial system, which would promote economic growth. However he added that the political reality does not support a shift in the current monetary system, he said.
He explained that loose monetary policies is helping to promote higher equity markets, creating the illusion of wealth. Nobody in any political party wants to change the system “taking away the punch bowl,” Weiner said.
“I don’t think the gold standard will be a major election issue this year,” Weiner said. “But I don’t think the idea is going away. This will only become a bigger and bigger issue as people have started to see the long-term impact of aggressive money printing.”
Mark Skousen, author of Economics of a Pure Gold Standard, agreed he doesn’t expect the topic of a gold standard to be very popular this year as flexible monetary policies will be needed to fight deflationary forces in the economy. Skousen also questioned the stability of a gold standard as the market has become a lot more volatile.
“Commodity prices are inherently unstable,” he said. “They are subject to boom and bust cycles.”
He explained that gold’s historic role has been a hedge against rising inflation, but that isn’t a factor at the moment as inflation pressures remains weak as a result of lower energy prices.
Instead of implementing a gold standard, one idea that Skousen suggested was to have a gold target, not an actual gold standard. He explained that along with having an employment target and an inflation target, the Fed can promote currency stability with a gold target, adjusting their policy to trade within a band against gold or silver.
“If gold rising sharply against your currency then your monetary policy is too loose and if it’s collapsing then your monetary policy is too tight,” he said.




Although the idea of returning to a gold standard could ultimately be a pipedream, the topic is expected to crop up during the election campaign. Jeffrey Christian, managing director of New York- based CPM Group, said that he could see the proposal of reestablishing a gold standard make it into the Republican party’s official platform, similar to the proposal that was included in its 2012 platform. But he also said that doesn’t see the discussion going much further than being an idea on paper. 
Christian added that there are a lot of misconceptions about a gold standard and that history actually shows that there were major financial crisis during periods of established gold standards. He explained that the biggest problem with tying your monetary policy to a fixed asset is that it is not flexible enough to withstand periods of high volatility.
“There is this nostalgia for a gold standard that has never really existed,” he said. “History showed that you had this rigid monetary policy until it broke and then the government had to intervene.”
Christian added that when fixing monetary policy to a fixed asset, if the politicians get it wrong, it can create major deflation on one side or high inflation on the other.
Christian explained that former Fed Chair Allen Greenspan used to talk about gold in his Humphry Hawkins testimony before Congress but it was always in relation to the health of financial markets. 
“The only way gold can be a good barometer is if it is allowed to move freely in the marketplace. When you tie your monetary policy to a fixed asset it distorts the price.”
Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the World Gold Council, agreed with Christian that having a gold standard prevents central banks from acting more freely to support economic growth.
Artigas explained that a country backing its currency with gold helps to balance the “fiat risk.”
*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*
Follow Neils Christensen @neils_C


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## alshangiti (13 فبراير 2016)

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[h=1]Gold Is Tripped Up By Higher Oil and Stronger Equities[/h]Friday February 12, 2016 18:15
It’s easy to define the “what?” and the “how?” of today’s markets. Let’s start with the astounding leap in oil. The “why?” will be elusive? But do read on. The answer is below – far below. 
At 4:00 in New York West Texas Intermediate is up 10.45% while Brent North Sea is up 9.00%. The lightning strike is based upon continuing belief in the rumor instigated by the United Arab Emirates’ oil spokesperson that OPEC may have reached an agreement to cut production to shore up prices. 
Venezuela and Russia couldn’t talk Saudi Arabia into production changes. Let’s see if the UAE can. Their claim is that with production cuts – particularly in the U.S. – the market will rebalance. There are only two things wrong with this scenario. 
Supply in January fell by only 300K barrels per day but demand fell so drastically that a net surplus of over 1 million bpd was created above and beyond the 1.7 million per day excess already in place. 
Regardless if today’s booming rise is real or not, it affected everything in sight. 
In response to the gains in crude and consequent strength in U.S. and European equities, gold fell in late afternoon to $1239 per ounce. See Market Forecast and Proper Action for comments on the aftermath. Silver fell, although not as drastically. 
U.S. equities rose up to 1.80%. The struggling NASDAQ, which has some harsh analytical light glaring on it, rose about 1.60%. The question that will now confront trades is whether stocks are undervalued and therefore, is the strong and long “correction” over? We don’t know right now. 
Europe fared even better than the U.S. markets today. The London FTSE was up over 3.00% while the DAX and CAC, Germany and France, rose about 2.45%. 
The Nikkei was down almost 5.00% again today, falling drastically in the last six out of seven sessions. 
"The idea that central banks are now fully targeting the interest rate structure and putting a gun to domestic banks heads in a fight to stoke credit growth is in no way an equity friendly story," wrote Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG, a London spread-betting house. The Bank of Japan shocked the banking world with a turn late last month to negative interest rates. 
That may be good long term for Japanese borrowers from businesses to consumers, but spending stimulation, regardless of its form, takes a long while to work its way through the pipeline. 
U.S. bond yields, which stated out the day in the 1.60% range, moved up to a more comforting area, 1.73%. The rate rise indicated, as did gold’s stumble, of a shifting of money toward equity play and away from safe havens. 



The Commerce Department said today that retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services (the so-called core) increased 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.3% decline in December. Those naughty consumers waited for January after-Christmas sales to spend their money. 
This seems to have inspired thoughts that the Fed might indeed be willing to raise rates again sooner rather than later. That kind of thinking pushes up the U.S. dollar, which ended up strong against the whole foreign currency basket, but especially toward the yen. 
For those that enjoy our Hawaii 6.0 Articles and would like a deeper analysis focusing on the technical aspects of the market, I invite you to try our daily video newsletter. Simply use the link at the bottom of this report to sign up for a free trial.


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## alshangiti (25 فبراير 2016)

[h=1]Gold Sees Some Mild Profit-Taking, Chart Consolidation Following Recent Gains[/h]
Thursday February 25, 2016 08:25
*(Kitco News) -* Gold prices are steady to slightly lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, on some profit-taking pressure and chart consolidation following recent good gains. The gold bulls remain in good shape, on a near-term basis. April Comex gold was last down $1.20 at $1,238.00 an ounce. March Comex silver was last down $0.112 at $15.185 an ounce.
Most world stock markets were firmer Thursday, on corrective rebounds from selling pressure seen the past couple days. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings Thursday. World equities markets continue to hinge upon the daily price movements of crude oil. Nymex crude oil futures on Thursday are near steady and are just above $32.00 a barrel. A Wall Street Journal survey shows big investment banks are less confident that crude oil prices will recover soon. The banks forecast an average crude oil price in 2016 of $39.00 a barrel. That’s down $11 from the same survey taken in January.
The Chinese stock market was the exception and sold off sharply Thursday, on worries about the health of China’s economy, which is the world’s second-largest. The Shanghai stock index closed down 6.4% on the day. For whatever reason, other world equities markets decided to ignore the sharp downturn in the Chinese stock market. China is still a focal point for world traders and investors. This week the Group of 20 industrial nations meets, and China’s economic issues are likely to be a major topic. 
The Euro zone got another dose of dour economic news Thursday. The region’s consumer price index was reported down 1.4% in January, month-on-month, and was up just 0.3% year-on-year. While the figures were in line with forecasts, they underscore the deflationary price pressures that are presently gripping the European Union, and even the other major world economies. 
A news report out Thursday said traders and investors worldwide have significantly stepped up their purchases of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) and other gold-based derivatives. Gold futures prices have rallied around 17% so far in 2016. The report highlighted that in just a short period of time the general public has really changed its tune about investing in gold—from bearish to bullish. The “smart money” in the marketplace can read this as hinting the gold market prices may have run too far, too fast, and need some time to consolidate now.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the quarterly and monthly house price indexes, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. 


(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)
*Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 2.5* (Trader and investor market risk aversion is not elevated today.) 
*(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating *is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day*.* Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 5, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 5 being the most risk-averse (risk-off). 
Technically, April gold futures prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the February high of $1,263.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,170.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,243.30 and then at $1,250.00. First support is seen at $1,230.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,221.80. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5 
March silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing March futures prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $15.99 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $14.50. First resistance is at the overnight high of $15.33 and then at $15.57. Next support is seen at $15.00 and then at this week’s low of $14.945. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
*By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]*
Follow me on Twitter @jimwyckoff


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## alshangiti (1 أبريل 2016)

Gold traders will be keeping close tabs on the U.S. dollar and some important technical-chart levels next week to gauge where the yellow metal is headed next.
Gold futures rose during the first four days of this week, but then gave back much of the gains as the U.S. dollar rose Friday in the aftermath of a strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and Institute for Supply management survey on the manufacturing sector. Around 1:30 p.m. EDT, June gold was up $4.80, or 0.4%, for the week to $1,223.50 an ounce. May silver was down 13 cents, or 0.9%, to $15.07.




The euro, meanwhile, traded as far south as $1.13348 from $1.13803 late Thursday, although the single European currency was recovering Friday afternoon.
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, characterized gold’s weakness on the final day of the week as fund profit-taking after one of the best quarters in years. Spot gold rose 16% during the January-March period, before pulling back on the first day of April.
“The dollar has been the main driver, more than anything else,” said Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, but also adding that the metal at one point was down around the 50-day moving average. “Where we are going with (U.S. interest) rates here is anybody’s guess. It seems to me even though you had some positive economic news today, the odds of them (Fed policymakers) doing anything in June are still pretty low.”
Nonfarm payrolls rose 215,000 in March, the Labor Department reported Friday. The ISM’s headline reading rose to 51.8%, the first time in six months it was above the key 50% level that is the dividing line between contraction and expansion in the sector, after 49.5% in February.
The market will be monitoring economic data, any speeches by Federal Reserve officials, plus economic and other news in Europe to get a feel for where the dollar is heading, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Futures Group. Gold has a tendency to move inversely to the U.S. currency.
Friday’s jobs report led market participants to move forward the timing for the next Federal Reserve rate hike, Flynn said. However, the analyst said he envisions a rebound in the metal next week on ideas that the data will be “non-committal” – not strong enough to prompt Fed policymakers to hike in the immediate future.
“While it (the economic picture) is generally improving, it’s been very inconsistent as far as strength,” Flynn said. “The inconsistency will keep the Fed on guard about raising interest rates.”
Nedoss suggested the dollar got a “dead-cat” bounce, and he doubts the U.S. currency has hit its lowest levels. “The weekly charts don’t look so good,” he added.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum AG and author of the In Gold We Trust report, said he is not surprised that gold investors are taking profits following a slightly better-than-expected employment report.
“Gold was due for a selloff,” he said. “Right now the market is working off its overbought situation.”
However, Stoeferle said he remains optimistic on the yellow metal as the U.S. dollar looks top-heavy. “I think we can say that the U.S. dollar bull market is over and ultimately that is going to be good for gold,” he said.
The U.S. economic calendar will lighten up after a heavy schedule this week. Major reports next week will include factory orders on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s service-sector survey Tuesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday.
Equities could also play a role in gold’s moves, especially with first-quarter earnings reports approaching, Lusk said.
Meanwhile, observers said a couple of chart levels will be important for gold. Nedoss pointed out that after breaking the 20-day moving average last week, the June futures fell nearly to their 50-day moving average at one point Friday. This stands at $1,209.80; the session low was $1,210.30.
Lusk also commented that the early-week low of $1,207.70 an ounce, the weakest level since Feb. 22, will an important chart level for gold to hold.
“If not…we could probably go challenge $1,185 to $1,182 to the downside,” Lusk said. “It could fall that fast. A lot of this will be predicated on what the dollar is doing and what the stock market is doing.”
However, should gold fall too far, some “bottom fishing” may well occur from those who want to want to hold a long position, Nedoss added.
*By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; *[email protected]


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## alshangiti (6 مايو 2016)

تماسك الذهب أمس بعد تسجيل خسائر على مدى ثلاثة أيام لكنه ظل دون أعلى مستوى له في 15 شهرا مع صعود الدولار بدعم من آمال بأن ينتعش الاقتصاد الأمريكي بعد اقترابه من الركود في الربع الأول من العام.وبحسب "رويترز"، فقد أظهرت بيانات أمس أن قطاع الخدمات الأمريكي نما في نيسان (أبريل) مع تسارع الطلبيات الجديدة والتوظيف، لكن تقريرا آخر أظهر أن أصحاب الأعمال في القطاع الخاص الأمريكي وظفوا أقل عدد من العمال خلال ثلاثة أعوام.وزاد الذهب في المعاملات الفورية 0.1 في المائة إلى 1278.40 دولار للأوقية "الأونصة" وإن كان هذا السعر يقل 1.9 في المائة عن الذروة التي بلغها يوم الإثنين الماضى، بينما ارتفع الذهب في العقود الأمريكية الآجلة 0.5 في المائة إلى 1281.20 دولار للأوقية.وقفز الذهب لأعلى مستوياته خلال 15 شهرا إلى 1303.60 دولار للأوقية يوم الإثنين مع تراجع الدولار مقابل الين الياباني بعد إبقاء بنك اليابان المركزي على سياسته النقدية قبل أن يعاود الدولار انتعاشه.ومن بين المعادن النفيسة الأخرى ارتفعت الفضة في المعاملات الفورية 0.3 في المائة إلى 17.39 دولار للأوقية وتراجع البلاتين 0.2 في المائة إلى 1052.27 دولار للأوقية في حين زاد البلاديوم 0.1 في المائة إلى 601 دولار للأوقية.من جهة أخرى، أظهر تقرير نشره معهد الفضة أمس أن الطلب على المعدن النفيس ارتفع إلى مستوى قياسي العام الماضي حيث عوضت مشتريات العملات المعدنية والسبائك والمجوهرات والقطاعات الكهروضوئية تراجع الطلب الصناعي.وأظهر التقرير الذي جرى إعداده بالتعاون مع محللي فريق من "تومسون رويترز" أن إجمالي حجم الطلب قفز 3 في المائة إلى 1170.5 مليون أوقية "أونصة"، ما دفع العجز الفعلي في سوق الفضة إلى 129.8 مليون أوقية.وهبط الاستهلاك الصناعي الذي يمثل ما يزيد قليلا على نصف حجم الطلب على الفضة 4 في المائة إلى 588.7 مليون أوقية العام الماضي بسبب ضعف الاقتصاد العالمي، وارتفع الطلب على الفضة للاستخدام في التطبيقات الكهروضوئية مثل الألواح الشمسية 23 في المائة مدعوما بنمو قوي في الصين.وارتفع حجم الاستثمار في السبائك والعملات المعدنية ومنتجات مثل صناديق المؤشرات المدعومة بأصول مادية 16 في المائة مقتربا من مستوى قياسي مرتفع مع زيادة الطلب على العملات والسبائك إلى أعلى مستوى على الإطلاق عند 292.3 مليون أوقية.ووفقا للتقرير فإن هذا العام يمثل تحديا كبيرا لجميع السلع الأولية إلى جانب استمرار تباطؤ نمو الاقتصاد الصيني وارتفاع الدولار الأمريكي بما أدى إلى تخفيض متوسط السعر السنوي للفضة إلى 15.68 دولار للأوقية في 2015.وارتفع إنتاج المجوهرات المصنوعة من الفضة للعام الثالث على التوالي إلى مستوى قياسي بلغ 226.5 مليون أوقية مع زيادة الطلب من الهند وأمريكا الشمالية وتايلاند بما بدد أثر تراجع مشتريات الصين، كما زاد تصنيع المشغولات الفضية للعام الثالث ليصل إلى أعلى مستوى في عشر سنوات عند 62.9 مليون أوقية.إلى ذلك، تراجع الين لليوم الثالث على التوالي أمس لكنه ما زال مقتربا من أعلى مستوى له في 18 شهرا الذي سجله في الآونة الأخيرة مع عدم اقتناع المستثمرين بتلميح رئيس الوزراء الياباني إلى احتمال التدخل لخفض العملة المحلية.وارتفع الين وهو من الملاذات الآمنة التقليدية أكثر من 15 في المائة أمام الدولار خلال الأشهر الستة الأخيرة وسط اضطرابات في السوق في الوقت الذي لم تتحقق فيه توقعات المستثمرين بزيادة مطردة في أسعار الفائدة الأمريكية.وأشار رئيس الوزراء الياباني شينزو آبي إلى أن بلاده تراقب حركة الين وستتخذ إجراء إذا لزم الأمر، لكن اللاعبين في السوق يعتقدون بشكل عام أن احتمالات التدخل ضعيفة.وذكر تقرير من وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية أن التدخل الأحادي الجانب المستمر من قبل بعض الدول لإضعاف عملاتها قد يؤدي إلى تصنيف الدول التي تحقق فائضا تجاريا مرتفعا مثل اليابان على أنهم متلاعبون في أحدث إشارة على عدم ارتياح المسؤولين الأمريكيين لمزيد من الارتفاع في سعر الدولار.وبعد أن سجلت العملة الأمريكية أدنى مستوى لها في 18 شهرا عند 105.55 ين في وقت سابق من الأسبوع صعد الدولار 0.1 في المائة إلى 107.14 ين، وقال تان تك لينج المحلل الاستراتيجي لأسواق العملات لدى "يو.بي.إس" لإدارة الثروات في سنغافورة "إن احتمال حدوث تدخل في سعر العملة من جانب السلطات اليابانية سيرتفع على الأرجح إذا هبط الدولار إلى 100 ين". وارتفع الدولار الأسترالي 0.5 في المائة إلى 0.7499 دولار أمريكي بدعم من بيانات أسترالية متفائلة من بينها زيادة أكبر من المتوقع في مبيعات التجزئة في آذار (مارس)، وانخفض اليورو 0.1 إلى 1.1474 دولار أمريكي بما ساعد مؤشر العملة الأمريكية على الارتفاع 0.1 في المائة والابتعاد عن أدنى مستوى له في 16 شهرا الذي سجله في بداية الأسبوع.


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## alshangiti (21 يونيو 2016)

[h=1]Gold Solidly Lower As Risk Appetite Is Back; Outside Markets Also Bearish[/h]
Tuesday June 21, 2016 13:12
*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices closed the U.S. day session solidly lower Tuesday, as “risk-on” trader and investor attitudes are dominating the marketplace so far this week. More profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was also featured after prices past week hit a two-year high. August Comex gold was last down $20.40 an ounce at $1,271.70. July Comex silver was last down $0.214 at $17.30 an ounce.
The key “outside markets” on Tuesday saw the U.S. dollar index higher and Nymex crude oil prices weaker. That was a bearish daily posture for the precious metals and the raw commodity sector. 
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony on the economy monetary policy before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee produced no bombshell pronouncements. However, she did continue to imply the Fed is in no hurry to raise U.S. interest rates, mainly due to tepid U.S. economic growth and productivity prospects. Her remarks did not significantly move markets.
World stock markets were again mostly higher Tuesday and U.S. stock indexes were firmer in afternoon New York dealings. The better risk appetite in the marketplace this week is due to polls showing Thursday’s U.K. vote on whether that country stays in or leaves the European Union favor the “stay” camp. However, the polls are close, which is still causing a bit of uncertainty in the marketplace, and will continue to do so until Thursday’s vote. London bookmakers are saying the odds are about 75% the U.K. will stay in the EU. A U.K. vote to leave the EU would likely create high uncertainty and tensions in world stock, currency and financial markets. Thursday’s vote could be the most important world markets event of the summer.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports.
(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)


​​Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low today. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at $1,280.00 and then at $1,290.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,268.10 and then at $1,260.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0 


​​July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low today. The silver market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $18.06 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $17.66 and then at last week’s high of $17.88. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $17.105 and then at $17.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
July N.Y. copper closed up 225 points at 211.60 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today, on more short covering. The copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained some upside momentum. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 214.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 201.30 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 211.90 cents and then at 214.50 cents. First support is seen at 210.00 cents and then at today’s low of 207.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.


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## alshangiti (28 يونيو 2016)

*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly higher and down from the session highs Monday. There was some more safe-haven demand featured in gold as world markets are still tense and volatile after the Brexit “leave” vote late last week. Gold prices last Friday hit a 27-month high. However, there was some profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders Monday that took gold prices down from their daily highs. August Comex gold was last up $2.40 an ounce at $1,325.00. July Comex silver was last down $0.044 at $17.745 an ounce.
The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for the precious metals markets Monday, which also limited upside price action. The U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were solidly lower.
The world marketplace is still feeling the hangover effects of last Thursday’s U.K. vote to leave the European Union. The short-term and long-term effects of the leave vote are being hotly debated, but one thing is certain and that’s uncertainty. Traders and investors hate uncertainty and that’s what’s boosting safe-haven assets like gold.
European stock markets were solidly lower overnight, with the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average down over 200 points in U.S. afternoon trading. Asian stocks began to recover from the Brexit shock Monday as Chinese and Japanese stock markets posted overall gains. China’s central bank on Monday weakened its yuan currency against the U.S. dollar by the largest amount since last summer.
U.S. Treasury bond futures prices were up by over 3 full points, price-wise as safe-haven moves among traders and investors are in firmly in play. The British pound and Euro currency continued to get hammered Monday. As long as the currency markets are roiled, sellers in safe-haven assets, including gold, will be scarce.
(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)


​​​Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low. The gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,362.60. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,252.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at $1,318.90 and then at $1,308.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5 


​​​July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking today. Prices Friday hit a 1.5-year high. The silver market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $17.94 and then at the May high of $18.08. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.66 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
July N.Y. copper closed up 110 points at 212.15 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices Friday hit a seven-week high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 225.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 201.30 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 213.90 cents and then at 215.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 209.95 cents and then at 208.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
*By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (28 يونيو 2016)

dollar drooped against the British pound and the euro today as the currency market took a breather, engaging in some profit-taking after just two days of a brutal selloff in sterling and the euro sparked by the Brexit “yea” vote.
Nonetheless, the British pound is off 10% from the pre-vote level.
More importantly, the euro recovered a bit. It was last up 0.15% against the dollar at $1.1038 after hitting a 3-1/2-month low of $1.0909 on Friday.
However, the slightly weaker dollar was of no help to gold. Mostly on the back of regular trading, gold was down over $9.00 per ounce. Silver has managed for much of th day to stay in the green, rising about 5 cents per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude was up around 2.50% on the day, while Brent North Sea was up just a shade less. Some temporal issues arose, including a strike by oilfield workers in Norway and anticipation of another large draw down of U.S. stockpiles this week.



Those worries helped shore up an oil market that was in in freefall after the vote by Great Britain to exit the EU. Oil had been down by as much as 8.00% after the vote. So, as you can imagine, we saw quite a bit of bargain hunting that has pushed WTI up more than 2.25%.
There is a good deal of caution in the markets during this very modest risk-on day. A good indicator of it is that yields on the U.S. 10-year bond are basically flat lining, a status made even more telling because the yield already is so low.
So, the bond market seems to be calling for low rates even though that scarcely keeps bond purchases attractive as haven plays.
The migration away from the yen and back toward other currencies is another indicator that today is a risk on day, even if one of mild potency. Essentially what we are seeing is the swinging of an unpredictable pendulum as investors and traders try to determine what the actual damage – or lack thereof – from the Brexit will be.
For those who would like a deeper analysis, I invite you to try our daily video newsletter. Simply use the link at the bottom of this report to sign up for a free trial.
Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary Wagner
Thegoldforecast.com


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## alshangiti (10 سبتمبر 2016)

انخفضت أسعار الذهب خلال تعاملات اليوم الجمعة، رغم تراجع الدولار واسع النطاق أمام العملات الرئيسية. وأغلق المعدن النفيس على انخفاض بالأمس مع ارتفاع قيمة الدولار عقب صدور بيانات اقتصادية في الولايات المتحدة أظهرت تراجع طلبات إعانة البطالة بمقدار أربعة آلاف إلى 259 ألفاً خلال الأسبوع الماضي، وهو أدنى مستوى له خلال سبعة أسابيع.
وتراجع مؤشر الدولار -الذي يقيس أداءه أمام سلة من العملات الرئيسية- بنسبة 0.1% إلى 94.93 نقطة في تمام الساعة 11:09 صباحاً بتوقيت مكة المكرمة.
وانخفضت العقود الآجلة للذهب تسليم ديسمبر/ كانون الأول بنسبة 0.1% إلى 1339.7 دولار للأوقية، كما انخفضت عقود الفضة بنسبة 0.5% إلى 19.575 دولار للأوقية


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## alshangiti (11 سبتمبر 2016)

http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-09-09/Gold-Has-A-Date-With-The-Fed-On-Sept-21-Gold-Survey.html

Gold will likely trade sideways to lower until the September Federal Reserve meeting is out of the way, that seems to be the predominant sentiment among Wall Street experts based on the latest results of the Kitco News weekly Gold Survey.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



27%
Bearish



46%
Neutral27%

[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



66%
Bearish



20%
Neutral13%

[/FONT]​After hitting three-week highs, gold futures are weaker Friday as a stronger U.S. dollar continues to pressure the metal. The dollar is getting a boost from increased expectations of a rate hike this month, which markets are now pricing in between 24-27%. December Comex gold futures last traded at $1,337, down 0.35% on the day.
According to Kitco’s professional survey, more analyst expect prices to remain under pressure in the near-term while remaining optimistic for higher prices over the long haul. This week, 15 analysts and traders took part in the survey; about 46% of the experts expect prices to trek lower next week, while the remaining participants – split evenly at 27% – see higher or neutral prices. 
Meanwhile, sentiment on Main Street was a little more optimistic for the yellow metal. This week, 664 Main Street participants voted on the online survey, of which 438 voters, or 66%, are bullish. At the same time, 136 participants, 20%, expect lower prices while 87, or 13%, are neutral. 
“Fed fears will keep gold range bound as investors buy puts at $1,300 and calls at $1,350,” noted George Gero, managing director for RBC Wealth Management. “I think we are going to see this back and forth right up until Sept. 21.”
Ken Morrison, editor of Morrison on the Markets newsletter, focused his attention on the U.S. dollar when making his bearish call this week.
“The dollar and gold continue their love-hate relationship and with the dollar’s successful uptrend support, it doesn't bode well for Gold,” he said. “Open interest has risen recently, indicating new short-selling in gold may be gaining the upper hand.”
From a technical standpoint, some analysts said that gold should move lower after having tested the high end of its range this week. 
“Prices need to close over $1,358 today in order to hint a move to $1,392. Until then, I’m looking for continued testing of support,” said Ralph Preston of Heritage West Financial.
Morrison added that he could see the yellow metal retesting support at $1,320, or even $1,310 next week.
However, not all analysts were negative on the metal, with Henry To of CB Capital Partners noting that gold’s year-to-date rally isn’t over.
“[T]raders begin to realize that the Fed will likely wait until its December 14 meeting to implement its second rate hike for this cycle,” he said. “A Fed rate hike delay to December will give provide significant breathing room for Chinese policymakers as it will discourage the further Chinese FOREX outflows and provide impetus for the People’s Bank of China to ease monetary policy, likely early next year. More easing by the world’s central banks will support the price of gold in the long-run.”
*By Sarah Benali of Kitco News; *[email protected]


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## alshangiti (12 سبتمبر 2016)

[h=1]Trump : “No Doubt” Obama is Behind Low Rates[/h]Fed Chair Janet Yellen is being pressured to keep interest rates low by the White House -- this according to presidential nominee Donald Trump.






_*Photo by Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock.com*_​
"She’s obviously political and she is doing what [President Barack] Obama wants her to do,” Trump said in an interview on CNBC on Monday.
The reason the Fed is keeping rates low, Trump said, is to keep the market afloat, “Because as soon as [interest rates] go up, your stock market is going to go way down, he said, reminding viewers that he was correct on other forecasts including the Brexit vote.
“I believe it is a false market because money is essentially free,” Trump said. He noted that he does not invest in the stock market. If an increase were to occur, he said it would be, “a very, very small increase because they want to keep the market up so Obama goes out and let the new guy ... raise interest rates ... and watch what happens to the stock market when that happens."
Trump stressed, he has “no doubt” that President Obama is keeping the rates low. 
Those affected, are the people that “did it right," said Trump. “[T]hey saved their money, they cut down their mortgages, and now they are getting practically zero on the money they worked hard for, for forty years.”


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## alshangiti (13 سبتمبر 2016)

[h=1]s Gold Now The Elephant In The Room?[/h]By Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Tuesday September 13, 2016 14:15
*(Kitco News) -* I have been watching coverage of CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference and what is surprising to me is what investors aren’t talking about… gold.




A big theme, among some of the world’s biggest investors and fund managers at this year’s conference is that global monetary policy is creating uncertainty in financial markets. In this environment you would expect gold and other safe-haven assets would be the talk of the conference but very little has been said if anything about the yellow metal.

So I have to ask: where is the love for gold that we saw at the start of the year?

The yellow metal is by far one of the best performing assets this year with prices up almost 25%. Just look at the peformance today, Gold is relatively flat as prices remain above $1.320 an ounce, at the same time equities indexes are down more than 1%.
Despite gold's strong performance, I haven't seen anybody has come and say that this asset should be part of a balanced portfolio. This is a stark contrast to earlier in the year when gold was front and center at the Sohn Investment Conference, another major New York investor event. Stanley Druckenmiller made headlines through the financial sector after he recommended buying gold as the Federal Reserve appears to have no clear exit plan and that the equity market’s bull run has exhausted itself.
(A brief side-note: although Druckenmiller was bullish on gold in May, and held 2 million call options for GLD in the quarter, he completely excited his gold positions by the second quarter.)
Compared to May, the sentiment that the Federal Reserve is out of control is still very much alive today. Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management was probably the most succinct, saying this “is a very dangerous time,” as radical monetary policy has not led to sustainable economic growth.
Singer has been bullish on gold since early spring because of his view on global central bank monetary policies. And while he continued to bash central bank policy, he did not update his views on the yellow metal during the Delivering Alpha conference.
Singer isn’t alone in ignoring the yellow metal. Following his morning's panel on global opportunity, Mark Carhart, from Kepos Capital said in an interview with CNBC that investors should ditch the traditional 60-40 portfolio strategy. Instead, he said that investors should look at trend investing, which he described as buying currencies and commodities that are on the rise and short those that are falling -- depending on your outlook this could be a vote for or against gold as rally has recently stalled…
“What we see today is that there isn’t as much opportunity in traditional asset classes,” Carhart said on the traditional portfolio split. “You have interest rates at almost all-time lows... It’s really hard to build a portfolio of stocks and bonds that delivers the kind of returns that investors have been used to experiencing.
Of course some managers aren’t bearish. In the “Best Ideas” segment of the conference, Bill Miller, from LMM said that he is long the S&P 500 and short U.S. 10-year treasury notes.
Jim Chanos, managing partner at Kynikos Associations said that he sees investment potential in volatility, which could be a kind of endorsement of gold as it is seen as a hedge against volatility.
Out of all the comments made on CNBC today I think Chanos sums up the sentiment fairly well, declaring: “I have no idea what is going on.”
This emotion was a significant driver for gold at the start of the year but the question that is most on investors’ minds is whether this will continue to drive markets through the year-end.

*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (21 سبتمبر 2016)

*(Kitco News) -* Gold and silver price were trading solidly higher in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, following bullishly construed conclusions to Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings. December Comex gold was last up $20.80 an ounce at $1,338.70. December Comex silver was last up $0.628 at $19.90 an ounce.
The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended Wednesday afternoon with the Fed announcing no change in interest rates. The Fed said the U.S. economy continues on a growth path but business investment remains weak. Most market watchers did not think the Fed would raise interest rates today. Today’s FOMC statement was seen as favoring the dovish camp on monetary policy. As of this writing traders and investors were awaiting Fed chair Janet Yellen’s quarterly press conference held in conjunction with the FOMC meeting.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept its negative interest rates unchanged following its regular monetary policy meeting Wednesday. However, the BOJ said it is now targeting its 10-year government bond, wanting to keep its yield at zero, and it said it will continue buying as many government bonds as necessary (quantitative easing). The marketplace read this news as monetary-policy dovish, although not aggressive, and world stock and commodity markets were supported on the news. The marketplace had mixed ideas on whether the BOJ would keep policy unchanged or initiate new stimulus.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the precious metals Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices were higher on short covering after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. However, crude oil prices remain in a near-term downtrend. The other outside market on saw the U.S. dollar index trading lower, amid recent choppy trading action on the charts.
(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)


​​​Technically, December gold futures prices were near the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. The gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, as prices are not that far below this year’s high. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1,357.60. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,340.00 and then at $1,350.00. First support is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,318.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0


​​​December silver futures prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The silver market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained upside momentum today. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $20.235 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $18.46. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at $20.235. Next support is seen at $19.50 and then at $19.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
December N.Y. copper closed down 70 points at 215.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 225.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 206.40 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 217.25 cents and then at 220.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.1505 and then at this week’s low of 213.90 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
*By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (22 سبتمبر 2016)

[FONT=&quot]_China is the largest ultimate, paying customer for gold. "_[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] -[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Sergey Kashuba, Russian Union of Gold Producers[/FONT]​ 


Russia's largest bank to register on SGEX to sell gold
Second largest Russian bank to export 643,000 ounces in 2017
_Submitted by Soren K._
[h=3]Summary[/h]_Written by Vince __Lanci- __Sberbank CIB, Russia's largest bank, plans to register on the SGEX for purposes of selling Gold in China. VTB Capital, a division of Russia's second largest bank has already set up shop in China adn has been selling its Gold on the SGEX since April 2016._
[h=3]What is Mined in Russia, Stays in Russia[/h]




Russia was the second biggest Gold producer in 2015, mining 290 metric tons. Much of the metal stays in country. The Russian Government "encourages" domestic miners to keep its sales within Russia by using its banks to buy gold from them. We have no reason to doubt that the Russian Central Bank (RCB) uses its larger banks as intermediaries between itself and its mining industry, much like China does.
The Old Logistics-_ not unlike a mafia structure_


 Russian Miner produces Gold- _soldier does the job_
Miners are "encouraged" to sell locally to Russian Banks-_ if the soldier wants to keep "earning"_
Miner sells to Bank over his cost but under spot price- _soldier "kicks up" to his capo regime_
Banks sell to RCB at spot price- _Capo Regime kicks up to the Don_


_So why the interest in selling to China now? Because that is where the money is_
[h=3]Why are Russian Banks Now Selling Gold in China?[/h]Profits of course. That and some permission from the RCB to do so. The mark up from bank to end user is why Russia's banks are looking for access to Chinese demand. Rising incomes and few investment options in China are driving demand for gold jewelry, bars and coins in China. In July, SGEX volumes almost doubled from a year earlier to 1.7 trillion yuan ($255 billion).
The New Logistics- _Capo Regimes expand territory with the Don's permission_


Russian Miner produces Gold
Miners encouraged to sell to Russian Banks-_ "benefits" include being permitted to operate with unbroken legs_
Banks buy from the Miner at spot price- _good for miner, good for bank and nobody gets hurt_
Banks sell to Russian Central Bank- _at little to no mark up and no-one gets hurt ,da?_
Banks ask RCB permission to allocate some Bullion for sale to China- _Da, but you give us piece of profits, no?_
Russian Banks set up shop on the SGEX
Banks sell their Gold to China clients who pay higher prices


Russia Buys 700,000 Ounces of Gold in August
[h=3]The Russian Players[/h]Sberbank PJSC, largest Russian Bank


Will be selling Gold in China thru its Sberbank CIB division on SGEX
Otkritie Bank- second largest Russian Bank (privately held)- on SGEX


Sells Gold on SGEX as of August 2016
projects 5 tonnes sold this year in China
VTB Capital- a unit of Russia's 2nd largest bank- on SGEX


Sells gold on SGEX as of April 2016
Owns shares in Otkritie
projects sales of 20 metric tons in China for 2017
projects 100 tonnes in 2018
[h=3]Russian Banks' Gold Price Outlook[/h]




As long as China continues to encourage its citizenry to accumulate Gold in addition to the PBOC buying there will be a premium to spot paid in China for purchasing, storage and portfolio management. As the quote goes:
_[FONT=&quot] "China Owns Gold Through its People"[/FONT]_​But not officially until the PBOC confiscates it


“We believe that the macroeconomic environment will stay supportive for gold and expect the metal to trade above $1,250-$1,300 per ounce in the mid-term with risks skewed to the upside," Sberbank CIB said
“Any drop below $1,300 per ounce should be viewed as a buying opportunity,”VTB Capital


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## alshangiti (22 سبتمبر 2016)

[h=2]Technicals: $1380 and $20.36 for Starters[/h]







http://www.marketslant.com/sites/default/files/field/image/silver922.png




by Soren K.
22/09/2016 8:31 AM


5K
 0
http://www.marketslant.com/articles...e=LmrA_6A4bAv77WUT8y0XRy4zIzMdPUa7HG0P6T1hcmw 4



Tags:gold, silver.​


[FONT=&quot]4
Share​​ 

http://www.marketslant.com/articles/technicals-1380-and-2036-radar# 
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/technicals-1380-and-2036-radar# 
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/technicals-1380-and-2036-radar# 
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/technicals-1380-and-2036-radar# 
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/technicals-1380-and-2036-radar# 




[h=2]Why Precious Metals Are in a Bull Market[/h]_submitted by Soren K._
[h=3]Chutes and Ladders[/h]_Written by Vince __Lanci_
Remember when Gold and Silver used to take the stairs up, only to free-fall in the elevator down? They would work higher over a 5 day period and give it all back in a day? Well look at the charts now. Precious Metals don't work that way anymore. There are still washouts to be sure. But there are just as many, if not more _wash-ups_.That is because the market is fundamentally telling you something is different. The shorts are the ones playing Chutes and Ladders now.
[h=3][/h][h=3]Pricing Demand[/h]When a market is prone to work higher and swoon lower, we observe and say it is "pricing supply". The market creeps higher, cautiously getting optimistic about itself. But supply looms above. And when it hits that wall of selling, it runs away. Sellers could be producers, Bullion Banks with volume on their books to go, or Central Banks puking their souls for paper money (I'm talking to you Great Britain). It just mattered that they were big and immovable. The sellers can just be limit orders, but the longs trip over themselves panicking for the exits. Smart (_ AKA- spoofing, manipulative, front-running, flow-trading, unethical, customer last_) Banks then start smacking bids because they had a wall of selling behind them That is when a market is pricing supply
But now all you have to do is look at the charts to see that the market is pricing demand. Put another way; There is demand lurking below the market patiently waiting for a selloff to get filled. It could be China, Russia, the US, Funds. It doesn't matter. But patient large buyers are underpinning the market now.

[h=3]Event Driven Spikes[/h]When a bullish event happens, some of those lurking buyers go to market and some raise their bids.This forces other less patient players to act now. The shorts don't have the luxury they used to have. Remember when bullish news would come out and Gold used to yawn? Now it reacts. Lurking bidders raise their bids, funds buy, and shorts must cover.

[h=3]The Best Part of Yesterday's Rally[/h]Look at the open interest. What fund was long? And we love that. Keep the hot-money traders away. We need no froth. That tells us this is more likely the beginning of a bigger rally. In fact we believe from a cursory look that shorts were covering. And we have made it no secret we were buying repeatedly and getting stopped out playing the Tudor game. So we missed this. I guess that makes US the hot money we hate! But we bought some physical silver in coins which we prefer now in light of our own opinion on JPM's long term play.
[h=3][/h][h=3]One More Thing[/h]Note Silver has pierced its descending trend line of resistance, but gold has a ways to go yet. That is a gift in our opinion. Silver has more volatility, and therefore will respect technical numbers faster than Gold. Silver's faster behavior is a tool for assessing Gold's. Play it any way you like:


Silver as Gold Buy Indicator Gold target is the descending trendline as long as Silver stays above its line
Gold as Silver Sell IndicatorSilver is a sale if Gold reachesits trendline and starts to slide
 
[h=2]Silver[/h]




DEC SILVER Resist: 2011, 20365, 2100+/- ST Trend: Sdwys/Up
(19915) Supprt: 1952-1949, 19405* Obj: 20365 TRP: 1940.5
Comment: Yesterday’s outside bull reversal marks a short term turnaround out of the recent selloff and
alerts for a larger emerging bull climb, initially to 20365 and potential to drive near 2100. Be prepared for
minor consolidation inside the upper half of yesterday’s rally. Only a close under 19405* voids the upturn
[h=2]Gold[/h]




DEC GOLD Resist: 134340, 1350-1352 ST Trend: Sdwys/Up
(133900) Supprt: 133060, 132800, 132250* Obj: 135050 TRP: 1322.50
Comment: Yesterday’s outside bull reversal marks a short term turnaround out of the recent selloff and
alerts for a larger emerging bull climb, initially to 135050 and potential to drive to 1370-1380. Be prepared
for minor consolidation inside the upper half of yesterday’s rally. Only a close under 132250* voids the
upturn








[/FONT]


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## alshangiti (30 سبتمبر 2016)

A Lehman-style meltdown for Deutsche Bank or a significantly weaker labor market is needed to boost gold out of its three-month range next week, according to some analyst.




Despite hitting a new two-year high at the start of the quarter, the gold market is headed to a quarterly loss Friday, dropping 0.7% since July, its first three-month loss since the fourth quarter of last year. December Comex gold futures last traded at $1,320.40 an ounce, down 0.42% on the day.
However, silver has managed to keep its quarter win-streak alive as December silver futures are ending the quarter with a 2.5% gain. December silver futures last traded at $19.25 an ounce, up 0.32% on the day.
While analysts are expecting gold to continue to hold onto most of its current 24% gains seen since the start of the year, a new catalyst is needed to push prices higher, say analysts.
Heading into next week, analysts add that all eyes will be on Europe as markets digest the growing uncertainty around Germany’s Deutsche Bank and its potential to be the next Lehman Brothers.
“Right now, I think that markets are expecting to see a resolution to Deutsche Bank’s issues,” said Colin Cieszynski, senior market analyst at CMC Markets Canada. “If the market was concerned that this would spiral out of control, you would see gold prices much higher.”
Phillip Streible, senior market analyst at RJO Futures, said that he is expecting to see gold prices fall in the near-term as the market is unable to attract new buyers. He explained that the fact that gold is not higher, with renewed pressure in equity markets, is a sign of weakness.
“If gold can’t go higher on bad equity market news, then it has to go lower,” he said. “Gold has to dip below $1,300 an ounce to attract new buyers.”
*It’s All About That... Employment Report*
The U.S. economic data calendar picks up next week with the focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for September.
Mike Dragosits, senior commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that the data has to be well outside of the consensus to push gold out of its current range. Consensus estimates are calling for a print of 171,000 new jobs for September.
“Something below 100,000 is needed to push gold past $1,250 and something over 250,000 will be needed to push gold below $1,300,” he said.
However, other analysts said that this month’s jobs report might not have a major impact on gold, even if there is a big miss.
“The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates until December. There are three employment reports between now and then,” said Cieszynski. “This will be the first one so that will lessen its impact on markets slightly.”
Barry Potekin, vice-president of future accounts at RMB Group, agreed that one employment report isn’t going to have an impact on the current sentiment in the marketplace. “Even if it’s weaker, it’s just one report. Now, if you get weakness in three reports, then you have a problem.”
*Trade of the Week - Look Long Term*
Potekin said that he prefers to look at gold from a long-term perspective and warned investors to stay away from the short-term volatility.
He added that global zero and real negative interest rates will continue to make gold an attractive safe-haven investment.
“There is an uptrend underpinning gold and that is not going to change anytime soon,” he said.
Potekin told Kitco News that he likes using long-term options to capture gold’s gains. He said that he is buying June 2017 $1,500 calls and selling June 2017 $1,650 calls.
He added that the fee for the spread is $1,700, which is the most an investor can lose.
From a risk-reward standpoint, if the trade works out, investors can look at making $13,000 minus any trading fees.
“If prices don’t make it, then you just let the options expire worthless,” he said.
For silver, Potekin said he is buying July 2017 $23 calls and selling July 2017 $25 calls. He noted that the options cost $1,500 but investors have the potential to make $8,500.
*Level To Watch Next Week*
For short-term traders, analysts said that investors should watch gold’s current range between $1,300 and $1,350.
Dragosits said that he doesn’t see much selling pressure below $1,300 an ounce as growing uncertainty is prompting funds to stick with their gold bets.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in recent commentary that he thinks gold needs to have a deeper test of its support levels and warned that a push below $1,305 could lead to a deeper correction.
Streible said that he expects $1,291 an ounce to hold as long-term support. He also warned that a drop below $1,275 would signal an end to gold’s bull run and investors should “throw in the towel.”
However, not all analysts are bearish with Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG, noting that gold appears to be holding support above initial support at $1,320 and rising risk aversion in the marketplace could drive prices to $1,340, and then potentially to $1,360.
*The Final Say*
Although the spotlight will be on Friday’s jobs report. Markets will receive the ISM manufacturing PMI report Monday, and non-manufacturing PMI data Wednesday.
The week will also be capped off with more central bank talk: Fed Governor Stanley Fischer, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Fed Governor Lael Brainard will also speak at events Friday.

*By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (6 أكتوبر 2016)

[h=1]An Insider’s Take on Gold Manipulation Case[/h]
Thursday October 06, 2016 14:05
*(Kitco News) -* This week, a New York judge said there is validity behind gold market manipulation in a class action lawsuit involving five banks accused of manipulating gold prices through the twice-daily London Fix.




The London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it, researchers say.
Kitco News’ obtained the court document which contained the opinions of presiding Judge Valerie Caproni of the US District Court. Judge Caproni said in her opinion that the plaintiffs "plausibly allege that each of the Fixing Banks acted recklessly in creating artificial price dynamics in the gold markets around the PM Fixing."
However, the Judge dismissed all claims against global firm UBS, leaving The Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Societe Generale still facing manipulation allegations.
Kitco News reached out to Rosa Abrantes-Metz, the key economist who provided the evidence of collusion and manipulation. 
Here’s the Q & A:
*Kitco :* What does the case highlight?
*Abrantes-Metz:* “Prices move primarily downwards leading up to and during the London Gold Fixing, and they do so too often. This is part of the evidence I prepared which is consistent with artificially low prices, which allegedly benefit of defendants.”
*Kitco :* Could it be a game changer? How?
*Abrantes-Metz*: “If proven that defendants colluded to manipulate the market for at least one decade, then potentially anyone trading gold could have been affected. Many more complaints may be filed around the world and of course, an additional sense of mistrust in the system, on top of all of the other known rigging of key benchmarks. Therefore, the importance of this decision extends beyond current plaintiffs.”
*Kitco *: How much longer until a verdict?
*Abrantes-Metz:* It usually still takes several years since the complaint defeats the motion to dismiss.
*Kitco :* What do you say to people who say not all manipulation is bad but part of the game
*Abrantes-Metz:* “Manipulation is not only bad, it is also illegal. Yes, it is often part of the game, a rigged part of the game. For over a decade that I have been developing empirical screens (as in this gold case), in order to assist in detecting this type of rigging. I am a believer in markets, but also know well (given my work across many markets) that they can be and have been abused.
After more than 100-years of its auction-based system, the London Gold Fix ended in March of 2015 as the allegations of market manipulation started to grow.
*By Daniela Cambone [email protected]* and *Neils Christensen of Kitco News;**[email protected]*


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## alshangiti (3 نوفمبر 2016)

[h=1]Gold Modestly Lower On Profit Taking, But Well Up From Daily Lows[/h]
Thursday November 03, 2016 13:51
*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices ended the U.S. day session just modestly lower Thursday and well up from the sharp losses seen in early trading. Profit-taking was featured. The early stronger selling pressure in gold and silver markets saw traders very willing to buy the dips, as the near-term technical postures for both metals has turned significantly more bullish this week. December Comex gold was last down $5.50 an ounce at $1,302.70. December Comex silver was last down $0.328 at $18.365 an ounce.
Gold also saw some early selling tied to a U.K. court that ruled the government would need a vote from U.K. Parliament to officially start to leave the European Union (Brexit). The ruling could delay the process of the U.K. pulling out of the EU. The news could delay the Brexit process and may push the window of uncertainty on the matter down the road.
Some weaker U.S. economic data Thursday also aided the precious metals market bulls, as it fell into the camp of the monetary policy doves. The October ISM non-manufacturing report came in at 54.8 versus 57.1 in September. A reading of 56.0 was expected in October.
Slumping crude oil prices recently are lending selling pressure to world stock markets and it’s also a bearish element for the raw commodity sector, including the metals. Nymex crude oil prices have dropped to a five-week low of $44.37 Thursday. Prices have shed over $8.00 a barrel since mid-October. The other key outside market saw the U.S. dollar index trading weaker Thursday. The greenback has seen keener selling interest this week after hitting an 8.5-month high last week.
The approaching U.S. presidential election is garnering more and more attention from the world marketplace. Polls show Donald Trump has made good gains against Hillary Clinton the past week. The specter of a U.S. President Trump is causing uneasiness in world markets. That has benefitted the safe-haven gold market but has put some downside pressure on world equity markets.
Traders and investors are awaiting what is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month: Friday’s employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at up 170,000 in October.
(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)


​​Technically, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high and saw profit taking after hitting a four-week high on Wednesday. The gold bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,325.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,262.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,309.30 and then at $1,318.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,286.20 and then at $1,280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5


​​December silver futures prices closed near mid-range and saw profit-taking after hitting a four-week high on Wednesday. The silver market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $18.75 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at this week’s low of $17.755. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December N.Y. copper closed up 180 points at 224.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another three-month high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 228.60 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 212.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 225.35 cents and then at 227.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 221.80 cents and then at 218.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
*By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; [email protected]*


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## alshangiti (8 ديسمبر 2016)




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## alshangiti (5 يناير 2017)

[h=1]Gold Extends Early Gains As U.S. Dollar Index Sharply Lower[/h]
Thursday January 05, 2017 10:51


​​*(Kitco News) - *Gold prices are solidly higher, at a four-week high, and near the daily highs in late-morning action Thursday. The U.S. dollar index is trading sharply lower and near its session low, which has prompted more buying interest in the precious metals markets. Higher crude oil prices are also a bullish "outside market" force working in favor of the precious metals market bulls. February gold was last up $17.00 an ounce at $1,182.20.


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## alshangiti (5 يناير 2017)

Gold prices pushed higher Wednesday hitting an almost four-week high thanks to a weaker dollar and increased physical demand from major consumers China and India.
The spot price for the precious metal rose to its highest since Dec. 9 at $1,167.83 an ounce and was recently up 0.2% at $1,164.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for its second straight day of gains. US gold futures climbed $3.80 to $1,165.90 an ounce.
Analysts expect that uncertainties, such as Donald Trump’s first few months as President of the US and upcoming elections in some European countries will boost gold prices as investors seek safe-havens.The price recovery comes ahead of a 2pm ET release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy-setting meeting, which could deliver more hints on what to expect this year in terms of monetary policy. At the meeting, officials said they would hike interest rates by a further 0.75 percentage point over the course of 2017.
Higher interest rates are not good for gold, as the precious metal doesn’t bear interest, unlike other investment instruments.
Looking ahead, analysts including Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, believe the approaching Chinese New Year holiday celebration will likely result in some physical restocking of metal in both China and India, the world’s top consumers.
"Physical demand from China and India is quite strong at the moment," NAB analyst Vyanne Lai told _Reuters_ Wednesday. "With the upcoming Chinese New Year there is a seasonally strong period for jewellery and in India the shortage of cash has prompted some safe-haven buying from Indian consumers as a source of wealth."
Experts also expect that uncertainties, such as Donald Trump’s first few months as President of the US and upcoming elections in some European countries such as France and Germany, could boost gold prices as investors seek safe-havens.


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## alshangiti (11 يناير 2017)

[h=1]rump separating from business to avoid conflict concerns: lawyer[/h]By Reuters
Wednesday January 11, 2017 12:19
President-elect Donald Trump is separating himself from his far-flung global business empire by transferring all assets into a trust and putting his two sons in charge, a Trump lawyer said on Wednesday.
Along with plans to hire an ethics adviser, Trump is taking the steps to avoid inevitable questions about a potential conflict of interest between his businesses and the office of the presidency, although his lawyer insisted he was not required to take them.
Republican Trump, who is to be sworn in on Jan. 20, has been under pressure to take these steps before he moves into the White House.
Trump operates a variety of golf resorts and hotels around the world. The lawyer, who spoke to a small group of reporters on condition of anonymity, said all profits generated at Trump's hotels by foreign governments will be donated to the U.S. Treasury.
Trump is to resign from all positions he holds with Trump Organization entities, and his daughter, Ivanka, is to have no further involvement with management authority in the group.
Ivanka Trump is the wife of Jared Kushner, who Trump has appointed to a senior advisory role in the White House.
The Trump Organization will not enter any new deals while Trump is president, according to the lawyer.
Since Trump sold all his stocks last year, the Trump trust is to hold only liquid assets such as cash and business operating assets, the lawyer said.
Many ethics experts had urged Trump to completely divest or set up a blind trust for his assets. The lawyer said Trump opted against these steps because it was not a realistic possibility.
Trump was aided in setting up the trust by lawyer Fred Fielding, a former White House counsel to Republican presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
Interviews are being conducted in the search for an ethics adviser for the trust, the lawyer said.
"The written approval of the ethics adviser will be required for new deals, actions and transactions that could potentially raise ethics or conflict of interests concerns," the lawyer said.
Trump has terminated all pending business deals to clear the way for becoming president. His access to information about his businesses will be sharply limited, the lawyer said.
The moratorium on new deals does not apply to contracts that are entered into by the Trump Organization and its affiliates in the ordinary course of business.
Remaining debt will stay in place and will be dealt with during the ordinary course of business, the lawyer said.
(Reporting By Steve Holland; editing by Anna Driver and Grant McCool)


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## alshangiti (13 يناير 2017)

Wall Street and Main Street alike look for gold to continue its recent rally next week, according to a pair of Kitco News gold surveys.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



61%
Bearish



33%
Neutral6%

[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



67%
Bearish



24%
Neutral9%

[/FONT]​Analysts and traders who envision further strength cite political uncertainty, with Donald Trump to be inaugurated as U.S. president next week. Those who see gold weakness cite profit-taking potential and a possible bounce in the U.S. dollar after the latter’s recent correction lower.
Eighteen traders and analysts took part in a weekly Wall Street survey. Eleven voters, or 61%, see gold prices rising by next Friday. Six, or 33%, see a retreat in prices, while one voter looks for a range-bound market.
Meanwhile, 495 participants took part in the Main Street survey. A total of 333 participants, or 67%, called for gold to rise, while 117, or 24%, saw lower prices. The remaining 45 voters, or 9%, were neutral.
In last Friday’s survey, 75% of Wall Street voters and 54% of Main Street participants called for gold to rise this week. As of 11:13 a.m. EST, they were right, as Comex February gold was up $21.50, or 1.8%, for the week to $1,194.90 an ounce.
Going back to mid-May when this reporter started handling the Kitco News survey, Wall Street forecast correctly 21 times and was wrong 12 times, a winning percentage of 64%. Main Street had a 20-13 mark during this period for 61%.
“I am bullish on gold for next week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market analyst in Canada for CMC Markets. “Political risk is back! The street has been overcomplacent about Trump but this week’s press conference showed that the economy is one of many priorities. With Inauguration Day coming on Friday, the rubber hits the road and the street is likely to get a reminder that politics doesn't move at the speed of the market.”
He characterizes the U.S. dollar as looking “vulnerable.” Additionally, Brexit “is going to be front and center” again in the next week, with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May due to deliver a speech Tuesday on her country’s plans to exit from European Union, Cieszynski added.
“This little dip (in gold) we have off of the highs is going to be bought,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading. “There is way too much uncertainty going forward….That will cause some uneasiness.”
Henry To, analyst at CB Capital Partners, also looks for gold to rise next week.
“Net speculative positioning in gold futures was most recently down eight weeks in a row, and was at its lowest level since January 2016, suggesting an extremely oversold positioning,” To said. “Moreover, U.S. wage growth is now at a cyclical high and is continuing to surprise on the upside, suggesting higher inflationary pressures, which should support gold prices in the short run.”
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, figures gold can keep rallying since the market has already factored in Federal Reserve tightening this year. This previously hurt the precious metal during the latter part of 2016.
“A modest pullback next week after the recent run-up would be in order, but fundamentally we remain bullish,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The factors that hurt gold in the second half of last year—rising rates, a strong dollar, optimism on a Trump-induced economic recovery--have played out. The underlying factors of easy money around the world, rising demand from China and India, and global instability will come to the fore again.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, anticipates a profit-taking pullback next week. He pointed out that open interest and recent price action suggests some 15,000 new longs in futures contracts but without a commensurate increase in exchange-traded-fund holdings. There is a chance some of the “weaker” hands in the futures market may opt to exit their new long positions, he said.
“We’ve come so far, so fast,” Grady said. February gold has rallied roughly $65 since the mid-December low. He later added, “With any strength in the dollar, you’re going to see some lower (gold) prices.” 

Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, figures higher inflation could offer some support for gold, but said this also means continued potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes that would boost the dollar and hurt gold. The area around $1,200 is also offering some resistance, he added. Gold poked above this level this week but has not been able to generate further upside momentum.
“I think you’ll see the dollar bounce, which will put a little pressure on the metals,” Haberkorn said.
*By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; *[email protected]


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## alshangiti (27 يناير 2017)

[h=1]Gold Could Hit 2015 Lows, But This Analyst Is Not Worried[/h]
Friday January 27, 2017 11:31
*(Kitco News) -* One analyst is not too worried about short-term weakness in the gold market, given that it has potential to shine in the latter part of the year.




“We are bearish gold in the short term. We forecast an average of $1,170 this quarter and $1,140 in Q2. A test of the late 2015 low around $1,046 is possible,” noted Tom Kendall, head of precious metals strategy for ICBC Standard Bank, in a report Friday.
The reasons behind this bearish near-term outlook lies in a few factors: President Trump’s fiscal policies, a more hawkish Federal Reserve than the market anticipates and weaker physical demand from key gold-consuming nations like China and India.
“But we do expect a recovery in gold to emerge in H2 as attention turns from what the Trump administration wants to do, to what it can do and, more importantly, how it will all be paid for,” he wrote.
“[W]e think the dollar will probably peak around mid-year. That plus the issues around deficit spending (a subject on which there is no Republican consensus) will lay the foundations for a more sustainable recovery in gold,” he explained.
For silver, Kendall said he’s a little more optimistic. “[W]e forecast the gold: silver ratio to fall from around 71 presently to the mid-to-low 60s by year-end.”
“More fundamentally, we think growth in industrial demand for silver should outpace improving global GDP growth, led by use of silver in electronics (notably in automotive-related applications) and further large investment in solar energy generation,” he added.
Gold is setting itself up for its first weekly negative close in five weeks with February Comex futures last trading at $1,187.90 an ounce, down 0.17% on the day. Meanwhile, silver is holding up Friday with March futures last at $17.18 an ounce, up almost 2% on the day.
“In 2016, gold had a strong first half followed by a sharp retracement in H2; we expect that pattern to be reversed this year, though in some respects it is like trying to grab a tiger by the tail… There’s no telling when the Trump Twitter account may turn around and bite us.”
*By Sarah Benali of Kitco News; *[email protected]


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## alshangiti (18 فبراير 2017)

[h=1]Trump, Stock Reversal & Uncertainty Make For Higher Gold - Weekly Gold Survey[/h]By Sarah Benali of Kitco News
Friday February 17, 2017 14:04




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



59%
Bearish



24%
Neutral17%

[FONT=&quot]VS​
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



64%
Bearish



23%
Neutral13%

​*(Kitco News) - *Despite gold’s weakness Friday, both Wall St. and Main St. are expecting higher prices for the metal during the shortened trading week, this according to results from Kitco News’ latest Gold Survey.
Seventeen traders and analysts took part in a weekly Wall Street survey. 10 voters, or 59%, see gold prices rising by next Friday. Four, or 24%, said they see prices headed lower, while three voters, or 17%, look for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 1,988 respondents took part in a Main Street online survey. A total of 1,263 participants, or 64%, are calling for gold to rise, while 462, or 23%, see lower prices. The remaining 263 voters, or 13%, are neutral.
In last Friday’s survey, 56% of Wall Street voters and 55% of Main Street participants called for gold prices to increase in the current week. Around 1:31 P.M. EST, they were right, as Comex April gold was up 0.4% for the week trading at $1,239.20 an ounce. April gold is up 7.6% so far in 2017.
“Gold prices of late have been testing support just under the market, if you will, preparing for a healthy rally into higher territory,” noted Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor at Rosland Capital and managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors -- a sentiment shared among other Wall St. experts surveyed.
“Hedge funds and institutional speculators have been trading the recent range, buying on dips and selling on rallies, a behavioral pattern we expect will continue except within a somewhat higher range,” he added. 
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, said he is looking at $1,250 an ounce as his next upside target for gold, while Ken Morrison, editor of the newsletter Morrison on the Markets, said he could see the metal push up to $1,260.
“It helped gold that the dollar quickly retreated from its mid-week rally and, despite President Trump's insistence of 'fine-tuned machine', there continues to be numerous signs his main policy agenda such as health care, tax-reform, and trade are not as certain as has been perceived,” Morrison explained.
For RJO Futures’ Phil Streible, a possible correction in U.S. equities’ record-breaking run as well as uncertainty in Europe will work in gold’s favor next week.
However, not all analysts had such a strong conviction towards the yellow metal.
Kitco Metals’ global trading director Peter Hug said he needs to see gold close above $1,242 an ounce before he is convinced it is headed higher.
*By Sarah Benali of Kitco News; *[email protected]

[/FONT]


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## alshangiti (25 فبراير 2017)

[h=2]Gold, silver prices at 15-week highs as Trump trade unwinds[/h]Longest weekly winning streak for silver price in more than a decade
Frik Els | about 19 hours ago |  1,836 |  1

 PEOPLEMINE FACEBOOK LINKEDIN TWITTER EMAIL PRINT






Gold made headway for the fifth day in a row in heavy trade on Friday as the Trump-trade on financial markets begin to unwind, the dollar weakens and interest rates in the US trend lower again.
Gold for delivery in April, the most active contract on the Comex market in New York with nearly 19m ounces traded be early afternoon, was exchanging hands at $1,261.10, bringing its year-to-date gains to 9.5%. Gold is now at it's the highest since November 11, erasing much of its losses since the US presidential election.
Statements yesterday by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin bolstered arguments made by the gold bulls campGold bears had been making big bets that Trump's plans for fiscal stimulus, including a $500 billion infrastructure spending program, will lead to strong US economic expansion, higher interest rates. A number of prominent hedge fund managers and billionaires running family offices moved aggressively out of gold and into stocks.
Gold bulls pointed to likely inflation arising from deficit spending by a Trump administration, burnishing gold status as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty boosting gold's allure as safe haven asset.



Source: CME Group




Source: CME Group

Statements yesterday by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin bolstered arguments made by the gold bulls camp. Mnuchin said that the Trump administration's proposed tax cuts and other stimulus measures would have a limited impact on the economy this year which sent the dollar lower which usually moves in the opposite direction of gold.
A relatively dovish Federal Reserve statement this week also convinced the bond market that rate hikes this year may be fewer than expected and may only happen later in the year. Because gold is not yield-producing and investors have to rely on price appreciation for returns, the metal has a strong inverse correlation to US government bond yields.
Gold was also buoyed by safe haven buying as uncertainty about upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany and the impact on the European Union.
Gold helped to drag May silver contracts higher which were priced at $18.46 in afternoon trade in New York, up 1.5% from Thursday's close. It is the ninth straight week of gains for the silver price, the metal's best weekly run of gains in more than a decade. Year to date silver is up 13.7% and compared to lows hit January 2016, the metal has recovered more than 34% in value.
[h=3]Hedge funds diverge on gold, silver price[/h]Hedge funds or so-called managed money investors in gold futures and options cut their exposure to the yellow metal further last week according to trader positioning data supplied by the government.
Overall bullish positioning or net longs held by derivatives traders fell 10% to 6.7 million ounces, well below July's all-time record of nearly 29 million ounces when gold was hitting its 2016 peak.
Large scale speculators in silver is taking a different tack with CFTC data indicating that traders added to long positions and cut shorts – bets that silver can be bought back cheaper in future – at the same time. Net bullish positioning has now reached the equivalent of close to 354 million ounces, a 20-week high.


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## alshangiti (14 أبريل 2017)

Gold has a tendency to quickly fill in a “vacuum” in the absence of economic and geopolitical leadership, ICBC Standard Bank said in a report.




“At certain times, the absence of political leadership and/or direction in other markets can play strongly in favor of gold. Now appears to be such a time,” ICBC Standard strategist Tom Kendall said in a note.
Gold is currently benefitting from the U.S. Congress recess, especially being driven by the lack of new information about Republican fiscal and spending plans, Kendall said.
What's more, there are increased tensions around the Korean Peninsula, as well as no clear direction in which the U.S.-Russia foreign policy is heading, especially in regards to the Middle East. These elements have also boosted the yellow metal, Kendall added.
Other factors contributing to the rally include a drop in 10-year yields by 40 basis points in the space of two weeks. “Another 20bps lower and rates would be back at September 2016 levels, when gold was trading around $1,325-30,” stated Kendall.
U.S. jobs data also disappointed last week, and there was no positive action in U.S. equity markets, according to the note.
Many have asked how sustainable the recent gold rally really is and whether the yellow metal has room to go above the key psychological $1,300 level to trade at $1,330.
Kendall said he believes it is possible.
“Comex speculative positioning is currently moderate, the net non-commercial positioning is around half of last year’s peak of 31 million oz, while ETF inflows appear to have picked up momentum again. So, if the vacuum of leadership on both US economic and global geopolitical issues continues, the answer is yes,” he explained.
On Thursday, gold continued to see a boost from safe-haven demand, with June Comex gold settling 0.81% higher at $1,288.50 an ounce.
By Anna GolubovaFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (2 يونيو 2017)

rallied Friday and while analysts are quick to correlate the move with the weak U.S. jobs report, one analyst says they are wrong.



“Contrary to most headlines, it was not the payrolls figures that pushed gold up but weak inflation data,” noted Tom Kendall, head of precious metals strategy for ICBC Standard Bank, in a report Friday.
“Given that by most measures the U.S. is already very close to or at ‘full employment,’ the obsessive focus of headline writers on job creation is misplaced. Less reported but more important in the data releases today was another anemic figure for wage growth (0.2% month on month, 2.5% year on year).”
Gold prices rallied to a more than five-week high Friday, with August futures settling at $1,280.20 an ounce, up 0.80% on the day.
According to Kendall, lower inflation for longer would push bonds higher, nominal yields lower and cause real interest rates to remain close to zero. What’s more, low inflation would delay aggressive Fed tightening and would push out the date at which the central bank can start shrinking its balance sheet.
“That means reduced opportunity cost of holding gold and the greater the motivation for income funds to allocate something to it,” he explained.
But, aside from the headline jobs number, which came it at 138,000 in May, Kendall noted that analysts are also attributing gold’s rise to inaccurate reasons that investors should be careful of.
“Even the nonsense stories about peak gold mine production are starting to resurface as a reason to justify increased investment,” he said.
That said, Kendall remains bullish on the yellow metal, noting that $1,300 is not a hard target for the metal to surpass.
“To be clear, at this time we are not bearish gold,” he said. “Last week, we suggested gold had a good chance to trade above $1,300 by July 4th (U.S. Independence Day) and we may have been a bit conservative on that – today’s price action is encouraging from a technical perspective and a successful break of $1,300 could see an overshoot towards $1,340.”
If inflation figures would have risen to the Fed’s target of about 2%, Kendall suggested gold prices would have been closer to $1,150 an ounce.


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## alshangiti (2 يونيو 2017)

and analysts look for gold to maintain its post-payrolls momentum into next week, based on the weekly Kitco News gold survey.










[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



80% 
Bearish



0% 
Neutral 20% 



Market participants suggested a soft report on nonfarm payrolls Friday may mean less monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve later in the year. They also cited continuing political uncertainties as a supportive factor for gold, as well as technical-chart momentum as the precious metal hit its highest price in more than a month.
Twenty traders and analysts took part in a weekly Kitco News Wall Street survey. Sixteen voters, or 80%, see gold prices rising by next Friday. None said lower, while four voters, or 20%, were either neutral or expected sideways prices.
Due to a technical issue, there was no online Main Street survey this week, although Kitco News expects this to resume next week.
In last Friday's survey for the current week, 72% of Wall Street voters and 62% of Main Street voters were bullish. As of 11:45 a.m. EDT Friday, Comex August gold was 0.73% higher for the week so far, last trading at $1, 280.80 per ounce.
So far in 2017 but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 13 of 20 times for a winning percentage of 65%. Main Street was 12-8 for 60%.
“I think gold is going to continue to be up for a little while,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. “This number was bad for the dollar and we (gold) will move up now.”
Pavilonis was referring to the smaller-than-forecast rise of 138,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in the U.S. during May. Expectations had been for around 181,000 to 185,000 new jobs.George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, also looks for gold to rise, explaining that while markets have already factored in a Federal Reserve rate hike for this month, the jobs report now creates doubts about how aggressive policymakers may tighten later in the year.
Further, “it looks to me like there are enough political worries to keep a bid under gold,” Gero added, in particular mentioning June 8 congressional testimony from James Comey, the former FBI director who was fired by U.S. President Donald Trump. 
Colin Cieszynski, chief market analyst in Canada for CMC Markets, echoed Gero’s views.
“I am bullish on gold for next week,” Cieszynski said. “Soft U.S. payrolls and trade data has USD [U.S. dollar] on its heels. Even though the Fed is still likely to raise rates this month, that could be the last one for a while. Next week there’s more political risk brewing between the U.K. election and Comey speaking to Congress.”
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, described the precious metals as “very strong” at the moment. “It looks like $1,300 is around the corner,” he said.
Meanwhile, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, described himself as neutral for next week, expressing doubt that gold will maintain the upside momentum from the immediate aftermath of the payrolls report. He cited continuing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike U.S. interest rates when policymakers meet in the middle of the month.
“I’m not bearish on gold,” he said. “I’m not bullish. It’s not like I want to be short looking for lower prices


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## alshangiti (12 يونيو 2017)

Gold prices ended a quieter U.S. day session slightly lower Monday. A lack of new, bullish fundamental developments on the geopolitical front has somewhat limited buying interest in the safe-haven metal, and has allowed some profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders to set in. August Comex gold was last down $3.00 an ounce at $1,268.40. July Comex silver was last down $0.283 at $16.94 an ounce.
Focus is on this week’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Federal Reserve is expected by many to slightly raise U.S. interest rates. Traders and investors are also keen to see if the Fed acts to further reduce its big balance sheet of government securities.
The U.S. economic report pace also picks up speed significantly Tuesday and for the rest of the week.
The “outside markets” on Monday saw Nymex crude oil futures prices higher on some short covering. The oil market bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are well below $50.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index was slightly weaker. The greenback bears also hold the firm near-term technical advantage.


​​​Technically, August gold futures prices closed near mid-range today. The gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they are fading and need to show some fresh power soon. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,240.00. First resistance is seen at $1,275.00 and then at $1,280.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,265.60 and then at 1,260.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0


​​​July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low today. The silver market bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent sell-off. A four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $17.745 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.06. First resistance is seen at $17.00 and then at today’s high of $17.215. Next support is seen at today’s low of $16.89 and then at $16.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
July N.Y. copper closed down 330 points at 261.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 270.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 247.25 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 265.20 cents and then at 269.45 cents. First support is seen at 259.75 cents and then at 257.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

(Note: Follow me on [email protected] breaking market news.)
By Jim WyckoffFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (22 يونيو 2017)

Even if at a sluggish pace, gold prices are trekking higher into next year says RBC Capital Markets.
“We remain of the view that investors should expect the unexpected and while not a linear path, we do expect gold prices to follow a moderately upwards price path through 2018 as the uptick followed by trickle down pattern continues,” noted Christopher Louney, the bank’s commodities strategist, in a report Thursday.


​“[W]e still think that political and geopolitical risks can drive bids for gold as the landscape shifts.”
Despite some pullbacks, gold prices have headed higher this year. After hitting five-week lows, gold futures managed to move higher, last trading at $1,251.20 an ounce.


But, Louney did point out that gold’s momentum will not come without downward pressures – or as he put: “Long-running gold-negative headwinds of broadly strong equities, strong dollar, and rising rates.”
“In our view, the most recent moves in gold have been driven by fluctuations in those headwinds (including today’s moves especially),” he added.
Despite the headwinds, Louney said the bank has upped its average price forecasts for gold.
“Our 2017 average price forecast is $1253/oz, and $1303/oz in 2018.”
By Sarah Benali For Kitco News


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## alshangiti (5 يوليو 2017)

While gold tries to recover after falling to nearly a four-month low overnight, one bank remains optimistic that yellow metal can still shine in the second half of the year.





In their latest market report, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that they remain constructive that gold could end the year around $1,400 an ounce.
“Our view is driven by concerns over global growth, which could lead to an increase of cross asset volatility. In addition, our economists believe that continued Fed rate hikes in an environment of falling inflation may be increasingly difficult to justify,” the analysts said.
However, the comments came before gold broke through key support levels and fell to its lowest point since mid-March. Prices are currently seeing a bounce off its recent lows with August gold last trading at $1,222.30 an ounce, up 0.25% on the day. BAML’s reiterated forecast would represent a gain of more than 14% from current prices.
The biggest factor in gold’s favor is that investors are too complacent regarding market risk, BAML analyst s said. They noted that equity volatility could be too low as there has been a pick-up in the economic policy uncertainty index.
“We believe markets are somewhat too complacent and investors should build positions in volatility-exposed instruments. Broadly, we believe that there are various alternatives to protect portfolios against increasing policy risk and a rapid reversal in investor positioning. Investors could opt to increase their gold allocations,” the analysts said.
While markets are preparing for at least one more rate hike this year, with expectations now well above 50%, the analysts say that the Federal Reserve could be getting a little ahead of itself as a range of indictors point to slowing inflation and a stalling economy.
“Yield curves have flattened, which usually suggest a less robust growth picture. Along with scope for an increase in market distress, this may ultimately make the Fed somewhat less hawkish, which should then also support gold,” the analysts said.
While the American bank is optimistic on gold, the same can’t be said for silver. While the market continues to face dwindling supplies, the analysts said that this will be overwhelmed by weak demand.
They noted that ETF demand and U.S. bullion coin demand are at multi-year lows. The analysts note that a push to $20 an ounce by the end of the year is feasible if the market turns around; however, in reality they see prices remaining range-bound, with support coming in at $15 an ounce. July silver futures last traded at $15.90 an ounce, down 0.85% on the day.
By Neils ChristensenFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (22 يوليو 2017)

Gold investors will want to pay more attention to political turmoil in Washington D.C. as this could have more impact on the U.S. dollar and the yellow metal than the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.




Analysts have noted that gold is preparing to end Friday at its highest level in three weeks, its second consecutive weekly gain driven by further U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index is preparing to end the week at its lowest level since in more than a year. August gold last traded at $1,253.40 an ounce, up more than 2% from the previous Friday close. At the same time the U.S. Dollar Index last traded at 94, down more than 1%.
Silver is also ending its second week of positive gains with September silver futures last trading at 16.45 an ounce, up more than 3% from the previous week.
The selloff in the U.S. dollar picked up momentum this week as the U.S. Senate was unable to pass legislation to replace and repeal the Affordable Health Care Act. The failure of the bill has created some doubt as to whether or not Congress will be able to push forward ambitious fiscal proposals including tax reform and deregulation.
Analysts have noted that the U.S. dollar is also suffering because of ongoing turmoil in Donald Trump’s administration as an investigation into potential ties between Trump and Russia expands into the president’s personal business finances.
“Further political instability will be a homerun for gold because it is bad for the U.S. dollar,” said Adam Button, senior currency strategist at Forexlive.com. “The path for gold in the near-term is higher until something sparks a rally in the U.S. dollar.”
Bill Baruch, senior market analyst at iiTrader.com also said that he sees potential for additional U.S. dollar weakness in the near-term.
“It is going to take a string of better than expected data to reverse U.S. dollar weakness and I don’t see anything next week that could do that. It is going to take more than just one or two positive reports to stop the slide in the U.S. dollar,” he said.
*The Fed Has No Secrets That Could Hurt Gold Next Week
*
As majority of traders and investors are focusing on the U.S. politics next week, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is expected to be a relatively minor event.
While there are expectations that the Fed will announce that it is prepared to start unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet as early as September, some analysts said it is only a house keeping move since the central bank already released its plans on how it will shrink its balance sheet.
As revealed in the May’s monetary policy meeting minutes, the central bank would look to reduce investments in treasuries by $6 billion a month, increasing that level by $6 billion every three months until it reaches $30 billion. At the same time, it would reduce its holdings in mortgage-backed securities by $4 billion a month, raising the limit by $4 billion every three months until the amount reaches $20 billion.
“The only thing left for the Fed to do is announce the launch data of the plan and I don’t think that is a huge deal for the market,” said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN. “The reality is that there are not many secrets for the Fed anymore.”
Baruch agreed that the Fed announcement, if it comes next week, will have only a minimal impact on the market.
“I think the Fed has already been as hawkish as it’s going to be, so a lot of this is priced into the markets,” he said. “Because the economic data has been so poor I don’t think the central bank will be more hawkish than it has already been.”
In fact, some analysts noted that an announced launch of the balance sheet reduction plan is not a sure thing. Analysts at TD Securities said that they see a chance that the Fed delays the launch until September.
“Without a press conference or updated projections in July, we see the Fed largely on standby as they debate how to proceed with policy normalization along multiple dimensions — and how to communicate their decisions.” the analysts said in a research note Friday.
*But Is Gold Running Out Of Momentum?*
While a weaker U.S. dollar will be bullish for gold, some analysts see technical indicators that highlight weakening momentum in gold as it suffers from the summer doldrums.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Karen Jones, market analyst at Commerzbank said that while gold has potential, it doesn’t appear to have enough momentum to push above $1,300 an ounce. She added that a break of that key level is needed to signal the market’s renewed uptrend.
Newsom noted that gold’s daily uptrend is smacking into its weekly downtrend and the market could end up running out of as mid-week.
“I think we are at the point where gold has run its course in the short term,” he said.
Nick Exarhos, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said while he doesn’t see much bullish news for the U.S. dollar, he thinks the rally is a little bit overdone and the positive economic news next week could at least stop some of the selling pressure. This in turn, he noted should cap gains in gold.
*Levels To Watch*
Gold is ending the week in the middle of a four-month old channel between $1,200 and $1,300 an ounce. Analysts note that there are important resistance levels to watch in the near-term.
Baruch said that while gold bulls have the upper hand in the marketplace, prices need to push above $1,260 an ounce to confirm the renewed uptrend.
Newsom said that he is also watching the $1.260 level, but he expects that a failed breakout will eventually lead to prices pushing to the $1,190 area.
Jones explained that while she is optimistic on gold in the long-run, she can’t be completely bullish until prices push above $1,300 an ounce. On the flipside, she said that she wouldn’t shift to a bearish stance unless prices fall below $1,153 an ounce.
*The Final Say*
While the Federal Reserve is not expected to have much impact on markets, it will still be the main economic event next week.
However, a full docket of economic data will help to create some volatility in markets. Key reports include housing sales data, preliminary manufacturing data, consumer confidence numbers and durable goods data. The week ends with the second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product.By Neils ChristensenFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (22 يوليو 2017)

Wall Street and Main Street alike look for gold’s resurgence to continue next week, based on voting in the weekly Kitco News gold survey.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



72%
Bearish



6%
*Neutral22%*

[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



58%
Bearish



28%
*Neutral14%*

[/FONT]​Traders and analysts cited the continuing turmoil surrounding the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump, weakness in the U.S. dollar and technical-chart momentum.
Eighteen professionals took part in a Kitco News Wall Street survey. Thirteen voters, or 72%, see gold prices rising by the end of next week. Four voters, or 22%, look for a sideways market, while just one, or 6%, said lower.
The Kitco online Main Street poll resulted in 974 votes, with 567 participants, or 58%, calling for gold to climb over the next week. Another 269 voters, or 28%, said that gold will fall, while 138, or 14%, were neutral.
In last Friday's survey for the current week, 68% of Wall Street voters and 49% of Main Street (the largest voting bloc) called for gold to rise this week. As of 11:05 a.m. EDT, they were right, with Comex August gold up 1.9% the week to $1,250.90 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 17 of 27 times for a winning percentage of 63%. Main Street was right 16 of 26 times for 62%.
“Technicals are turning more bullish, including a fledgling price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, described himself as “friendly” toward gold, pointing out that the metal has now moved above several moving averages, including the 200- and 50-day averages. Much of the recent strength is likely short covering, he said. This is when traders with short, or bearish, positions buy in order to exit or cover their positions. There may well be more of this to come, Grady explained.
“With prices up here, some of these shorts are going to cover rather than roll” forward into future contract months ahead of first-notice day for the August gold contract, Grady said. 
Adam Button, currency analyst with Forexlive.com, also looks for gold to continue its recovery from multi-month lows reached earlier in the month. “The U.S. dollar is struggling and there is nothing in the calendar in the week ahead that threatens to turn the tide,” he said.
_Richard Baker_, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, also looks for more gold gains, pointing to strength in the precious metal priced in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Signs of dovishness from central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, combined with White House controversies “should maintain a rise in gold prices to at least the $1,260 level,” Baker said.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA, said he sees gold still largely in a trading range but with more upside than downside potential, particularly amid the troubles facing Trump. “I would say buy on dips,” he added.
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, looks for gold to turn sideways, with the market pausing ahead of the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. While nobody expects a rate hike, market participants will be closely scrutinizing the language in the post-meeting statement for clues on the future of monetary policy, he said. Then gold’s next move “depends on what we hear from them,” Haberkorn said.
Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN, cast the lone Wall Street bearish vote for next week. “I think we are at the point where gold has run its course in the short term,” he said.
By Allen SykoraFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (22 يوليو 2017)

On Friday, the price of gold finally caught up to a weaker US dollar lifting the metal to a four-week high.
Gold futures in New York for delivery in August, the most active contract, touched a high of $1,255.90, in brisk trade of more than 23m ounces.
Gold has clawed back $50 an ounce since July 10 following dovish comments by Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, about the pace of interest rate hikes in the US.
Those comments coupled with the lack of progress on fiscal stimulus policy in Washington put pressure on the dollar which on Friday weakened to its lowest level since May last year.



Source: Capital Economics

In late 2016, optimism about the economic impact of a Trump presidency and Republican control of both houses saw the greenback climb to 14-year highs, but sentiment has soured since then reports Yahoo Finance:
“Delays in the pro-growth Trump administration’s policies have not bolstered growth and in fact, the delay has led to disappointments in the US growth trajectory,” Deutsche Bank Wealth Management’s Larry Adam said.​The price of gold and the USD usually move in the opposite direction, but a new research note from Capital Economics points out that unusually gold had been falling for most of the last month, despite the decline in the dollar:
Indeed, the fall in the gold price in the wake of a rise in US interest rates was more intuitive than the depreciation of the dollar. That said, more recently, the gold price has resumed its inverse relationship with the US currency.​The US dollar index, measured against a basket of currencies of the country's major trading partners, fell to below 94 late on Friday.
Should the correlation between the currency and the metal reestablish itself, this chart suggest a gold price above $1,350 an ounce.
The US dollar's all-time peak of 164.7 was reached in February 1985. That coincided with a bottom in the price of gold of $284.25 an ounce.

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## alshangiti (4 أغسطس 2017)

A strong U.S. jobs report for July blunted some of the short-term enthusiasm for gold, but wasn’t enough to make respondents in the weekly Kitco News gold survey bearish.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



47%
Bearish



41%
*Neutral12%*

[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



48%
Bearish



38%
*Neutral14%*

[/FONT]​The largest bloc of voters in both the Wall Street and Main Street polls look for the yellow metal to rise again next week. In each survey, however, the bull camp was less than 50% of the total votes.
Gold is headed for a lower weekly finish, with most of the damage coming Friday as the U.S. government reported a stronger-than-expected rise of 209,000 in July employment. The stronger number means continued potential for another U.S. interest-rate hike this year, observers said.
Seventeen market professionals took part in a Kitco News Wall Street survey. Eight voters, or 48%, see gold prices rising by the end of next week. Seven, or 41%, said lower, while the other two, or 12%, see a sideways market.
The Kitco online Main Street poll resulted in 714 votes, with 342 participants, or 48%, calling for gold to climb over the next week. Another 272 voters, or 38%, said that gold will fall, while 100, or 14%, were neutral.
In last Friday's survey for the current week, 71% of Wall Street voters and 65% of Main Street called for gold to rise this week. As of 11:11 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was down 1% the week to $1,263.10 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 19 of 29 times for a winning percentage of 66%. Main Street was right 18 of 28 times for 64%.
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, suggested gold prices will bounce after initial weakness in the aftermath of the U.S. jobs report.
“I think after this price break, you’ll see more buying come in,” he said, suggesting the U.S. dollar may remain soft. Gold could briefly fall to the mid to low $1,250s area, he continued, but then may remain underpinned by more “political chaos going forward.” So Lusk’s bottom line: “I wouldn’t want to be short here. I think we’re in an environment where dips will be bought.”
Bill Baruch, senior market analyst at iiTrader.com, is also upbeat on gold. He said that while the employment data was good, it also was not enough to reverse the impact of a previous string of disappointing economic reports. Further, he said the jobs report wasn’t robust enough to increase expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the absence of this will ultimately be positive for gold.
Meanwhile, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, looks for the metal to slide some more after the jobs data.
“It looks like those [jobs numbers] are positive for the economy,” Grady said. “Although it [the next expected U.S. interest-rate hike] is not going to be until December – it confirms that it will be in December. That is going to be a strong headwind for gold.”
The market has been helped lately by “strong buying” from speculators on pullbacks, he said, with physical demand in India and other key buying nations reportedly soft. Still, “I think there is going to be sellers of rallies. I’m looking for around $1,275 to be good resistance for us.”
Colin Cieszynski, senior market analyst at CMC Markets, said that he is bearish on gold as the market wasn’t able to break above a technical trendline from the December low and the May low. He added that momentum indicators are also starting to roll over, highlighting the risk of lower prices. Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial, also said lower, since the market “appears to be stalling” after recent gains.
Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index, is neutral on gold.
“Right now, we are in the middle of its year-long trend and until we get a break out above $1,300 or below $1,200, everything in the middle is just noise.”


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## alshangiti (4 أغسطس 2017)

[h=1]255k Ounces Worth of Gold Up For Grabs At Mega Millions Lottery[/h]


Sarah Benali _*Friday August 04, 2017 11:47*_




*Kitco News*
_Share this article:_


_*Editor's Note:* Kitco readers, have your say! Check out our newest feature – *KITCO CHAT!* – where you can share your comments and ask questions directly to us._
_



*(Kitco News) - *Another lottery is making headlines, this time the Mega Millions $323 million jackpot, which will be drawn Friday at 11p.m. EDT._
_“The tenth largest jackpot in the history of Mega Millions will be up for grabs on Friday, August 4, after no ticket matched all six numbers drawn Tuesday night,” the official lottery website said. “With the jackpot roll, Friday’s estimated jackpot is $323 million ($199 million cash).”_
_So, the $199 million cash prize is up for grabs and at current gold prices, that would amount to about 158,000 ounces – or about five Liberty Bells worth of gold._
_But, after taxes, the winner will be walking away with a significantly lower amount._
_According to USAMega.com, the $199 million cash prize will be subject to a 25% federal tax, or $50 million. That’s not to mention the state tax. The website showed that a New York state winner would be subject to the highest state tax, landing at an additional $17.6 million (or 8.82%). _
_Putting it simply, after taxes, the winner will be walking away with roughly $131.4 million – or 105,000 ounces worth of gold (or roughly three Liberty Bells)._
_“Last summer’s $536 million jackpot, won July 8, 2016, in Indiana, was the third largest Mega Millions jackpot in history and the most ever awarded to a single winner. The second highest was $648 million on December 17, 2013, with winners in California and Georgia. The record jackpot was $656 million on March 30, 2012, a prize that was split by three winners, one each in Illinois, Kansas and Maryland,” the website wrote._
_What would you do with your lottery win?_

_By Sarah BenaliFor *Kitco News*


[email protected]
www.kitco.com
_


_*Disclaimer:* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those _


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## alshangiti (8 سبتمبر 2017)

[h=1]Gold Bulls 'Holding All The Cards' Next Week Despite Consolidation Talk[/h]


Anna Golubova _*Friday September 08, 2017 13:56*_




*Kitco News*
_Share this article:_


_*Editor's Note:* Kitco readers, have your say! Check out our newest feature – *KITCO CHAT!* – where you can share your comments and ask questions directly to us._
_



*(Kitco News) -* Analysts remain bullish on gold next week but warn that some further consolidation is unavoidable after the yellow metal hit a fresh one-year high on Friday.
The precious metal surged above $1,360 by the end of this week, while the *U.S. dollar* sunk to more than two-year lows amid geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea, fading Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and destruction caused by Hurricane Harvey.
Towards the end of the day on Friday, the metal cooled off, with *December Comex gold* last seen trading at $1,351.10, up 0.06% on the day.
Analysts pointed out that the North Korea situation is not going to go away next week, adding that they will be watching it very closely.
“The North Korean crisis and whether there will be any development on that front is key. If it comes back in the news with possible escalation, it will benefit gold,” Simona Gambarini, analyst at Capital Economics, told Kitco News.
Also, all eyes will be on Hurricane Irma and any additional economic implications, which could put more pressure on the Fed to adapt a more dovish stance.
“Harvey hit Texas, impeding the U.S. economy over the next quarter or two. We saw unemployment go up because of it. Irma doesn’t look good either. We could very well have more problems on the eastern seaboard because of Irma, on top of disruptions in Texas,” said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities.
Peter Hug, Kitco’s global trading director, also confirmed that gold’s price moves next week will be largely dependent on the outcome of Hurricane Irma, which is currently approaching Florida.
“Right now, it’s a bet on Irma,” Hug said. “If it hits directly, gold goes up. If it skirts the coast, I see some profit-taking next week, as the dollar should bounce. Tracking shows a direct hit so I think up in gold, but I hope I am wrong [about potential hurricane damage].”
Other primary drivers – global uncertainty and weak U.S. dollar – will remain in place as well, noted Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM. “With uncertainty across the board and overall caution likely to stimulate the flight to safety, safe-haven assets such as gold remain heavily supported,” Otunuga pointed out.
Melek added that given geopolitical tensions and a dysfunctional Congress, gold will eventually move to $1,375 an ounce. But first, traders might see some consolidation, as gold might be topping out. “It might go down from its recent highs of $1,357. Support has moved to mid $1,330s,” he said.
Christopher Louney, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, also views the current gold rally as overextended.
“We have recommended gold as a risk overlay for some time now, albeit we do think that the current rally looks overextended. In fact, our base case is for these risks to recede at least somewhat, leaving gold to contend with possible physical demand destruction, and the resultant shifts in retail and other investor demand to say the least (the risks to this view center on North Korea and congressional (in)action),” Louney said.
Yet, Kitco’s senior analyst Jim Wyckoff is not expecting the pullback in gold to be significant. “Sellers are likely to remain very timid,” he said. “The gold market bulls are still holding all the good cards heading into an uncertain weekend.”
*Macro Data*
Next week’s data focus will be on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales releases scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively.
“We are going to be very much data watchers. Starting mid-week we’ve got PPI and CPI (key number for August since it is the one the Fed is worried about),” Melek said. “Right now, there is no impetus for the Fed to get tighter. And it has been talking dovish of late because of lack of inflation, retail sales, and hurricane developments.”
This week's jobless claims data disappointed, as the U.S. Labor Department report showed Thursday that initial weekly jobless claims surged by 62,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000, citing impact of Hurricane Harvey. The new tally marked the highest level since April 2015.
“The change in weekly unemployment claims was important, as in the next few weeks it could have a negative impact on September’s nonfarm payrolls and that could benefit gold,” said Gambarini. “Employment data have been consistently strong over the past couple of years and promoted the Fed to hike. If there is a weakening on the back of hurricane effects, it could impact Fed decisions later this year.”
*Levels to Watch*
Analysts believe the $1,400 level remains a possibility for gold down the line. “If gold can trade sustainably at and above $1,350, then it could easily reach $1,400,” said Gambarini.
Yet, Melek said that $1,400 might not be possible without some more certainty around any rate-hike delays.
“So long as there is still a chance the U.S. central bank pulls the trigger on the higher Fed funds [rate], along with the risk of three more hikes next year, money managers will have difficulties to justify growing long positions past their current extreme levels, or to erode short exposure anymore,” he said. “A sustained run into $1,400/oz is unlikely to happen until the market eliminates a few hikes from its projections.”
In the short-term, Otunuga noted that a breakout above $1,350 may open a path higher towards $1,365. “Daily bulls remain in firm control and are likely to secure more control if gold concludes the week above $1340.”
By Anna GolubovaFor *Kitco News*


[email protected]
www.kitco.com

_


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## alshangiti (5 أكتوبر 2017)

[h=1]If Gold Prices Stay At These Levels, There Will Be a Problem - Joe Mazumdar[/h]Oct 05, 2017
Guest(s): Joe Mazumdar Geologist & Analyst, Exploration Insights

With gold price trading at current levels, below $1,300 an ounce, one geologist says we may be running out of gold. “If the gold price stays at these levels, there’s not enough quality ounces,” Exploration Insights’ Joe Mazumdar told Kitco News at the Mines & Money conference in Toronto. The problem? There is not enough exploration, he said. “Grassroots exploration as a proportion of exploration expenditures for gold has been declining since 2003, the majors are just not doing it,” he explained. “Right now, it’s difficult to find grassroots explorers that are well valued


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## alshangiti (5 أكتوبر 2017)

[h=1]Have We Reached Peak Gold? - Auryn Resources[/h]Oct 05, 2017
Guest(s): Ivan Bebek Executive Chairman, Auryn Resources

Gold production is reaching it’s peak, this was Auryn Resources executive director Ivan Bebek’s message to investors. “It’s not easy to find gold,” he told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Mines & Money conference in Toronto. “I feel like we’re in an 2005-06 era with an initial comeback for the juniors,” he said. “But growth is becoming a challenge for exploration companies.” Bebek also had some harsh comments on cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. “I’m not a fan of bitcoin, I’m old f


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## alshangiti (13 أكتوبر 2017)

*(Kitco News) - *Nobody can accuse Wall Street or Main Street participants in the Kitco News gold survey of paraskevidekatriaphobia.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



65%
Bearish



18%
*Neutral18%*

[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



61%
Bearish



30%
*Neutral9%*

[/FONT]​This is the fear of Friday the 13th. And even though the survey falls on this superstitious day, participants were expecting good luck – not bad – for gold, calling for the metal to be higher by the end of next week.
The metal ran into good fortune this week when minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that policymakers may not be as hawkish as previously thought. That, combined with a softer-than-forecast U.S. Consumer Price Index, enabled Comex December gold to pop back above $1,300 an ounce on Friday for the first time since Sept. 26.
Seventeen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Eleven participants, or 65%, look for gold to be higher next week. Three, or 18%, called for lower, and the same number saw a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 740 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll, in which 448 voters, or 61%, predicted gold will rise in the week ahead. Another 224, or 30%, were bearish. The neutral votes totaled 68, or 9%.
For the trading week now winding down, 67% of Wall Street voters were bearish, while the largest bloc of Main street voters (44%) was bullish. Around 11:03 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up by 2.1% for the week so far to $1,301.80 an ounce.
So far in 2017, but not counting the current week, Wall Street forecasters collectively were right 23 of 39 times for a winning percentage of 59%. Main Street was right 24 of 38 times for 63%. Wall Street was ahead for nearly all of 2017 before a four-week losing streak on the verge of becoming five weeks.
“I believe geopolitics surrounding the Iran deal and North Korea, together with buoyancy from rising commodities, will lift gold to $1,310 per ounce next week – possibly higher,” said _Richard Baker_, editor of the Eureka Miner Report. “Silver should follow gold higher next week to $17.40 per ounce.”
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for more gains. “It is increasingly clear that the Federal Reserve is going to be extremely cautious with any tightening,” he said.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, looks for gold to try to fill a gap on a daily chart above the market. “It’s technical and wants to move higher,” he said.
Peter Degraaf, a regular commentator for Kitco News, also sees prices rising.
“October is usually a positive month for the gold price, as Chinese demand is strong after the ‘Golden Week Holiday,’” he said. “The U.S. dollar index appears to be weakening again, after a technical rebound in September. Weakness in the dollar index almost always coincides with a rising gold price.”
Adam Button, currency analyst with Forexlive.com, among those who anticipates the market will head back to the downside. “The U.S. dollar momentum is fading as we get into the weeds of the tax cut debate, but there is still enough in the tank to clip gold.”
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, is among those who are neutral in the short term. On the one hand, Friday’s CPI data was supportive and worries about North Korea remained. However, he said, December gold is still facing technical resistance around $1,305, which is also where the contract stopped at a session high of $1,305.10 as of late in the New York morning.
“As long as we stay below that ($1,305) number, I think you’ll see…a bit of profit-taking,” Grady said. He added that “one thing really throwing people off” is uncertainty about who will be the next leader of the Federal Reserve. “Until we get more clarity on that, the future interest-rate picture is going to be a little murky.”


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## alshangiti (13 أكتوبر 2017)

*(Kitco News) -* The gold market is picking up some momentum following data that shows U.S. inflation remained muted last month, creating further doubt of more Federal Reserve monetary policy action.
Friday, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September, after increasing 0.4% in August, the U.S. Labor Department said. However, this was weaker than expected; consensus forecasts were calling for a rise of 0.6%.
Monthly core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1%, following a 0.2% advance in July. Economists were expecting to see a 0.2% rise in price pressures.
December gold last traded at $1,302.60 an ounce in reaction to the weaker than expected inflation data.
The rise in headline inflation was due to another strong rise in gasoline prices. The gasoline index rose 13.1% last month, the report said, which has helped to push annual inflation up to 2.2%.
Annual core inflation, remained unchanged at 1.7%. While not the Federal Reserve preferred method of inflation data, the index does continue to show muted price pressures; vore CPI has been on a steady decline, falling from a high of 2.3% seen at the start of the year. This is the fifth consecutive month that core annual inflation has hovered at 1.7%.
The inflation data could start to shift expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Wednesday, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that there is already growing concerns about the weak price pressures among some members of the committee.
Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC World Markets dismissed some of the inflation weakness as a result of the hurricanes that have impacted the nation. However, he showed some concern that core inflation remains at the lower end of its range for the year.
"Overall, the soft core CPI numbers will weigh on US yields, and provide a headwind for the US dollar today," he said.
Michael Pearce, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, also suggested that the weak inflation data could be atrtibuted to to the hurricane disruptions. He added that he expects prices to trend higher in the coming months.
"The September CPI report is unlikely to stop the Fed hiking rates again in December," he sai


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## alshangiti (24 نوفمبر 2017)

For the second week in a row, gold prices have pushed to within striking distance of the key $1,300-an-ounce level. However, while momentum is building, analysts say a major catalyst is still needed to push prices outside their current range.




The gold market is ending Friday modestly weaker but it remains in a technical uptrend, with most investors and traders focused on Black Friday deals. December gold futures last traded at $1,287.50 an ounce, down 0.69% from last Friday.
Weak momentum in the gold market has also dragged down silver prices. December silver futures last traded at $17.112 an ounce, down 1.5% from the previous week.
As to what the next catalyst could be that will drive gold above $1,300, some economists say that the precious metal needs to see a strong correction in equity markets.
Eugen Weinberg, analyst at Commerzbank, said that record high equity valuations and a surging Bitcoin market are providing tough competition for gold prices. He added that these are the two sectors he is watching to determine gold’s next big move.
“It is going to take more than U.S. dollar weakness to push gold above $1,300 an ounce,” he said.
While gold could remain range bound in the near term, Weinberg said his “gut feeling” is that gold’s next big move is to the upside.
“Despite plenty of reasons to selloff, gold has held steady. So if gold can’t go down, then the next move should be to the upside,” he said.” There is some internal strength in gold that you can’t ignore.”
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said that he is also watching equity markets as the possible catalyst that will push gold higher. While he is bullish on gold, he described the market as boring and lacking enthusiasm.
“I think we need an unexpected event to drive equities down and gold higher,” he said. “Despite the lack of a catalyst, gold still looks positive and I think the market, without any fireworks, will continue to grind higher.”
Bob Mason, technical analyst at FXempire.com, is a third analyst who sees equity markets as a driver for gold; however, he sees a bearish tilt for gold in the near term.
While geopolitical risks and the threat of a correction in overvalued equity markets is keeping a bid under the yellow metal, Masson said that there is no reason investors should expect to see stocks sell-off in the near-term.
“Overall growth in the global economy does not suggest a shift in risk sentiment at this time,” he said. “I think gold could be slightly overvalued and the U.S. dollar is slightly undervalued. If we see geopolitical risks subside, then we could see a correction in gold.”
Mason added that in the current environment, institutional money has to go towards the capital flows and that right now is in equity markets.
In the near term, Masson said that he could see gold prices test the lower bound of its current range around $1,260 an ounce.
*Is U.S. Dollar Undervalued?*
Mason isn’t the only one who sees near-term strength in the U.S. dollar. Nick Exarhos, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, said that he thinks U.S. dollar weakness is a little overdone as markets misjudged the dovish sentiment in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy meeting.
“The dollar sold off on the minutes, but the Federal Reserve is still on pace to raise interest rates in December and we think the market is underpricing interest rates for 2018 and that will be negative for gold,” he said.
CME 30-Day Fed fund futures are pricing in a less than 50% chance of two rate hikes by November 2018; however, the central bank forecasts three rate hikes next year.
“I just don’t see a catalyst for significantly higher gold prices anytime soon,” he said.
However, others analyst see further downside for the U.S. dollar in the near-term as the yield curve – the price spread between short-term bonds and long-term bonds -- remains at multi-year lows. Currently the price spread between 20-year bond and 10-year bonds is less than 60 basis points. This flattening curve is a negative for the U.S. dollar because it highlights the fact that investors are worried about short-term economic growth.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that the flatter yield curve could create short covering in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, which would be positive for gold.
*Levels To Watch*
Despite ongoing resilience, the gold market remains trapped in a range with key resistance coming in at $1,306, the high from October. Technical analysts note that gold needs to push above this level to attract new momentum to the marketplace.
Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG, said that he is watching the $1,296 resistance in the near term, with the next target at $1,307. On the downside, he said that a push below $1,274 an ounce could lead to a test of the bottom of the range at $1,264.
Madden said that while he is watching $1,300, the gold market has managed to eke out a small uptrend. He said that he sees initial support at the 100-day moving average, which comes in around $1,284 an ounce.
“If we go below $1,270, that could be a signal that we are headed back to the October lows,” he said.
*The Final Say*
After what has been a quiet holiday week, the economic calendar picks up, with a full docket scheduled. Major economic reports include housing sales data, the second print of third-quarter gross domestic product, and personal income and spending for October.
The markets will also receive consumer confidence data for November, as well as regional and national manufacturing data.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be on Capitol Hill to testify on the state of the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
By Neils ChristensenFor Kitco News


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## alshangiti (7 ديسمبر 2017)

Kitco News
Share this article:


_*(Kitco News) -* Gold and silver prices ended the U.S. day session lower Thursday. Scant risk aversion in the marketplace recently has emboldened the sellers. Gold dropped to a four-month low today, while silver hit a nearly five-month low. A rebound in the U.S. dollar index this week is also working against the precious metals market bulls. February Comex gold was last down $12.40 an ounce at $1,253.70. March Comex silver was last down $0.175 at $15.78 an ounce._
_World stock markets were mostly higher Thursday, including U.S. stock indexes. World stock indexes that are at or near record or multi-year highs are a testament of the keener risk appetite in the marketplace at present, which is a big negative for the safe-haven gold and silver markets._
_(Please allow me to share with you some important trading/investing wisdom from my nearly 35 years in this business, including working on the trading floors in Chicago, New York and Europe. Of all my contacts with successful traders over four decades, nearly all of them used some form of charting or technical analysis to help them get an edge. If you are not doing so, may I suggest you begin to look at price charts? You do not have to be an expert on technical analysis. Even the novice trader can determine what is the most important element of technical analysis: a price trend. Every day I publish easy-to-understand technical charts, FREE on Kitco. If you are not doing so already, examine these charts every day. I guarantee you that doing so will make you a better informed (and probably more profitable) trader/investor.)_
_Traders and investors are monitoring U.S. government lawmakers’ negotiations with President Trump over a stop-gap measure to keep the federal government in operation. It’s expected the stop-gap funding bill will be implemented later this week._
_The other key “outside market” Thursday saw Nymex crude oil futures prices higher. However, the price uptrend in crude oil has stalled, which begins to suggest a near-term market top is in place. _

_The U.S. economic report highlight of the trading week will be Friday morning’s November U.S. employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to be up 195,000. Wednesday’s U.S. ADP national employment report for November showed a rise of 190,000 jobs._
_

_​​_Technically, February gold futures prices closed near the session low. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, the market is now technically oversold and due for a corrective bounce soon. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,280.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,214.50. First resistance is seen at $1,260.00 and then at today’s high of $1,266.80. First support is seen at $1,250.00 and then at $1,245.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5_
_

_​​_March silver futures prices closed nearer the session low and hit another nearly five-month low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $15.225. First resistance is seen at $16.00 and then at $16.17. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.76 and then at $15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5._
_March N.Y. copper closed up 60 points at 296.75 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering after hitting a nine-week low on Tuesday. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 310.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 280.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 300.00 cents and then at 305.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 294.30 cents and then at the September low of 291.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5_


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## Abidalkhaleq.Saad (5 يناير 2018)

Eventually, all these made up paper and electronic currencies are going to slowly fade away and we will go back to using Gold and Silver...At that time the price of Gold and Silver will hickup dramatically>>>> mark my words!​


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## alshangiti (20 يناير 2018)

يسعدنى الترحيب بالمهندس عبدالخالق وسيم سعد مهندس التخطيط بمنجم الامار فى شركة معادن للذهب ونتطلع الى مشاركاتك لاثراء الموقع


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## alshangiti (20 يناير 2018)

will do


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## alshangiti (20 يناير 2018)

[h=1]Kitco News Weekly Outlook: Gold Ends Five-Week Winning Streak, What’s Next?[/h]


Neils Christensen _Friday January 19, 2018 13:27_




_Kitco News_
_Share this article:_


_*(Kitco News) -* The U.S. dollar remains the key market gold investors need to watch in the near-term as further weakness will continue to support the yellow metal, according to analysts._
_



Although gold is preparing to end the week in negative territory -- ending a five-week winning streak -- analysts see strong technical momentum in the marketplace that will continue to support prices._
_February gold futures last traded at $1,333.70 an ounce, relatively flat from last Friday. Despite the slight pullback, prices remain near their highest levels in four months._
_Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that a shallow correction in gold from last week is a sign that there is positive underlying sentiment in the marketplace. He added that it is a sign that prices have room to move higher in the near term._
_*Looming Government Shutdown*_

_Helping to boost gold ahead of the weekend is a weaker U.S. dollar, which has fallen back to a three-year low as markets see a growing risk of the U.S. government shutting down if Congress is unable to pass budget resolution legislation._
_The U.S. Senate has until midnight before the government runs out of money and is forced to shutter nonessential departments and place government employees on furlough._
_Christopher Vecchio, senior currency strategist at DailyFx, said that the U.S. dollar is bearing the brunt of ongoing political uncertainty in Washington, as markets ignore bullish factors like rising bond yields, strong economic growth and an ongoing equity bull market._
_“Political risk is driving the U.S. dollar at this point in time,” he said. “Even if the government doesn’t shutdown, will we see a recovery in the U.S. dollar? Maybe, but, I don’t think it is a game changer in the long run. The dollar is sick right now.”_
_



__Vecchio added that systemic greenback weakness will continue to support gold prices._
_“Gold is in a really good place right now,” he said. “I think buying gold on the dips as prices should be the prerogative for traders in the near-term. We are holding above $1,323 and I think it’s an easy shot through $1,345 to the September highs.”_
_*Is Gold Due For A Pull Back*_
_ However, some analysts have warned that because the gold market is at elevated levels, a final hour deal that sees the government pass a budget could create some profit taking into next week._
_Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at the Fundamental Technician, said that he is neutral on gold in the near-term. He noted that the market is in a strong uptrend but technical signals point to slowing momentum in the near term._
_Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, said that while gold market could consolidate lower next week, there is enough technical momentum to keep prices above key support levels._
_He added that not only is gold benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar but fund managers are also moving back into the yellow metal to establish defensive positions against a potential correction in equity markets and rising inflation concerns._
_*Yields Continue To Rise But So Does Gold*_
_The breakdown in the negative correlation between gold prices and bond yields continues to surprise investors. Ten-year bond yields, at 2.63%, have risen to highest level in a year, but gold continues to hold near a four-month high._
_Hansen said that the divergence in the correlation bodes well for gold as it is further evidence that there is underlying support for the yellow metal. He added that while bond yields are going up, inflation expectations are also rising, which means real yields remain relatively low, a positive factor for gold, which is seen as a non-yielding asset._
_*Levels To Watch*_
_Cieszynski, said that he sees gold trading in a $20 range in the near-term and the next breakout will determine the direction of the next trade._
_“If gold breaks support at $1,324 an ounce then you will see lower gold prices,” he said. “If the market breaks resistance at $1,344 an ounce, then the direction is higher.”_
_While, Vecchio sees critical initial support at $1,323 an ounce, he added that he wouldn’t be outright bearish on gold until prices broke below $1,305 an ounce. On the upside he said the key level to watch is the September high at $1,357._
_*The Final Say*_
_The economic calendar will depend entirely on what happens in Washington. If there is a government shutdown, then traders get to sleep in, as the government will not release or collect economic data._
_However, if a last-minute deal is made, then next week will be fairly busy with variety of economic reports. The key report will come out on Friday with the first reading of fourth quarter gross domestic product._
_Outside of the U.S., traders will want to keep an eye on the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting Monday and the European Central Bank meeting Thursday. Hawkish comments from these two central banks have boosted their respective currencies against the U.S. dollar, which in turn has helped the gold market._
_Also global leaders will converge in Davos Switzerland for the annual World Economic Foru_


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## alshangiti (27 يناير 2018)

Traders and investors that follow gold and the US dollar were participants in a virtual roller coaster ride this week as conflicting versions of the current administration’s policy on the US dollar surfaced.
Statements made by Stephen Mnuchin the Treasury Secretary on Wednesday sent gold prices sharply higher, and the US dollar index sharply lower. The dollar index lost roughly 1% in value, and gold gained over $22 per ounce on that day alone immediately following a comment made by Treasury Secretary when he said “a weak dollar is good for trade”.



This was followed by comments made by President Trump in an interview with CNBC on Thursday in which he said that he wanted to see a stronger US dollar. The president was quoted as saying “The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar”. He also mentioned that Treasury Secretary’s comment were taken out of context.
The comments made by the president during the interview were in conflict with earlier statements, and more so were the opposite of the perceived monetary policy of this current administration.
In April of last year, the president said that the currency (dollar) was “getting too strong” in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. That caused the dollar index to drop by a half percent in under 15 minutes.
The president comments in his interview yesterday sent gold prices plunging and the US dollar index higher. These polar opposite statements have confused investors and analysts as to the actual desired policy of this current administration.
In an interview in MarketWatch Michael Kosares, of USAGOLD said “The Trump administration offered “two different versions of the [dollar] policy simultaneously and the market will be in a guessing game as to which one is the actual policy. But “given the dollar’s performance over the past year or so, it looks like a weaker dollar is the market reality, at least for now,”
Even with the president’s comments on Thursday about a strong dollar, the upside bounce of the dollar index which short-lived lasting only a day. In today’s trading the dollar index lost – 0.30 %, and spot gold gained about two dollars on the day.
More so on a weekly basis gold gained value and the US dollar index continued its steep decline. It seems that it is more likely that both the US dollar and gold will continue on their current trajectory next week, with gold gaining value, and the US dollar continuing to trade lower.



For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com


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## alshangiti (27 يناير 2018)

[h=1]Gold Market Could See Quiet Start To Next Week Ahead of FOMC And Employment Data[/h]


Neils Christensen _Friday January 26, 2018 12:23_




_Kitco News_
_Share this article:_


_*(Kitco News) -* While gold prices are off their 1.5-year highs seen mid-week, the market is still holding on to strong gains and many analysts have said that they still see the potential for higher prices, even if there is a modest consolidation period._
_



The gold market is looking to end the week in positive territory as it hovers around the critical psychological level. February gold futures last traded at $1,352.40 an ounce, up more than 1% since last Friday. In total, the gold market has seen six weekly positive closes in seven as prices are up 9% since the mid-December lows._
_After a few weeks of lackluster performance compared to gold, silver is back on its front foot, outperforming the yellow metal as it manages to hold key support. March silver futures last traded at $17.425 an ounce, up more than 3% from the previous week._
_Silver has seen five weeks of positive gains in the last seven as prices are up almost 13% from its mid-December lows._
_Next week will be busy with major economic events including the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting of the year, which is also Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting, and employment data from January. However, commodity analysts say that they will continue to monitor gold’s relationship against the U.S. dollar as President Donald Trump’s administration creates volatility in currency markets._
_Mid-week, gold was sent to a 1.5-month high after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that a weak U.S. dollar had been “good” for the U.S. economy. Gold prices reversed course Thursday after Trump contradicted his cabinet minister, saying that he wants to see a stronger U.S. dollar. He added that Mnuchin’s comments were taken out of context._
_

__Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic on gold as the two contradictory comments could indicate that the government has no official policy on the U.S. dollar._
_“I think ultimately if the U.S. wants a super strong America they want a weak U.S. dollar to drive export growth,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “What I think this means is that they are not going to deliberately weaken the U.S. dollar, but they are also not going to promote strong dollar policies either.”_
_Lawler added that he expects gold prices to continue to benefit from this confusion and uncertainty in currency markets._
_*Look For Slow Start To Gold Next Week*_
_Analysts have noted that after gold’s strong gains since mid-December a price correction is not unexpected and is healthy for long-term gains. Many have noted that this late-week selling pressure could continue into the early part of next week, but they add that bullish sentiment in the marketplace remains strong, which should ultimately push prices higher._
_“I think we see a short-term top in the range, but I expect we will see a bullish breakout soon,” said Lawler._
_Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at the Fundamental Technician, said that regardless of the Administration’s official policy on the U.S. dollar, the currency is extremely oversold and is due for a bounce, which will end up weighing on gold near-term._
_“I don’t see a major correction in gold, but it looks like the market is due for a healthy correction with support at $1,340 and then at $1,325,” he said._
_*Fed Meeting Is A Non Event*_
_Interestingly, some analysts see the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting next week as a non-event. David Madden, senior market analyst at CMC Markets, said that because this is Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting, the central bank will not “rock the boat.”_
_He added that any comments in the statement will be dismissed as Janet Yellen’s “swan song” as this is her last meeting. He said that he sees the meeting posing little risk to gold's current rally._
_“We could see a slow start in gold next week as some investors sit on the fence, but they will stay long gold until mid-February,” he said. “The March meeting is what matters. That is the meeting you don’t want to be long gold.”_
_Currently, 30-Day Fed Fund futures are pricing a less than 6% chance of a rate hike in January. However, markets see a 75% chance of a 25 basis-point hike in March._
_*U.S. Employment Will Be A Driver For Gold Next Week*_
_While some traders may nap through the Fed meeting next week, they will be awake Friday for the release of January’s nonfarm payrolls report. Economists are expecting to see jobs gains of around 200,000; however, some analysts have warned that the headline job gains is no longer as crucial as wage growth._
_Wages last year saw lackluster wage growth of 2.5%, economists have said that if wages don’t go up, the Federal could be forced to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes expected in 2018 and weak inflation pressures continue to grow._
_“Friday’s employment numbers will be the report to watch next week as this will set the tone for economic growth for the year,” said Madden._
_*Continue To Watch Equity Markets*_
_While the U.S. dollar remains the primary driver for gold prices, some commodity analysts are starting to pay more attention to equity markets, which continue to hit record highs. Madden added that if the rally begins to fade gold could benefit as capital flows into more defensive positions._
_“Gold has done very well this past month despite record valuation in equity markets. Just think what would happen if equities correct. I think it’s a win-win for gold,” he said._
_George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, said in a recent interview with Kitco News that he also expects to see fund managers diversify into gold as prices push above $1,350 an ounce._
_*Key Levels To watch*_
_With gold hovering around $1,350, most technical analysts are watching to see if the market can break above the July 2016 highs at $1,375. Because of strong bullish sentiment, many analysts say it’s only a matter of time before this level breaks this year._
_“There is a strong wall of resistance between 1365.8 all the way up to 1392.6 and the psychological $1400 mark,” said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures._
_Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG, said that he is watching initial support at $1,343 an ounce and a break of this level could push prices to $1,326 an ounce._
_*The Final Say…*_
_While the U.S. central bank and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will compete for the center stage next week, traders cannot ignore a full slate of economic data. Early in the week, markets will receive personal spending and income data along with the January consumer confidence report._
_Mid-week, markets will receive private-sector employment data as well as ISM manufacturing numbers._
_By Neils ChristensenFor Kitco News
_


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## alshangiti (2 مارس 2018)

*ditor's Note:*_ Gold and silver has been, at best, a frustrating trade. Exclusive to Kitco News, expert trader, Todd "Bubba" Horwitz, chief market strategist and founder of 'Bubba Trading provides a strategy investors can use in a range-bound gold price environment. *Sign up before March 10 for the Kitco News Weekly Rundown* newsletter to receive Horwitz's exclusive report and trading strategy._
*(Kitco News)* - *Gold *prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, on a bounce from strong selling pressure that on Thursday drove prices to a two-month low. Some safe-haven demand is featured to end the week, and a weaker U.S. dollar index on this day also favors the precious metals bulls. *April Comex gold* futures were last up $17.50 an ounce at $1,322.60.*May Comex silver* was last up $0.164 at $16.44 an ounce.
The big news late this week is Thursday’s surprising midday announcement from the Trump administration that the U.S. will slap a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. This news has spooked the marketplace on ideas the Trump moves could spark a worldwide trade war. The European Union has already said it will retaliate. Leaders of countries around the world sounded warnings about the Trump move on tariffs and asked the U.S. president to change his mind.
There is now a new dose of big uncertainty in the marketplace from the Trump tariff moves. Also, there are reports coming from inside the White House that Trump’s close advisors are squabbling to the point that some are likely to leave their jobs soon.
All of the above have prompted increased demand for safe-haven gold to end the week.





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There could also be some safe-haven demand for gold ahead of the Italian elections on Sunday that could see so-called “Euro Skeptics” make good gains in government offices.
In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for January came in at up 0.4% from December and up 1.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers came in very close to market expectations.
Bank of Japan governor Kuroda surprised the marketplace Friday by saying the BOJ will exit its current quantitative easing of monetary policy likely sometime in 2019.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the *U.S. dollar index* lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Thursday. Meantime, *Nymex crude oil* prices are near steady and trading just below $61.00 a barrel. Oil bulls are fading this week, amid growing U.S. oil production the past few months.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the ISM New York report on business and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.


​​​Technically, *April gold* futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A fledgling downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,342.90. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,330.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,316.20 and then at $1,309.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0


​​​*May silver* futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $17.04 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $16.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $16.565 and then at this week’s high of $16.785. Next support is seen at $16.34 and then at this week’s low of $16.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
By Jim WyckoffFor Kitco News


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## alshangiti (18 مارس 2018)

Although the probability of a rate hike at the conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting next week is extremely high, traders, analysts, and investors continue to have a wait-and-see attitude.
The countdown clock on the CME’s FedWatch tool currently reads: 4 days, 19 hours, 9 minutes and counting, as of 3:51 PM Eastern standard time today.
Currently, the probability that the Fed will announce a rate hike stands at 94.4%, according to this tool. The current estimate of 94.4% predicts a 25-basis point hike (1/4 %) which would take Fed funds rate from 125 – 150 to 150 – 175.
Moreover, there’s only a 5.6% probability that the current Fed funds rate will stay intact. This number is down considerably from the probability given from the FedWatch tool one month ago on February 16. At that time, it was indicated that there was an 18.3% chance that the Federal Reserve would stay the course in keeping interest rates where they are.
Last month this tool predicted an 81.7% probability that a rate hike would result from this month’s meeting.
The belief that an interest rate hike is inevitable, coupled with a consistent and strong risk-on environment favoring equities, a strengthening U.S. dollar, as well as a geopolitical environment that is relatively muted and calm, continue to pressure the safe haven asset group.



The net result of these factors is that gold continues to lose ground in its fourth consecutive week of lower pricing. Gold futures have lost approximately $10 in trading this week and are currently fixed at $1313.50, this basis most active April futures contract.
*An Ascending Bottom with Quadruple Top*
The last week in which gold closed higher was the week of February 12. During that week gold pricing hit an intra-week high, just shy of 1365, creating a double top. A case can be made by market technicians that, in fact, February’s top was the third occurrence, creating a triple top if you add last year’s rally in September which concluded at 1362.



But truly this price point has created a quadruple top when factoring in the most significant rally of the last three years. This rally began in 2015 and concluded during July and August 2016 with intra-week highs occurring at $1373 to $1378 on three separate occasions during that time.
The rally of 2016 was the most significant rally since the multiyear correction in gold which began after gold traded to its all-time high at 1900 during the middle of 2011.
The rally, which began in January of 2016, was the first occurrence of a higher high than the previous high. This gave technical evidence that the extended, multiyear correction had concluded.
Since that point, traders have witnessed gold pricing moving to higher ground as indicated by a series of higher lows. However, the highs achieved in 2016 have still been an unobtainable price point.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com


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## alshangiti (11 أبريل 2018)

Dissipating trade war fears will take attention away from gold and shine a light on silver, platinum, and palladium, according to the Hightower report prepared for RJO Futures.
“Heading into the second quarter of 2018, we see a shift in leadership away from gold and towards silver, platinum, and palladium, due to reduced safe-haven anxiety (off moderating trade war fears) and a revitalized U.S. dollar,” said the report published on Monday.
The industrial demand is likely to drive the metals, which are already sitting near the bottom of their trading ranges.
“Silver, platinum, and palladium could be in a better position to rally [than gold],” the report said, noting that the yellow metal is currently trading near the upper quarter of its trading range.
Silver could see the biggest jump here simply because the metal “could be considered fundamentally and technically undervalued” compared to gold after recently touching its lowest level in two years relative to gold.
“It should also be noted that the speculative crowd has all but vacated the long side of silver. A recent COT futures and options report showed that as of March 20th non-commercial and non- reportable traders were holding their smallest net long position since the COT started compiling the data,” the Hightower report said. “The reports also showed silver managed money traders were holding a record net short position of 39,604 contracts. This suggests that bearish sentiment could be reaching a zenith.”
The report projects for silver prices to climb above the 2018 highs of $17.75. The Hightower’s trading tip is to buy “May Comex silveron a break to $16.02; use an objective of $16.86; risk the position to $15.89.”



In contrast to silver, gold seems to be lacking a clear trigger that could jumpstart another rally in the second quarter, the report pointed out.
“It now appears that trade tensions are moderating, that U.S. rate hike prospects will support the Dollar, and that equity market volatility will moderate. Therefore, gold’s primary bullish force could dissipate,” it said. “April could see a decline in safe haven/currency-dominated interest in gold and a revival in classic, demand-driven interest in the industrial metals.”
By Anna GolubovaFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (11 أبريل 2018)

[h=1]Gold Prices Will Shine As Equity Rally Fades - Tocqueville[/h]Extreme volatility and lower equity markets will drive investors into gold throughout the rest of the year, according to one of the top gold fund managers.




For many analysts, the roaring gains of the equity markets were gold’s biggest competition in 2017 but John Hathaway, senior portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, said in his first quarter letter to investors that the tide is starting to shift and safe-haven assets like gold will now attract investor capital.
“We believe that 2018 will mark a significant turn in the financial markets, which will be adverse for conventional, consensus-based investment strategies and quite positive for gold and other safe-haven assets,” he said.
Ultimately, he said that he looks for gold to reach new highs this year, with possible gains of 50%; at the same time, he sees 100% gains for currently unloved mining stocks. June Comex gold futures last traded at $1,342.20 an ounce, up 0.16% on the day and up nearly 3% since the start of the year.



The most significant factor behind, Hathaway’s extremely bullish outlook are signs that the equity bull market is starting to fade. He noted that the S&P 500 ended the first quarter down more than 1.2%, as it saw a peak to trough decline more than 10%.
He added that continued volatility does not bode well for future equity market gains.
“We believe that the rise in market volatility underscores the precarious nature of market structure. The wild swings that have occurred year-to-date reflect, in our opinion, telltale tremors in the highly confident bullish consensus that existed only a few months ago,” he said. “We believe that the fallout will be more than just a gentle market correction that is easy for all to tolerate.”
Not only does gold shine in volatile financial market conditions, but Hathaway also noted that the market has been resilient in the face of three potential rate hikes this year.
Last month the Federal Reserve raised interest rates following its monetary policy meeting; however, it also signaled that it was in no hurry to raise rates faster than expected, leading to expectations of two more rates hikes later this year.
However, Hathaway noted that according to the gold market, this outlook could be a little too optimistic.
“Should bullion begin to trade above the 12-month range currently capped at around $1360, it will signify that the Fed’s dot plot is due for an overhaul. We write this note in anticipation that an overhaul of mainstream expectations is long overdue, and likely to occur in the remainder of calendar year 2018,” he said.
But it might not be completely easy sailing for gold investors in the short-term. He noted that the U.S. dollar, which looked a little oversold in the first quarter could be a barrier to gold in the near-term. However, he added that in the long-term he remains bearish on the greenback; increasing U.S. government debt and rising inflation pressures will eventually hurt the U.S. dollar, he said.
The Tocqueville Gold Fund currently holds more than $1 billion in precious metal assets.By Neils ChristensenFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (26 أبريل 2018)

Gold market moves to the East
 
_Lin Ting in Xiamen
Monday, April 23, 2018
China Daily _
 
*[BH note: It is more than fascinating that a communist country is taking the lead in developing the gold market, including making it easier for its people to buy gold. Considering its 1.3 trillion population, the implications on the price of gold could be staggering.]*

*Summit acknowledges China’s increasing role in shaping the future of the precious metal’s pricing and trading*




The Global Gold Market Summit 2018 gathered hundreds of industry heavyweights and professionals from more than 20 countries and regions. (PHOTO PROVIDED TO CHINA DAILY ASIA WEEKLY)


 
Led by China, the global gold market has moved from the West to the East, the CEO of the World Gold Council, Aram Shishmanian, told an industry forum on April 19.

And building on that position, China is assuming leadership in the world of gold, he said at the Global Gold Market Summit 2018 in Xiamen, East China’s Fujian province. “Your leadership, I have no doubt, will determine or help determine the structure and form of the evolving international gold market.”

The summit, the third of its kind, was organized by the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Xiamen Municipal People’s Government and gathered about 700 industry heavyweights and professionals from across the world.

Shishmanian noted that China was small in the gold industry 20 years ago but has gone through “spectacular transformation” — the result of a “very careful and deliberate strategy” supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank.

At its heart, he said, is the formation of the SGE, combined with a series of liberalization policies and steps that created the conditions necessary for what we see today. Unlike any other country in the world, the Chinese industry covers all aspects of the gold market.

Over the years, China has been markedly improving its well-coordinated and orderly market operations, with its modes of operations more diversified, market access expanded, liquidity improved, and pricing capability enhanced.

China has been the world’s largest gold producer, consumer, importer and processor, according to Song Xin, president of the China Gold Association.

“No matter whether in the production, processing and consumption of gold, or in related investment and transaction, we have the responsibility and capability in leading the healthy and harmonious development of the global gold market through international cooperation,” Song told the summit.

China saw its gold output decline 6 percent year-on-year in 2017 and drop nearly 3 percent in the first quarter of this year but still managed to keep its No 1 ranking in the world. Its consumption of gold, around 1,089 tons in 2017, was up by 9 percent. 

Shishmanian pointed out that apart from investment, mining and the exchange, China has been the world’s leader in patents using gold technology, “the single largest country by many multiples”. Song said Chinese mining enterprises have been exploring new technology to pursue sustainable development.

Yet global challenges abound, especially when China is at the crossroads, including fragmented mechanisms, impact on investment by narrow interest groups, and infrastructure too domestically focused. Shishmanian raised three fundamental questions to be answered: How can China’s domestic gold market be further strengthened; how can China’s trade links prepare and participate in the global integration; and how can the gold market support the globalization of the yuan.





(From left) Aram Shishmanian, CEO of the World Gold Council; JI Zhihong, director-general of the Financial Market Department of China; Jiao Jinpu, chairman, Shanghai Gold Exchange; Song Xin, president of the China Gold Association. (PHOTO PROVIDED TO CHINA DAILY ASIA WEEKLY)

Song also acknowledged that China’s efforts toward maintaining a healthy market have been met with increasing uncertainties in global trade disputes and geopolitical crises. 

He said China must help build up global market mechanisms for the gold market to develop healthily and harmoniously. While encouraging the regional market to go global, he said standardization of basic criteria and even some regulations for the industry should be enhanced and promoted for wider acceptance so that the whole industry can adapt to new changes. 

Moreover, there should be deeper cooperation among market players around the world, as all participants will be expanding links and integration to tap their own potential and achieve mutual benefits.

In his welcoming remarks in the morning, Jiao Jinpu, the SGE chairman, said the Shanghai Gold pricing has proven conducive to market health and the exchange is seeking further cooperation with global partners. It also inked a deal for strategic partnership with Moscow’s exchange on April 19. 

Jiao said the Shanghai exchange will follow the country’s opening-up policies closely and accommodate the needs of global gold market operators. 

The two-way opening-up of the gold market, flagged by the SGE, has drawn participants from outside the Chinese mainland while extending its role in the global mechanism, its pricing engaging more of the world’s businesses.

“Facing today’s complex situation, only constant reform and innovation can conform with the trend of the times,” Jiao said.

“An open path of internationalization should be followed,” he said. The SGE will stick to inclusive and balanced market operations, tap the potential of the international board and broaden international cooperation, especially with those in Dubai, Budapest, Malaysia and Myanmar, thus “bringing the gold market to a new era of openness”.

Jiao said the SGE will persist also in a path of marketization. Though there are still gaps with some Western exchanges, the Shanghai exchange will shift toward high quality development and be a pioneer in reforming its operations and services. It would expand yuan applications of Shanghai Gold and upgrade other precious metal trading.

Moreover, Jiao said the SGE will follow a regularized and sustainable path of development. To help prevent financial risks, the SGE will improve its membership structure, engage in efforts to fight against corruption, money laundering and tax evasion, and bring market standardization in line with sustainable mining businesses.

Orderly promotion of opening to the outside world will provide new and strong impetus to the country’s gold market, Ji Zhihong, director-general of the PBOC’s financial market department, told the forum.

In line with general guidelines on China’s opening-up, “we will continue to emphasize exchange and cooperation with markets from outside, further promote the opening of the gold market in a coordinated and orderly manner, tap more of the market vitality, and raise the quality of gold market operations”, Ji said.

“I believe the country’s gold market anticipates new space for development” due to China’s deepening of supply-side reforms, implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and expansion of foreign exchanges, Ji told hundreds of guests from over 20 economies.

The deepening reform of market operations also requires updated and efficient monitoring and self-discipline of market players, so that normal and healthy market order can be guaranteed, Ji noted.

Derek Sammann, senior managing director and global head of commodities and options products at Chicago-based CME Group, also saw China playing a prominent role in gold market pricing and trading. 

China’s rising demand has been in contrast to declines in Europe and North America, he said, and China’s engagement can better help the globalization of the gold market.

Executive Vice-Mayor of Xiamen Huang Qiang, while sharing the city’s opening-up experiences with guests at the forum, said Xiamen will contribute more to the new pattern of gold market development.

Also speaking at the summit were Les Male, CEO of the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange, the largest and most diversified derivatives exchange in the Middle East; Ruth Crowell, CEO of the London Bullion Market Association; a senior official from Russia’s central bank; and top executives of China Industrial Bank Co, Zijin Mining Group Co, Xiamen Gold Investment Co and Bank of Communications of China, among others.

Panel discussions at the summit also explored detailed prospects for the worldwide gold market and financial operations. 

On April 18, more than 100 people attended the 2018 International Members Conference of Shanghai Gold Exchange in Xiamen. Also held in the city was the SGE International Advisors Meeting. CEO of the exchange, Wang Zhenying, said it will strive to play a bigger role in the global market based on insights and experiences of the advisers.

Follow gold bullion product prices here

Follow silver bullion product prices here


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## alshangiti (26 أبريل 2018)

[h=1]old Unable to Hold onto Yesterday's Price Gains[/h]


Gary Wagner _Wednesday April 25, 2018 18:02_

_Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk_
_Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists._



_Commentaries & Views_
_Share this article:_


_Any hope for potential support and subsequent reversal in gold was short-lived as a strengthening U.S. dollar and a predominantly bearish sentiment took prices lower today. Gold futures are currently trading off by nine dollars to be fixed at $1,324 per ounce, a net decline of -0.67%._
_Except for palladium, precious metals are trading lower today across the board. Physical palladium is trading unchanged on the day. A decline of $4.30 due to a strengthening U.S. dollar was compensated entirely by buyers bidding up palladium by that exact amount._
_

_
_Gold, silver, and platinum were lower today. Platinum suffered the most significant drawdown to lose $21 of value today, a 2.26% decline. This decline was primarily due to selling pressure, which accounted for $16.90. The remaining $4.10 drop was because of dollar strength._
_

_
_Selling pressure in both gold and silver only counted for about 20% of today’s decline, with the remaining 80% attributable to dollar strength. Although multiple analysts look at today’s decline as a combination of rising rates and a stronger dollar, it is the rising rates that are the catalyst for dollar strength._
_In an interview with MarketWatch, Edward Meir, independent commodity consultant for International FCStone said that he believes gold “will have difficulty withstanding what we see as a rising trend in both the dollar and U.S. Treasury rates and see both pushing higher at least going into Friday’s key Q1 GDP reading.”_
_Higher interest rates can affect gold prices in both directions. First, as interest rates pick up, higher yields temper the appeal of a nonyielding asset class. At the same time, higher interest rates create greater inflationary pressures which can heighten interest in gold, which traditionally does well during periods of high inflation._
_

_
_*Gold Prices Near First Support Level*_
_Our Fibonacci based technical studies indicate two levels of support for gold. The first level of support (minor) is at $1,318 per ounce. Major support can be found at $1,303 per ounce, which matches the lows traded to on March 1._
_Resistance occurs at $1,336 which was the opening price for gold on Monday. Major resistance resides at $1,365, the brass ring in terms of gold pricing that continues to be unbreakable and unsustainable._
_For those who would like more information, simply use this link._
_Wishing you as always, good trading,_
_By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com
_


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## alshangiti (6 مايو 2018)

Today’s jobs report came in below expectations suggesting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates aggressively while maintaining a tightening of its monetary policy. This, along with renewed concern about a looming trade dispute between the United States and China, was supportive of gold pricing.
According to Business Day, “Senior Chinese and American officials concluded two days of negotiations late Friday afternoon with no deal and no date set for further talks, as the United States stepped up its demands for Chinese concessions to avert a potential trade war.”
This week’s discussions did little to dampen fears of an imminent trade war between the two largest economies, with both the United States and China threatening to initiate deep tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of each other’s exports.
Although gold is trading lower on the week, its recovery on Wednesday and Thursday indicate that a potential bottom occurred ending the most recent correction.
There was a confluence of technical indicators supporting this assumption. The lows gold traded to this week occurred at the 200-day moving average, which intersected with a 50% Fibonacci retracement. A Three River Morning Star was identified consisting of daily candles on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Today’s higher pricing creates a confirming candle to the Morning Star pattern.
Gold is trading modestly higher, up $2.20, with June futures currently at $1,314.90.



Dollar strength continued to provide headwinds limiting any substantial gains in the precious metals complex. Over the last 14 trading days, the dollar index has closed higher on 11 occasions. The U.S. dollar gained 2/10% today and is currently fixed at 92.44.
Our technical studies indicate strong support at $1,300. However, should that price point be breached, gold could trade as low as $1,288. The first resistance level occurs at $1,330, with major resistance at $1,365, a price point which gold has not been able to break above even after multiple attempts.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
By Gary WagnerContributing to *kitco.com*


[email protected]
www.thegoldforecast.com


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## alshangiti (6 مايو 2018)

Wall Street and Main Street both look for gold to continue its recovery next week, based on the Kitco News weekly gold survey.
Comex June gold this week fell as far as $1,302.30 an ounce, its weakest level of the year. Since, however, prices have ticked higher again. One widely anticipated event that occurred this week was a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in which interest rates were left unchanged and policymakers did not signal materially more aggressive future tightening. Meanwhile, an April jobs report that showed less-than-forecast payroll gains of 164,000.
Eighteen market professionals took part in the survey. Twelve respondents, or 67%, called for gold prices to rise over the next week. Another four voters, or 22%, looked for gold to fall, while two, or 11%, called for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 809 voters responded in an online Main Street survey. A total of 557 respondents, or 69%, predicted that gold prices would be higher in a week. Another 183 voters, or 23%, said gold will fall, while 69, or 9%, see a sideways market.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



67%
Bearish



22%
[COLOR=black !important]*Neutral11%*

VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



69%
Bearish



23%
[COLOR=black !important]*Neutral9%*[/COLOR]

[/COLOR]​For the trading week now winding down, 52% of Wall Street voters called for gold to fall, while 58% of Main Street respondents were bullish. As of 11:02 a.m. EDT, Comex June gold was down 0.9% for the week so far to $1,311.80 an ounce.
The smaller-than-forecast rise in April nonfarm payrolls should bode well for gold, says Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Futures Group. “Even though the overall jobless rate went down [to 3.9%], the headline weakness should allay fears the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive on interest rates in the future,” Flynn said.
Further, he added, geopolitical worries are likely to impact markets, particularly whether the U.S. backs out of the nuclear accord with Iran.
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, looks for gold to rise, with a potential trade war once again impacting markets. “We’re past the major worries we had with the Fed and jobs report,” Gero said.
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, looks for gold to trade higher since “it appears strong support at $1,300 is holding.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, figures gold can break above chart resistance around $1,315 next week, if it doesn’t do so before Friday’s trading is over.
“I still think the dollar is toppy,” he said. “Some of the trade talks [between the U.S. and China] weren’t that productive.”
Meanwhile, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, is one of the respondents who are bearish, citing gold’s break this week to a new low for the year and also the fact that prices remain just under the 200-day moving average. Expectations for higher U.S. interest rates will keep the market in check, he said. Grady also pointed to recent peaceful rhetoric on the Korean Peninsula, which takes away some safe-haven demand.
“We’re going to see some new shorts [bearish positions] coming into the market,” Grady predicted.
_Richard Baker_, editor of the Eureka Miner Report, looks for gold to test the bottom end of its trading range.
“Barring a political/geopolitical shock, it is unlikely that the yellow metal will sustain rally against a rising U.S. dollar, which made a new high for the year after the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll report this morning,” he said.
Baker later added: “On a positive, it appears the march of higher U.S. interest and inflation rates has stalled given comments by the Federal Reserve on inflation and an economy that added fewer jobs than expected. Rising U.S. deficits will establish a floor for gold prices, and it is likely that prices will stay in a range above $1,300 per ounce.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, is neutral unless gold breaks out of its trading range.
“I remain neutral on gold for next week as it remains in the $1,300-$1,360 range,” he said. “However, USD [U.S. dollar] is climbing despite soft payrolls, so if gold breaks $1,300 I would turn bearish.”

By Allen SykoraFor *Kitco News*


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## alshangiti (24 مايو 2018)

Gold will fall to $1,250 an ounce by the end of the year on stronger U.S. dollar, but the move will be a temporary one, as the precious metal is due for a rally in 2019, said one analyst at ABN Amro.
“I’ve been negative on gold for some time, so the drop below $1,300 was not surprising. Gold should go down to around $1,250 at the end of the year,” ABN Amro senior precious metals and diamond analyst Georgette Boele told Kitco News in an interview on Monday. “The relationship between gold and dollar is a very negative one at the moment.” 

Boele’s outlook, which is based on U.S. dollar short-term strength, is not a very bearish one either. “Very bearish would be below $1,200,” Boele said. “$1,250 is relatively close, it’s just a few percent away from where we are now.”
Boele views dollar’s recent rally as only a positive wave amid a longer-term dollar downtrend. “I still expect some upside in the coming months for the dollar — not massive, but a few percent. That is one of the main reasons why gold prices still have further to fall.”
The analyst also expects 10-year U.S. treasury yield to rise to 3.20% as well. “The combination of strong dollar with higher treasury yields is usually a very negative one for gold.”
The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has a lot to do with the U.S. treasury yields, the analyst pointed out.
“For quite some time, we had a situation that the dollar was not prospering from higher yields because of the political situation, which was weighing more heavily on the dollar. All the uncertainty on the geopolitical, and political side, as well as trade politics had a bigger impact on the dollar,” Boele said. “Now that those risks winded down, the dollar was able to recover. Since April the yield spreads started to become the dominate dollar driver again.”
The move below $1,300 an ounce in gold also made sense from a technical perspective, as gold failed to break out of the $1,300-$1,350 range for all of 2018, Boele added.
“We could end up temporarily below $1,250, but that will be an opportunity to buy,” she said. “It is only a near-term weakness.”
View image on Twitter

​

​


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## alshangiti (24 مايو 2018)

his morning’s release of the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting provided some upside momentum to move gold off this morning’s lows. After trading to a high of $1,298 in overseas trading last night, traders bid prices lower in morning trading taking gold to $1,287 per ounce.
This low remained up until the release of the minutes which indicated a less aggressive Fed then had been factored into market sentiment. The minutes suggested that a June rate hike was highly probable. They also used verbiage (symmetric 2%) which indicated a higher degree of latitude in regard to their inflation target of 2%.
The minutes indicated that the Fed would stay the course in terms of rate hikes this year, as well as in 2019. The minutes also reported that the criteria for determining rate hikes remain unchanged.
“Members agreed that the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would depend on their assessments of realized and expected economic conditions relative to the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. They reiterated that this assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”
*Gold’s Ascending Triangle Pattern*
This most recent bounce off the lows seen this week at 1,281 indicates that the most prevalent pattern in gold is still an ascending bottom and flat top, commonly called an ascending triangle. This pattern is a bullish continuation pattern identified in markets that are in an uptrend. It is created from a series of equal highs revealing strong resistance, in which corrections following each test of resistance are characterized by a higher low than the previous low.



On each higher low and retest of resistance, the market moves closer to the apex of the triangle. When the pattern completes, the price will break out above wedge by moving through resistance and trading to a new high. Following the break above resistance, that price point becomes a support level.



According to stock charts, a necessary component of this pattern is that a bullish trend has already developed. Because it is a bullish pattern, the length and duration of the trend are not as crucial as the robustness of the formation, which is paramount.
The rally began at the end of 2015 and took gold prices from $1,040 to $1,370 confirming the conclusion of a multiyear correction. This meets the criteria of an established trend.
If in the lows achieved this week hold, and prices move higher creating a higher low, the pattern would be in the final stages of completion, which would indicate an inevitable break above the major resistance in gold at $1,375 per ounce.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
By Gary WagnerContributing to *kitco.com*


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## alshangiti (29 يونيو 2018)

[h=1]There Is More Value For Silver Producers Than Just The Price - Mining Executive[/h]


Neils Christensen  *Friday June 29, 2018 11:30*




*Kitco News*
Share this article:







*Brad Thrall, president of Alexco Resource shows the entrance to the silver company's Flame & Moth underground project. The company expects production to start by the start of 2019*​
*(Kitco News) -* The silver market is struggling to gain traction as prices are at the bottom of their range near a six-month low, but there is growing optimism in Canada’s largest historic silver district.
In an interview with Kitco News, Brad Thrall, president of Alexco Resource (NYSE: AXU, TSX: AXR), said that the Canadian silver market is probably in better shape now than compared to the heydays of 2011 when global prices were at an all-time high of $50 an ounce.
He added that there is more to the value in the marketplace for silver producers than just the price of the precious metal.
“There are a lot of things that make the silver market comfortable for us,” he said.
Thrall explained that one of the most significant advantages of being a Canadian silver producer has been the price of the raw commodity in Canadian dollar terms. While silver priced in U.S. dollars is hovering below $16 an ounce, the Canadian price has been relatively stable, with prices hovering above $21 an ounce.



A second factor that is helping to support the silver market is rising zinc prices. Thrall added that although Alexco will always be a silver producer, the company also produces lead and zinc as by-products. While off its highs, zinc prices saw record highs at the start of the year as the market has been in a strong uptrend since January 2016. Zinc prices last trading at $1.33 per pound. 
The third factor supporting the silver market is smelter costs, said Thrall. Alexco, when it is back in production, will create a silver-lead-zinc concentrate that will be shipped to a smelter to be produced.
Thrall explained that smelters are desperate for raw material and as a result mining companies are seeing fees drop by more than one-third from previous years.
Currently, Alexco is in the final processes of permitting and Thrall said in a presentation that the company hopes to make a production decision before the end of the year.
“I think when you combine all these things, they make the market attractive, compared to looking at just the silver price,” he said. “There are certainly many factors we will look at before we make our production decision.”
While the U.S. silver price has been frustrating for investors, Thrall added that he thinks it is only a matter of time before the market enters a long-term uptrend as demand for the precious metal continues to grow and supply continues to decline.
Thrall added that once his company gets all the permits in place and makes a production decision, it won’t take long to get the mill up and running as the company has completed a lot of the preliminary work. If everything moves smoothly, the company could see new silver production by early 2019.
“The runway to production is going to be very short,” said Thrall.
Alexco halted its silver production in 2013 because of low silver prices and underused mill capacity. Since then, the company has been aggressively exploring and is close to identifying nearly 100 million ounces of recourse.
Alan McOnie, vice president of exploration, said that the Keno Hills Mining district also provides important value for the company. He noted that in 100 years, the region had produced more than 200 ounces of silver.
“There is still a lot of untapped potential in the district,” he said. “We are just scratching the surface.”
Alexco recently hosted a site visit as part of the joint initiative from the government of Yukon and the Yukon Mining Alliance to promote the territory’s growing resource secto



[h=1]There Is More Value For Silver Producers Than Just The Price - Mining Executive[/h]


Neils Christensen  *Friday June 29, 2018 11:30*




*Kitco News*
Share this article:







*Brad Thrall, president of Alexco Resource shows the entrance to the silver company's Flame & Moth underground project. The company expects production to start by the start of 2019*​
*(Kitco News) -* The silver market is struggling to gain traction as prices are at the bottom of their range near a six-month low, but there is growing optimism in Canada’s largest historic silver district.
In an interview with Kitco News, Brad Thrall, president of Alexco Resource (NYSE: AXU, TSX: AXR), said that the Canadian silver market is probably in better shape now than compared to the heydays of 2011 when global prices were at an all-time high of $50 an ounce.
He added that there is more to the value in the marketplace for silver producers than just the price of the precious metal.
“There are a lot of things that make the silver market comfortable for us,” he said.
Thrall explained that one of the most significant advantages of being a Canadian silver producer has been the price of the raw commodity in Canadian dollar terms. While silver priced in U.S. dollars is hovering below $16 an ounce, the Canadian price has been relatively stable, with prices hovering above $21 an ounce.



A second factor that is helping to support the silver market is rising zinc prices. Thrall added that although Alexco will always be a silver producer, the company also produces lead and zinc as by-products. While off its highs, zinc prices saw record highs at the start of the year as the market has been in a strong uptrend since January 2016. Zinc prices last trading at $1.33 per pound. 
The third factor supporting the silver market is smelter costs, said Thrall. Alexco, when it is back in production, will create a silver-lead-zinc concentrate that will be shipped to a smelter to be produced.
Thrall explained that smelters are desperate for raw material and as a result mining companies are seeing fees drop by more than one-third from previous years.
Currently, Alexco is in the final processes of permitting and Thrall said in a presentation that the company hopes to make a production decision before the end of the year.
“I think when you combine all these things, they make the market attractive, compared to looking at just the silver price,” he said. “There are certainly many factors we will look at before we make our production decision.”
While the U.S. silver price has been frustrating for investors, Thrall added that he thinks it is only a matter of time before the market enters a long-term uptrend as demand for the precious metal continues to grow and supply continues to decline.
Thrall added that once his company gets all the permits in place and makes a production decision, it won’t take long to get the mill up and running as the company has completed a lot of the preliminary work. If everything moves smoothly, the company could see new silver production by early 2019.
“The runway to production is going to be very short,” said Thrall.
Alexco halted its silver production in 2013 because of low silver prices and underused mill capacity. Since then, the company has been aggressively exploring and is close to identifying nearly 100 million ounces of recourse.
Alan McOnie, vice president of exploration, said that the Keno Hills Mining district also provides important value for the company. He noted that in 100 years, the region had produced more than 200 ounces of silver.
“There is still a lot of untapped potential in the district,” he said. “We are just scratching the surface.”
Alexco recently hosted a site visit as part of the joint initiative from the government of Yukon and the Yukon Mining Alliance to promote the territory’s growing resource secto


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## alshangiti (9 يوليو 2018)

After seeing a minor reprieve this week on slightly weaker U.S. dollar, the gold market’s main concerns are now the potential economic fallout from the escalating trade war rhetoric and the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike path.
“Uncertainty is the new normal,” RBC Capital Markets commodity strategist Christopher Louney told Kitco News on Friday.
For gold to really recover following last week’s major selloff, “actuality” of a trade war is required as opposed to just “risk,” Louney noted, explaining that markets turned their minds away from gold as a risk-off option while the U.S. dollar rallied.
“Gold struggled to rally on the back of risks like it has done in the past,” he said. “Now, [gold’s moves] depend more on the fallout of the trade war and less on whether there is one. But, the market is so far discounting what the actuality could be. If and when there is economic fallout, this is when you’ll see gold get the risk-off flows back. So far it hasn’t filtered through.”
Right now, the predominant view is that the trade war could end up being “some sort of storm in a teacup,” according to ING commodities strategist Oliver Nugent.



But, the trade tensions are starting to actualize, with the United States and China kicking off tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports on Friday.
Escalating things further, U.S. President Donald Trump talked about tariffs on $500 billion of Chinese goods, which equals to last year’s annual total of all U.S. imports from China.
“What will matter is any talk around trade, whether there is any further retaliation or new tariffs imposed,” said Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini.
Some economists see further trade tensions negatively impacting economic forecasts, which is beneficial for gold prices.
“The risk of a further escalation is real. The U.S. is looking at more tariffs on Chinese goods, said to cover a flow worth USD 200 bn, and tariffs on imported cars. It is not possible to identify where the point will be reached when economists will have to lower their growth forecasts specifically because of imposed tariffs,” said ABN Amro chief economist Han de Jong.
Brace For Global Economic Depression If Trade War Escalates - John Doody | #johndoody #gold #Trump #TradeWarhttps://t.co/utEZPjQNkw pic.twitter.com/48zViCiloJ
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) July 6, 2018​*U.S. Dollar In The ‘Driver’s Seat’*
The greenback continues to be the central driver for gold prices next week after taming its rally on Friday. The U.S. dollar index was last at 94.04, down 0.44% on the day.
“The U.S. dollar still remains squarely in the driver seat. But, as the market refocuses on exactly what the Fed rate hikes will look like and how hawkish the Fed will really be, there could be [a change in perceptions],” Louney stated.
The U.S. dollar rally has been stealing gold’s safe-haven allure, as investors look towards the greenback for safety amid trade tensions, Nugent pointed out, highlighting that it is key to observe how a potential full-blown trade war could impact global growth.
“The unexpected trade war scenario would be positive for gold because it will stop the safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar and revert them back to gold,” he said.
Nugent sees the U.S. dollar rally easing in the near-term, citing structurally bearish view and U.S. mid-term elections in November as headwinds.
SIA Wealth Management chief market strategist Colin Cieszynski also views the U.S. dollar rally as “running out of gas,” noting that there are no reasons for the greenback to go up or down.
“The U.S. dollar had a good run from April to June and is now settling into 93-95 range,” Cieszynski said. “In the spring you saw the ramp-up of trade tensions, and that got priced into the market. On the other hand of that, you’ve got the underlying economy that is strong and interest rates continue to rise towards 3%.”
What the market is seeing right now is gold bottoming after a major selloff and the U.S. dollar leveling off following a rally, according to Cieszynski.
Main St., Wall. St. Look For Higher Gold Prices https://t.co/vx5ApcEz5Z pic.twitter.com/ihZGMATrNZ
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) July 6, 2018​*Where Is Gold Headed?*
Louney is cautiously optimistic on gold, adding that there is an upside risk in RBC’s forecast as gold could regain its footing.
“I’m not super bullish. Our annual average for 2018 is at $1,310 an ounce and for 2019 at $1,350 an ounce.”
The current $1,255 an ounce level is a great entry point for long-term gold investors, added Louney.
“We’ve seen gold bounce off its lowest levels since 2017 and now back to $1,250s. There’s a lot of psychological support levels residing in this range,” he said. “Below $1,250 we get a lot of buying support.”
Nugent described a positive outlook on future gold price direction, stating that he sees the precious metal gradually climbing up.
“If we can break and sustain above $1,260, then gold could hold above that level next week,” he said.
Capital Economics projects downside risks to gold prices, calling for $1,300 an ounce at year-end and citing the Fed’s monetary policy, which is still not supportive of gold.
“Gold could well come below our expectations if trade tensions continue to escalate and the dollar continues to upshoot,” Gambarini said. “We expect a modest recovery in prices.”
According to Cieszynski, who remains neutral on gold next week, the precious metal is settling into a range.
“It looks stuck in a $1,240-$1,260 maybe $1,265 trading range. Neither the imposition of tariffs nor stronger U.S. nonfarm payrolls and trade data were able to kick the U.S. Dollar and gold into gear. This suggests to me that these forces are offsetting each other, keeping gold stuck in its current trading range,” he said in an email to Kitco News.
Around 3 p.m. EDT, Comex August gold futures were slightly up from last week, trading at $1,256.10 an ounce.
The yellow metal largely ignored two main datasets this week — the U.S. job numbers released on Friday and the Federal Reserve minutes from the June 12-13 meeting published on Thursday.
Gold prices were still trading under pressure at the end of this week, but are managing to hold on to the $1,255 level after U.S. nonfarm payrolls report beat market expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 213,000 positions in June, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4% from 3.8%.
Strong jobs data does hint of a more hawkish Fed, as it proceeds with another two rate hikes this year, said economists at Capital Economics.
“A strong U.S. nonfarm payrolls number for June underpins our view that the Fed is likely to raise rates two more times this year but did not have a significant impact on commodity prices,” economists wrote on Friday.
Gold, Silver Prices A Bit Weaker After Upbeat U.S. Jobs Data https://t.co/5ZLQ7Echzg pic.twitter.com/Kw1909rqU7
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) July 6, 2018​*Data To Watch*
Key data to keep an eye on next week is the U.S. inflation and the PPI reports scheduled for release on Thursday and Wednesday respectively.
“Next week we have some inflation data and PPI data. That will be important because inflation is a key measure that the Fed is looking at. If we have strong inflation data, some traders might start to add more bets that the Fed will be as hawkish as the dot plot suggests,” TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay told Kitco News.
Cieszynski also highlighted the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision on Wednesday, but noted that the announcement is not likely to impact gold prices in USD.
By Anna GolubovaFor Kitco News
Follow annagolubova

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www.kitco.com


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## alshangiti (9 يوليو 2018)

all Street and Main Street have both flipped from bearish to bullish short-term forecasts for gold prices, based on the Kitco News weekly survey.
Gold is headed for a small gain in a holiday-thinned week, with Canada Day and the U.S. Fourth of July both occurring in the same week. The metal held up Friday even though U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in slightly stronger than expectations, rising by 213,000 during June.
Sixteen market professionals took part in the survey. There were 11 votes, or 69%, calling for gold prices to rise. There were three votes, or 19%, calling for gold to fall, while two voters, or 12%, look for a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 808 voters responded in an online Main Street survey. A total of 449 respondents, or 56%, predicted that gold prices would be higher in a week. Another 231 voters, or 29%, said gold will fall, while 128, or 16%, see a sideways market.




[h=3]Wall Street[/h]Bullish



69%
Bearish



19%
Neutral12%




[FONT=&quot]VS
[h=3]Main Street[/h]Bullish



56%
Bearish



29%
Neutral16%

[/FONT]​For the trading week now winding down, the largest blocs of Wall Street (53%) and Main Street (46%) voters were bearish. Around 11 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up 0.1% for the week so far to $1,256.20 an ounce.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, sees potential for gold to rise to the 20-day moving average around $1,271 on ideas that the U.S. dollar may have put in a top. He also cited an “outside day” reversal higher for gold on a daily chart Monday.
“The dollar looks toppy to me,” he said, noting this fell below the 20-day average. “The jobs report should have been friendly for the dollar.”
Precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. currency.
“I’m looking for a little bounce,” said Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial. He cited the market’s ability to hold key chart support, including a double-bottom.
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management,
suggested the widening tariff war should support gold, as well as uneasiness with stocks, leading some to take a “hedge position in gold.”
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, looks for gold to start trying to regain its footing as long as market does not fall through the recent lows near $1,238, thus avoiding further technical-chart selling.
“If we hold, seasonal buying will start to creep in as we move through July,” Lusk said.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, predicted a bounce in gold after recent weakness that he said was largely due to a muscular U.S. dollar amid concerns about a trade war with China. By now, a trade war has already been factored into markets, at least to a certain extent, he continued.
“Now that the shots of the trade war have been fired, the markets will be less concerned,” he said. Further, he looks for physical demand for the metal to pick up and commented that the improving U.S. labor market could raise inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, sees weakness in gold due to dollar strength and a view that U.S. jobs report for last month was strong enough to support continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. He put support for gold around $1,230 to $1,231.
“Even with the trade wars, we see people running to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven,” Grady said. “That will hurt gold.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, said he views the charts as bearish.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, described himself as neutral on gold for now.
“To me, it looks stuck in a $1,240 [to] $1,260 maybe $1,265 trading range,” Cieszynski said. “Neither the imposition of tariffs nor stronger U.S. nonfarm payrolls and trade data were able to kick the U.S. dollar and gold into gear. This suggests to me that these forces are offsetting each other, keeping gold stuck in its current trading range.”
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
Follow [MENTION=474163]allen[/MENTION]Sykora

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## alshangiti (1 أغسطس 2018)

With a floor in gold prices more or less set just above the $1,200 an ounce level, a monster rally could be on the horizon, according to Mad Money’s Jim Cramer.
The large speculators in the gold space are great markers of sentiment and direction, CNBC’s Cramer said on Tuesday.
And the latest weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders Report, which shows how speculators are positioned, reveals that the large players have reduced their gold futures to the lowest level in years. 
“This chart shows you that the big-money speculators are pretty darned negative,” Cramer said. “And I think perhaps too negative on the yellow metal, which could be tinder for a big rally.”
Indeed, the last time the CFTC numbers were this low — December 2015 — gold kicked off “a monster rally,” Cramer pointed out.


“So this pervasive negativity is one reason why Garner [technician Carley Garner, the co-founder of DeCarley Trading] thinks that a bottom in the precious metal might be imminent.”
Garner believes that if the $1,200 floor in gold holds then the precious metal could begin to climb back to $1,350.
“No one's thinking this, and I wouldn't be surprised if she turns out to be dead right,” the host of Mad Money added.
Cramer suggested buying gold to diversify any portfolio as the yellow metal is a great hedge against many market risks out there.
“Let me give you the bottom line here: for those of you who are genuinely worried about inflation and trade policy and rising rates, and let's throw in the budget deficit, you don't need to dump your stocks,” Cramer said. “Instead, though, how about buying some gold as an insurance against economic chaos, perhaps via the GLD, the ETF that owns gold so you don't have to.”
TRADER TALK: All hope is not lost. Like all markets, the strong hands will change and #gold will rise again, but until then the only logical place to be is short or neutral and observing - @Bubba_Trading https://t.co/32Re6ymHhv pic.twitter.com/FEtfBWKplO
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) July 31, 2018​Logically, the yellow metal should be doing much better than its current $1,231 an ounce level.
“The price of gold still hasn't really reacted to the current trade war, or the exploding budget deficit — which a lot of you care about tremendously, of course — or even the recent uptick in inflation,” he continued. “With inflation on the rise and the government borrowing insanely high, you'd expect precious metals to become more popular on the Wall Street fashion show.”
This is why Cramer describes this time as "the single best time of year to bet on gold.”
So far, gold has had a very tough year and an especially brutal summer, with prices plunging 2.3% in the last 30 days and 9% in the last six months. December Comex gold futures were last seen trading at $1,230.70, down 0.24% on the day. 
By Anna GolubovaFor Kitco News
Follow annagolubova

[email protected]
www.kitco.com


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## alshangiti (6 أغسطس 2018)

[h=1]News Bites[/h]

[h=1]Be Ready For Gold’s ‘Bullish Wave’ — Analyst[/h]


Anna Golubova _Sunday August 05, 2018 19:48_




_Kitco News_
_Share this article:_


_



*(Kitco News) -* Struggling gold prices will soon see better days, with a bullish wave projected to bring about as high a level as $1,370 this year, according to one analyst.
“At the present juncture, sentiment in the gold market looks excessively bearish, which is unsustainable,” Metal Bulletin precious metals analyst Boris Mikanikrezai wrote in a Seeking Alpha post on Friday.
Spot gold prices tumbled almost 9% in the last six months. And on Friday, the prices nearly hit the $1,200 level. The December Comex gold futures also had a tough few months, last seen trading at $1,222.90, down 0.02% on the day, after hitting a 12-month low on Friday.
Despite this major drop, the yellow metal has been one of the most resilient trading options within the precious metals space, Mikanikrezai noted.
“In the second half of the year, I expect a strong rally in gold prices and gold-mining equities as the macro backdrop for the precious metals complex should prove more positive,” the analyst wrote.



The evidence behind the expected turnaround in gold is in the excessively stretched gold's spec positioning on the short side, according to the note.
“[This] suggests that a reversal may be imminent. In my view, bears are playing with fire at this juncture, and some of them are on the verge to get burnt,” Mikanikrezai said.
Fund managers increased their net bearish positioning in gold futures, according to the most recent weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 
The CFTC’s “disaggregated” report showed that managed-money accounts upped their net-short position in gold futures to 36,422 contracts from 26,449 the week before. Total shorts rose by 12,447 lots and outpaced the fresh buying, with the latter reflected by an increase of 2,474 gross longs.
These numbers point to a reversal, which could lead to a surge is spot gold prices, added Mikanikrezai.
“According to my estimates, a mean-reversion process, whereby the net spec length (currently at -103 tons tons) converges toward its long-term average (+325 tons), would produce an increase of $149 per oz. in the spot gold price. This means that gold prices could reach $1,374 per oz. at some point this year, corresponding to an increase of 13% from current price levels (~$1,221/oz.),” he explained.
Is A Monster #Gold Rally Just Around The Corner? @jimcramer's Charts Show Bottoms Are In https://t.co/TPm6ry193Apic.twitter.com/h7CBObdXCD
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) August 5, 2018​The U.S. dollar has played a big role in pushing gold prices down and it will continue to have a major impact throughout the year, the note pointed out.
“We have a mixed macro backdrop for gold where the positive impact from the dollar weakness is offset by the negative impact from higher U.S. real rates,” Mikanikrezai said.
The important thing to highlight here is that Mikanikrezai projects to see only limited U.S. dollar gains in the short-term.
“It's worth noticing that the dollar's spec positioning has become quite long due to strong speculative buying in the past six weeks,” he said. “Consequently, there is less room for long positions to build in the dollar, which should cap the USD appreciation. This could prompt speculators and ETF investors to jump back in on the long side of the gold market through physical and mining equities, which have plunged to fresh 2018 low
_


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## alshangiti (24 أغسطس 2018)

Gold prices have pushed to session highs at the critical psychological level of $1,200 following weaker than expected manufacturing data.
Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders dropped by $4.3 billion or 1.7% to $246.9 billion, in July, missing expectations. Consensus forecasts were calling for a decline of 0.7%.
Core durable goods, which strips out the volatile transportation sector was also weaker than expected, increasing 0.2% last month. Consensus forecasts were calling for a 0.5% increase. June's core data was also revised down to a rise of 0.2%.
Gold prices had been trending higher through the early morning session after holding support around $1,190 an ounce overnight. December gold futures last traded at $1,200 an ounce, up 0.50% on the day.


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## alshangiti (24 أغسطس 2018)

Gold fell back again on Thursday to hover just above 20-month lows as the US dollar rebounds and equity investors celebrate the longest bull run in Wall Street history.
December futures trading in New York declined 1% to $1,190.50 a troy ounce, ending a four day winning streak. The price of the metal is down more than 7% year to date.
Rate hikes, low inflation, the strong dollar and buoyant stocks have sapped investor appetite for goldRate hikes, low inflation, the strong dollar and buoyant stocks have sapped investor appetite for gold.
Gold is trading at its lowest relative to S&P 500 Index futures since the start of the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 and the trickle of outflows from gold-backed ETFs have turned into a torrent.
Nowhere is the negative sentiment more evident than on derivatives markets where investors and speculators seemed to have lost all confidence in gold's ability to move higher.
According to the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data up to August 14, investors (non-commercial traders) are now short 215,467 lots, the equivalent of 670 metric tonnes.




Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, ANZ Research

In a research note ANZ, a bank, points out that the short position (bets that gold will be cheaper in future) is the highest since data was first collected by the CFTC in 1993.
It's also the first time since 2001 that investors have entered a net short position (gross shorts exceeding gross longs).
ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari say in the past, "such extreme levels of short positions have led to a rally in prices":
1999, short positions rose fivefold to hit a then record level of 80,000 contracts. Not long after, gold prices rallied 16% from USD250/oz to USD290/oz over the course of two months.
Short positions spiked again in July 2005 and January 2016, with gold prices rallying 12% and 14% respectively over the subsequent three months. In both these cases, the net long position was extremely close to being negative.
This raises the spectre of investors closing out their record level of short positions, and thus starting a short covering rally.​




The CFTC started breaking out the data by type of investor in 2006 and the net position of so-called money managers – mostly hedge funds and other large scale speculators – is also at a bearish record of more than 200 tonnes.
[h=3]Quiet on the western front[/h]The World Gold Council in a report released Wednesday provides more ammunition for gold bulls.
The industry body says while net shorts were more prevalent in previous decades, there have been structural changes including expansion of central bank reserves, miner de-hedging and the lower opportunity cost of holding gold that "make these positioning levels different and likely short lived".
Another factor in gold's favour is apparent investor complacency on stock markets and volatility in the gold price at a 17-year low despite a long list of geopolitical worries, threats of an emerging market meltdown and an intensifying global trade war.
Gold's status as a safe harbour in times of trouble has been severely dented in recent years. It may yet reclaim that reputation.


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## alshangiti (27 أغسطس 2018)

or some commodity analysts, this could be the perfect time to buy gold as it looks like U.S. monetary policy will be less supportive of the U.S. dollar going forward.
Gold’s four-month downtrend appears to have come to a halt following what economists are describing as neutral to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The yellow metal is seeing its best weekly gains since late-March, ending a six-week losing streak. December gold futures last traded at $1,213.5 an ounce, up more than 2% from the previous week.
Gold appears to be leading the pack as silver continues to underperform in the precious metals pace. September silver futures last traded at $14.795 an ounce, up more than 1% since last Friday.
Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, said that he has turned outright bullish on gold and looks for momentum to push prices to $1,250 an ounce before it starts to fade again. He added that his firm is recommending to their clients to go long gold aggressively and to monitor the position closely.


“This is the move in gold we have been waiting for,” he said. “We are telling clients to buy as much gold as they are comfortable with and then we continue to ask ourselves on an hour-by-hour, day-by-day basis: is the trading doing what it’s supposed to do? As soon as that answer is “I don’t know,” is when you start reducing your position. However, until then we press this market.”
*Monetary Policy Expectations Are As Good As It Gets*
Gold’s new rally was sparked after Powell provided little new guidance on future monetary policy. While he said that the U.S. economy has strengthened substantially, he was relatively neutral on the current pace of monetary policy.
He noted that “there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating.”
David Madden, market strategist at CMC Markets, said that this could be as good as it gets for U.S. monetary policy. He added that he saw the speech as “putting the brakes” on monetary policy expectations.
“The message was: everything is steady as she goes and that could be good for gold,” he said. “I think because of the strong economy, markets were expecting to see something more hawkish.”
Simon Derrick, managing director of BNY Mellon, said that the latest comments from the head of the U.S. central bank add to an already shaky environment for the U.S. dollar. He added that the comments could signal a peek in the U.S. dollar and a bottom in gold prices.



*Investors Are Just Waiting For The Spark To Ignite A Gold Rally*
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said it is going to take a material change in the U.S. dollar expectations to push gold prices higher. However, he added that when it happens, there won’t be much to stop the yellow metal from propelling higher.
He explained that historical high bearish speculative positioning in gold represents the markets most significant factor that will drive prices higher.
“There is the potential for a $50 rally out there in the marketplace,” he said. “I think $1,210 is the nut that needs to crack that will really push prices higher.”
While many investors see critical resistance at $1,250 an ounce, some note that $1,236 is the first hurdle that needs to be crossed.
*Cracks Starting To Appear In U.S. Economy*
Not only is the Federal Reserve starting to move to a more neutral stance on monetary policy but some economists are beginning to highlight growing weakness in the U.S. economy.
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, noted that as of Thursday, 14 economic reports so far this month have missed expectations.
With the home sales and Markit PMI weakness, we now have 14 economic indicators for August miss expectations, 5 beat and 3 in-line. Here we have nearly 3 misses for every beat, and yet the bullish chatter on the economy shows no signs of abating. Welcome to the Flat Earth Society
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) August 23, 2018​Supporting the uncertain economic outlook, Hansen said that he is paying closer attention to the Citi Surprise Index. The latest data shows that U.S. economic data is deteriorating, while European economic data is strengthening, he said.
Hansen added that the narrowing divergence between the two economies could support the euro against the U.S. dollar, which would help gold prices.
Some economists have noted that while the U.S. economy has enough momentum to support two more rate hikes this year, the outlook is a lot more uncertain heading into 2019. Currently, markets are pricing in a more than 90% chance of a rate hike in September and a more than 60% chance of a fourth rate hike in December.
However, the market sees a 50% chance of one rate hike by September 2019.
Adding to growing unease is the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Madden said that while global trade issues have not hindered U.S. economic growth just yet, it’s an issue that investors can’t ignore. The longer global trade issues hang around, the bigger the risks they will have on the U.S. economy, he said.
*The Final Say*
Investors will continue to digest Powell’s comments from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, but they will also need to pay attention to a steady stream of economic data.
The week kicks off with consumer confidence data and then is followed up by the second reading of U.S. GDP for the second quarter. The first reading showed economic growth of 4.1%. Thursday markets will also receive essential inflation data.
By Neils ChristensenFor Kitco News
Follow neils_C


www.kitco.com


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## alshangiti (14 أكتوبر 2018)

Gold had one of its most dynamic days yesterday as it opened below $1,200 per ounce and closed $30 higher, settling at $1,227 per ounce. Today gold prices have retreated slightly, giving back a measured portion of yesterday’s gains.
As of 4:35 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures are currently down $6.30, with the most active December Comex contract fixed at $1,221.30.
Yesterday’s strong uptick and price gains were a result of a falling U.S. equities market and dollar weakness. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 5%, declining by 1,300 points.



Today the Dow has gained back 1.15% as it traded 287 points higher, closing at 25,339.99. The NASDAQ composite gained 2.29% in trading today with a gain of 167 points. The tech-heavy composite index is now at 7,496.89.


The dollar index also recovered slightly gaining almost a quarter percent and is currently fixed at 94.935, after adding today’s gains of +0.229 points.
Dollar strength, a rebounding U.S. equities market, and the upcoming meeting between the presidents of both the United States and China in November has resulted in gold having a mild round of profit-taking to close out the week.
*What can we take away from this week’s wild upside move and today’s measured retracement?*
First and foremost, for the first time in quite a while, we saw gold act as a traditional safe haven asset along with bonds. The flight from equities to gold was extremely short-lived. However, it confirmed one of the primary conventional intrinsic components of gold: its role as a safe haven asset.



Secondly, on a technical level, yesterday’s strong price advance took current pricing above $1,200, a key psychological level of either resistance or support, and more importantly above the 50- day moving average. The last occurrence of gold closing above its 50-day moving average was on April 20.
Lastly, yesterday’s strong gains took gold prices above the .618% retracement which is currently at $1,217.60. This retracement is from an extremely long data set beginning at the end of 2016 when gold was trading at $1,124 per ounce, up to this year’s record highs at $1,369 per ounce.
Although today gold lost some of yesterday’s gains, it still is effectively trading above the 0.618% retracement. Based on our technical studies we are currently putting support at $1,218 with major support at $1,200 per ounce.
We see the current level of resistance at 1,240 to 1,246 which is based upon the 50% retracement as well as lows seen in December of last year.
Most importantly yesterday’s dynamic upside move resulted in gold trading out of its defined and narrow trading range for the first time since August. If gold can effectively continue to trade above $1,218 per ounce, it could move to higher ground. 



If gold does move higher over the next couple of weeks, it will confirm that this week’s move above the 50-day moving average is signaling an end to the long and extended correction as market sentiment shifts back to a bullish demeanor.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com
Follow [MENTION=538922]gary[/MENTION]swagner

[email protected]
www.thegoldforecast.com


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## alshangiti (29 أكتوبر 2018)

Gold futures finished the day with moderate gains, as the most active December Comex contract closed $3.80 higher at $1,236.20. Although gold prices finished higher on the week, after gaining approximately $ 6.00, price advances were limited once again by dollar strength.
That being said, gold prices have managed to increase in value now for the fourth consecutive week. Another noteworthy characteristic this week was the intra-day high of $1,246 that was hit in trading today. Today’s high matched up precisely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement which is at $1,246.40. This price point has now defined current price resistance. The former resistance which occurred at the 0.618% retracement ($1,217.00) has now become a critical area of support.
On Monday, gold pricing opened just at the 100-day moving average and closed slightly lower on the day. On Tuesday, gold exhibited a brisk upside move closing above the 100-day moving average for the first time since the end of April.
Market technicians utilize three distinct moving averages with the time cycles of 50, 100, and 200 days to determine if a commodity is trending on a short, intermediate, or long-term cycle. When a commodities price trades below all three moving averages, it is believed that the market is in a bearish trend.





To identify a key reversal in a market that has been in a defined bearish trend, it first needs to break and close above the shortest-term moving average, the 50-day. A close above this moving average offers the technician evidence that a market has pivoted and has now entered a short-term bullish trend.
That event occurred on October 11 in gold, when prices surged over $30 in a single day and effectively closed above gold’s 50-day moving average.
This week gold pricing reached another milestone when on Tuesday, October 23, gold prices traded and closed above the 100-day moving average. This indicates a real potential for the current short-term trend to become an intermediate trend. This is a strong indication that gold prices will move higher next week.
The next major milestone for gold’s current trend would occur if and when pricing moves and closes above the 200-day moving average, signaling that the current rally in gold has matured into a long-term trend.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading


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## alshangiti (26 نوفمبر 2018)

ENGALURU, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices were little changed on Monday with investors looking to a G20 meeting this week for signs of a thaw in the Sino-U.S. trade conflict, although a stronger dollar amid fears of a slowdown in global growth weighed on bullion.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold was little changed at $1,222.36 per ounce at 0114 GMT.
* U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,223.3 per ounce.
* The dollar rose versus its major peers on Monday, as investors sought shelter in safe-haven currencies.


* Asian shares were on a slippery slope as plunging oil prices fanned worries about a dimming outlook for the global economy.
* Officials from some G20 countries, anxious to see a swift end to the U.S.-China trade war, are hopeful but not confident that a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina may yield at least a partial ceasefire. The two-day summit ends on Dec. 1.
* China on Friday urged the World Trade Organization (WTO) to close loopholes and correct practices by some member states that damage global trade, warning of a “profound crisis” facing the institution’s existence.
* European Union leaders finally sealed a Brexit deal on Sunday, saying the package agreed with Prime Minister Theresa May was the best Britain will get in a warning to the British parliament not to reject it.
* Euro zone business growth has been much weaker than expected this month as a slowing global economy and the trade war have led to a sharp fall in exports, a survey showed on Friday.
* Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini hinted on Sunday at the possibility of tweaking the country’s deficit goal for next year, a move that could open a negotiation between Rome and Brussels to avoid a disciplinary procedure against Italy.
* U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter on Friday that he was quite happy with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s performance, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the president was dissatisfied with Mnuchin.
DATA AHEAD (GMT)
0900 Germany Ifo business climate Nov
1330 U.S. National activity index Oct
1400 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi addresses the European Parliament
1530 U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index Nov (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru Editing by Joseph Rad


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## alshangiti (10 ديسمبر 2018)

Gold prices are holding double-digit gains and have pushed to a nearly five-month high in afternoon U.S. trading Friday. Another big sell off in the U.S. stock market this afternoon is lending safe-haven demand to the gold market. The technical posture for the gold market has also improved markedly recently, to suggest more upside price action for the yellow metal in the near term. February gold was last up $10.90 an ounce at $1,254.50.


​​​By Jim WyckoffFor Kitco News


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## alshangiti (16 ديسمبر 2018)

*ditor's Note:*_Kitco News has officially launched Outlook 2019 - Rush To Safety – the definitive reference for precious metals investors for the new year. We chose this year’s theme as financial markets face growing uncertainty. With volatility on the rise, how do you protect yourself? *Click here daily to see updated content.*_


​​​*(Kitco News) -* After a disappointing year, gold is looking to recover and make new gains in 2019, with the help of a dovish Federal Reserve, according to analysts, who are not ruling out a pause in the rate-hike cycle next year.
Gold prices kicked off 2018 on a positive note, with futures nearing $1,400 an ounce back in January and hitting a yearly high of around $1,385. A few months after, however, the yellow metal began a prolonged decline, dropping around 14% from the peak.




The end of the year has been gracious to gold, with the February Comex gold futures last trading at $1,250, up 0.22% on the day, but still down 7% on the year.


The biggest obstacle for gold prices this year was the strong U.S. dollar, which has taken safe-haven attention away from the precious metals.
“The stars haven’t really been aligned for gold this year. For most of the year, you had this ongoing U.S. dollar strength playing through. We’ve had bouts of volatility, which I quite like for gold, but the U.S. dollar hasn’t sold off,” Pepperston head of research Chris Weston told Kitco News.
But, the good news for gold is that things look very different next year, analysts pointed out, commenting that the U.S. dollar has likely peaked in 2018 and the yellow metal is expected to trade north of the critical $1,300-an-ounce resistance level next year.
*Bulls, Bears, Base-Case Scenarios*
While analysts’ projections varied from bearish to bullish, the majority of the outlooks said that gold will perform better next year.
From the bullish perspective, Weston said that for gold to surge beyond the $1,300 level, the market must see a “holy trinity” of catalysts come together — weaker U.S. dollar, lower U.S. inflation-adjusted real yields, and volatility in the equity space. “If we get that, gold is going to have a very nice place to be in 2019,” he said.
Gold is “the-best-of-the-rest” type of investment for Weston, who highlighted that all G10 currencies could look unattractive next year. “There’s nothing that really stands out as your go-to safe-haven place. And that suggests that gold could do well,” Weston said.
Pepperston’s bullish outlook is a surge to $1,500 an ounce, the base-case scenario is a climb to $1,350 an ounce by the fourth quarter of next year, and the bear case is gold trading between $1,250 and $1,200.
Somewhere in the middle of the bullish scale is London Capital Group head of research Jasper Lawler’s forecast, which calls for gold to rise back up over the $1,300 level by mid-2019 and then climb higher and break through the $1,375 level.
“More generally risk-off environment, a pullback in the dollar, and solid physical demand for gold should all be enough to keep it going,” Lawler said.



The majority of the analysts Kitco News spoke to were not optimistic when talking about the U.S. economy and stocks in 2019, which means more good news for gold.
“In 2019, we’ll be seeing a slowdown in U.S. economy, a slowdown in the equity market, and continued geopolitical risk,” noted Refinitiv director of metals demand Cameron Alexander. “We’ve been through a period of such bullish equity growth that it probably can’t continue to go on at that level. There will likely be more apprehension and a bit more risk-off sentiment, with people starting to re-direct to other asset classes that offer more protection.”
Refinitiv’s projection for next year is much more subtle, with gold averaging $1,285 an ounce.
An even a more conservative estimate came from Westpac global head of market strategy Robert Rennie. Despite seeing a short period of strength for gold at the beginning of next year, with prices rising to $1,255-$1,260, Rennie projects the yellow metal will retreat back down to $1,180 an ounce by the middle of 2019.
“Essentially gold will remain largely in the range that we’ve seen in the last 6-8 months,” Rennie said. “The only one thing that concerns me is the lack of pickup in gold volatility. This suggests that traditional safe havens are not operating as safe havens. That is why I have a relatively conservative near-term forecast for gold.”
Out of all the bank forecasts Kitco News has reviewed, the most bullish one comes from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which projects a rise in gold prices to $1,400 in 2019. Meanwhile, the most bearish forecast, penned by BNP Paribas, calls for gold to fall below $1,200 an ounce.
CPM Group Sees Gold Averaging Near $1,300/Oz In 2019 https://t.co/f6b53SW7I2 #kitconews #gold #silver #mining#preciousmetals #finance #economics #markets
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) December 14, 2018​*Watching The Fed And The U.S. Dollar*
A large part of future U.S. dollar moves will depend on the level of hawkishness or dovishness of the Federal Reserve.
After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement at the end of November about the central bank’s rate increases approaching a neutral level, the market began to revise its hike expectations for next year.
“We’re getting close to the end of the monetary policy tightening cycle. We saw the Fed chair come out and say that we are getting close to that neutral position. And this sentiment has been reinforced by the market players,” Alexander said.
Currently, the Fed funds rate is at a target range of 2-2.25%, with another rate hike already priced in for the December meeting as well — likely bringing the interest rate to the 2.25-2.5% range, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Next year, however, analysts expect the Fed to slow down and “err on the side of dovishness,” said Kitco’s global trading director Peter Hug.
“It appears that a lot of analysts are now indicating that the Fed will be much more dovish coming into 2019 … which should be negative for the U.S. dollar and in that context we are bullish for gold, at least in the first quarter of 2019. Expect gold to be north of $1,300 in Q1,” Hug said.
The Fed itself is estimating at least three rate hikes next year, which markets are beginning to doubt in light of weaker U.S. economy projected for 2019.
“The Fed will be a little hesitant to raise rates too early. There will be a period of allowing the December hike to settle to see the impact it might have had on economic growth,” Alexander said.
The U.S. economy is expected to slow by the middle of next year, which is likely to make the Fed even more dovish, analysts added.
“We are at a tipping point. It might come in the next couple of quarters or it may be in the next four or five quarters. But, we are getting close to the end of the growth cycle,” Alexander said. “The Fed will be a bit more apprehensive about going too early too hard.”
Since Fed decisions will be data-dependent next year, the exact number of rate hikes to expect is becoming more difficult to predict, according to Rennie, who projects only two more hikes in 2019.
“We are expecting the Fed to carry on hiking through March and June of next year,” Rennie said. “The closer we get to the neutral rate, the more difficult the forecasting gets …. Will the Fed pause at the bottom end of the neutral rate, or the middle, or the top? And that is the difficulty when forecasting for 2019.”
The neutral rate the Fed is targeting at the moment is around 2.75-3.25%, Rennie noted, identifying it as a range where the Fed will simply have to pause. “And that pause could be a lengthy one,” he said.
One final thing to consider when looking at the Fed is the growing divergence between the central bank’s and market’s perceptions when it comes to the U.S economy, Pepperston’s Weston pointed out.
“We are getting to that point where we could see a policy mistake from the central bank. The market is saying that the Fed should end its policy tightening soon. But, at the same time, with unemployment in the U.S. is expected to hit 3.5% next year and, core inflation continuing to be strong, the Fed will likely want to keep its foot on the pedal,” Weston explained.
If the central bank gets it wrong and the market realizes a policy mistake, the U.S. dollar will get “whacked and volatility is going to creep up in a big way,” Weston noted, highlighting that the safest place for investors in 2019 will be in gold.
Gold should once again be the default safe haven asset of 2019https://t.co/nmIr8oGKfk@DanielaCambone @rjofutures #gold#safehaven #flighttosafety #Outlook2019 pic.twitter.com/FBnzWFZHUy
— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) December 13, 2018​*Geopolitical Tensions Still In The Mix*
Rising geopolitical tensions across the world will also offer support to gold next year, with U.S.-China trade war tensions, Brexit, the Italian financial crisis and the Middle East still playing a key role throughout 2019.
Next year will begin with U.S.-China trade developments as the two countries agreed to a 90-day truce on Dec. 1 to iron out a possible trade deal.
“The trade discussions with China is one big factor for gold,” said Alexander. “If they can’t come to a solution and the U.S. does raise tariffs, it will be negative for gold because it will strengthen the U.S. dollar. Conversely, if they do come to an agreement, then it plays into gold’s hands.”
Some analysts were confident that a U.S.-China agreement is not in the cards at all next year. “I still operate of a belief that the U.S. will continue this trade war with China. What we saw at the G20 meeting was simply a period of negotiation,” said Rennie.
“The trade war that we are fighting here (U.S.-China) is all about acts, policies, and practices of foreign governments that U.S. feels violate international trade agreements. Ultimately, we will move to a period where pretty much everything that U.S. imports from China will be tariffed somewhere between 10-25%,” he explained.
From the European issues, Brexit will still be a problem for markets in 2019, but not a significant driver for gold like in 2016, according to Alexander. “In terms of Brexit, it is still a factor because it still generates uncertainty,” he said.
*Gold Demand In 2019*
Analysts were also largely optimistic about the demand for gold in 2019, pointing out that more investors will be shifting their assets toward safe-haven options like the yellow metal.
“During the last couple of years, we’ve seen funds redirected to higher-yielding assets, in particularly the stock market. We started to see that unwind a little bit now,” said Alexander.
Gold is already seeing higher prices in December, which is partly due to investors reassessing their portfolios. “We expect that to be a bit of a driver looking forward into 2019. We see an increase in the ETF activity as people start to redirect some of their funds,” Alexander said.
In terms of physical demand, there should be a modest recovery in China — the largest gold consumer in the world, while demand in India will likely remain under pressure, said Alexander.
“With China, we turned the corner after consistent declines in gold consumption since 2013. We’ve seen a slight recovery in jewelry demand in China this year. And we will possibly see the same next year,” he said. “India is going to depend on what the gold price does. If we have slightly higher prices, it will play back to weaker U.S. dollar and more strength in the rupee.”
Official government purchases of gold will continue to increase next year, following substantial gains this year, added Alexander. This trend points to diversification away from holding the U.S. dollar, he said. “Russia is a big player in that market and they are trying to diversify. They don’t want to be holding all their eggs in one basket.”
In 2018, the big players have been Russia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan, buying up a total of 148.4 tonnes of gold during the third quarter of 2018, according to the World Gold Counc


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## alshangiti (7 يناير 2019)

[h=1]Gold Trades Under Pressure as Risk-On Market Sentiment Returns[/h]


Gary Wagner _Friday January 04, 2019 18:55_

_Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk_
_Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists._



_Commentaries & Views_
_Share this article:_


_A one-two combination of an extremely strong jobs report coupled with statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resulted in market sentiment taking a 180° turn from extreme bearish sentiment to extreme bullish sentiment in regard to U.S. equities._
_After experiencing over a 600-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday, the Dow recovered briskly today as it gained 746 points and closed at 23,433.16._
_

_
_Jerome Powell, in a panel discussion which was held in combination with Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, said that the central bank would be “patient” to see how the economy evolves given conflicting signals from the market and economic data. His statements also suggested that the markets are pricing in downside risk which is “well ahead of the data.”_
_These statements occurred in conjunction with an extremely strong and robust U.S. jobs report which indicated that 312,000 jobs were added last month. These numbers were far in excess of any estimates by the analysts who were forecasting that 182,000 new jobs were added last month._


_The jobs report clearly indicated that the economic environment was much stronger than anticipated and the likelihood that the United States is moving into a recession is greatly reduced based on figures released by the Labor Department today._
_Although the U.S. dollar was slightly weaker today, trading off by 0.12%, gold and silver prices suffered. Gold prices saw their largest decline in the last two weeks as a result of strong numbers in the jobs report coupled with Chairman Powell statements._
_Gold futures lost $8.10, with the most active Comex February contract closing at $1,286.70. This occurred after reaching the highest trading point since July 15 of last year, when on an intraday basis gold prices ran to $1,300.40 per ounce. Gold pricing has been on a defined and robust uptrend since the middle of November._
_

_
_In November 2018, gold prices actually traded just below $1,200 per ounce before staging a robust recovery which has lasted up until today. Even with today’s price decline, gold prices are trading well above its 200-day moving average which is currently at $1,255.30. This strongly suggests that, on a technical basis, gold continues to be in a long-term bullish trend. Currently, our technical studies indicate strong support at $1,275, which is the 0.38% Fibonacci retracement. These studies also indicate that current resistance resides at $1,300 to $1,312 per ounce._
_For those who would like more information, simply use this link._
_Wishing you as always, good trading,_
_By Gary Wagner_


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## alshangiti (4 فبراير 2019)

*(Kitco News) -*Analysts were looking for a break above $1,300 in the near-term and they were not disappointed as prices pushed to an eight-month high after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would halt rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
April gold futures last traded at $1,322.30 an ounce, up more than 1% since last Friday. Last month gold rallied more than 3%, which followed a 4% rally in December. Although gold prices are holding to most of its gains for the week, the market is off its highs and some analysts warn that this could be the start of a modest consolidation period after a two months of higher prices.



Gold’s held on to its weekly gains even after the U.S. Labor Department said that 304,000 jobs were created in January. However, the precious metal was not able to fight against renewed momentum in the manufacturing sector. Gold fell to session lows after the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing index increased to a reading of 56.6%, up from December’s reading of 54.1%.


*Fed Provides Strong Support For Gold But More Is Needed*
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said that a correction following strong gains in December and January would be healthy for the gold market. He added that he could see prices testing initial support around $1,320 an ounce as the market waits for a new spark to ignite gold’s next move its in current uptrend.
The gold market could even fall back and retest support at $1,300 an ounce and still be in a technical uptrend, Hansen said.
Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift should help to support prices in the near-term, but also added that the market needs new information if prices are going to go higher.
“There are still reasons to hold gold, but the gold market needs to see all these risk concerns reflected in the data,” he said. “We need to see weak data push down equity markets and drive gold higher.”
*Geopolitical Risks, Growing Debt Are Gold Positive*
Phillip Streible said that growing geopolitical uncertainty will continue to support gold prices through 2019.
He added that although the government officially reopened Monday, there is still a lingering threat of another shutdown in less than three weeks.
“Gold right now has to switch its focus from exclusively watching the Fed to looking at all the geopolitical risks,” he said. “If there is another government shutdown, volatility will jump higher, pushing equities down and potentially drive gold higher.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management said that with the Federal Reserve decision now over, markets will start to focus on growing risks to the global economy.
“We can see that risks to the global economy are becoming elevated and are going to be hanging around for a while,” he said. “In this environment, I think that there is room for gold to push higher. 
One financial risk that is growing in importance is the continued rise in sovereign debt.
In a recent report, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence said that government debt looks unstoppable.
“Gold is set to resume the almost two-decade-long bull market on the back of the increasing U.S. budget deficit and peaking dollar,” he said.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell even comment on the path of U.S. government debt, saying: “In the long-term, the Federal budget is not on a sustainable path and needs to be addressed.”
Earlier this week, the Congressional Budget Office said that U.S. is expected to increase its debt by 12 trillion between 2020 and 2029. The increase in debt is the results of more spending and slower economic growth, the CBO said in its report.
Peter Grosskopf, CEO of Sprott Inc., said that although he doesn’t pay attention to gold’s daily price action, he said that he sees long-term potential for the yellow metal because of growing sovereign debt around the world.
“We think the Fed is in the box and can’t tighten anymore because of the record amount of debt,” he said. “If you are an investor and don’t have gold in your portfolio now is the time to get in. We are going to start to see some shock waves in financial markets because debt levels are unstainable.


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## alshangiti (18 مارس 2019)

Markets await outcome of U.S. Fed's March 19-20 meeting 
* Gold specs trim net longs for a third straight week 
* SPDR gold holdings slip on Friday 
* Palladium trading near last session's record peak
(Adds comments, updates prices)

By Swati Verma

March 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose for a second straight session on Monday, as the dollar slipped after sombre U.S. data increased chances the Federal Reserve will signal a dovish policy stance at its meeting this week.

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,303.92 per ounce by 0804 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1 percent to $1,303.80.



The U.S. Fed will begin its meeting on interest rates on Tuesday, which ends with a news conference on Wednesday.

"The narrative has completely changed. A year or six months back, people were talking about policy normalisation, and now to be accommodative. With the flow of U.S. data we had, it could be quite supportive for gold," said Hitesh Jain, vice president, Yes Securities.

U.S. manufacturing output fell for a second straight month in February and factory activity in New York state hit nearly a two-year low this month, data showed on Friday, underscoring Fed's "patient" stance towards further interest rate increases this year. Markets currently expect there will be no rate hikes this year, and are even building in bets for a rate cut in 2020. However, if the Fed indicates a possibility of rate cut this year itself then gold prices could skyrocket, Jain said.

The dollar index slid 0.2 percent, having posted its biggest weekly decline since early December last week. "One of the most important drivers for gold is the U.S. dollar strength and the dollar is in turn beholding to the U.S.-China trade negotiations," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets, adding $1,290 and $1,310 are the key support and resistance levels, respectively.

Investors since last year have favoured the dollar as a safe haven against the U.S.-China trade war. Markets have been on the edge as a resolution to the dispute is taking longer than expected. "Dollar positioning into this week's FOMC meeting will likely be the key determinant for precious price action, while Brexit developments will also be closely watched," traders at MKS PAMP wrote in a note.

British Prime Minister Theresa May's government was scrambling on Sunday to get support in parliament for her Brexit deal at the third time of asking. Meanwhile, data on Friday showed speculators have reduced their net long positions in gold for a third straight week and holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, also fell. Among other precious metals, palladium was up 0.1 percent at $1,562.01 per ounce, close to a record peak of $1,567.50 hit in the previous session.

Silver gained 0.4 percent to $15.33 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.5 percent to $832.25.

(Reporting by Swati Verma and K. Sathya Narayanan in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Shreejay Sinha)
outside U.S. +91 80 6749 6356/1298 ; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))


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## alshangiti (1 أبريل 2019)

* Gold specs raise net long positions for 2nd week 
* U.S. February retail sales data due at 1230 GMT 
* GRAPHIC-2019 asset returns: (Updates prices, adds detail and comments)
By Sumita Layek

April 1 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Monday as stock markets rallied after upbeat Chinese economic data soothed some concerns about the global economy and boosted risk appetite, although losses were limited by a sliding dollar.

Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,290.22 per ounce by 1005 GMT, after touching its lowest since March 8 at $1,286.35 on Friday.

U.S. gold futures fell 0.2 percent to $1,295.80 an ounce.

"We have a positive environment in the equity markets so risk is on and that's a negative for gold," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.

Global stocks surged on strong Chinese factory activity data and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations. The dollar index was lower, however, limiting gold's losses as it makes holding the metal cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

"We have to look through the noise and at the bigger picture. We still think the global economy is slowing in the 12-18 month horizon, especially in the U.S., which should help gold in the longer term," Menke said.

Gold has gained more than 11 percent since touching more than 1-1/2-year lows last August on a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve and global growth concerns.

Investors are now waiting for U.S. retail sales and manufacturing PMI data due later in the day.

Global demand for gold in 2019 will rise to the highest in four years as higher consumption by jewellers offsets a fall in purchases by central banks, an industry report said on Monday. Elsewhere, Britain's exit from the European Union was in disarray after the implosion of Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit strategy left her under pressure from rival factions to leave without a deal, go for an election or forge a much softer divorce. Speculators increased their net long position in COMEX gold for the second straight week in the week to March 26, data showed on Friday. "Speculative financial investors were caught on the wrong foot recently," Commerzbank analysts said in a note, adding gold prices have, however, fallen consistently in the meantime.

Among other precious metals, spot palladium was down 0.5 percent at $1,377.21 an ounce, having declined more than 11 percent last week. Silver was down 0.6 percent at $15.05 an ounce, while platinum fell 0.1 percent to $844.35 an ounce.

(Reporting by Sumita Layek in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
Outside U.S. +91 8067491638; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))


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## alshangiti (2 يوليو 2019)

*Editor's Note:* Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today's must-read news stories and expert opinions that moved the precious metals and financial markets_._ *Sign up here!*
Gold prices plunged immediately upon opening Monday morning in Australia. This in response to a perceived favorable outcome of the one-on-one talks between presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the G 20 meetings held in Osaka Japan. The keyword was “truce”, with both sides agreeing not to invoke further escalation of the trade war between our two superpowers. In essence the net result was that both countries pledged to once again begin to trade negotiations at a later date.



As of 4:30 PM EDT gold futures basis the most active August contract is currently at $1386.20, a net decline of $27.50 on the day. After opening in Australia yesterday at $1401.80, traders and market participants increased the pressure taking gold below $1400 per ounce and traded to a low of $1384.70 before prices inched just above the low achieved over the last 24 hours.
This selloff comes in unison with a dramatically higher US dollar and a return to extremely favorable risk on market sentiment taking US equities higher on the day. The Dow Jones industrial average in almost ½ a percent today, and after factoring in the daily gains of 117 points is currently fixed at 26,717.43.


The US dollar gained strength and the index closed today at 96.37 which is a net gain of almost ¾ of a percent. This accounting for a solid percentage of the price decline experienced in gold. Considering that gold futures gave up 1.93%, and the US dollar gained .74%, selling pressure was greater than dollar strength contributing well over 1% to today’s price decline in the precious yellow metal.
As we spoke about on Friday’s recap, a favorable outcome regarding the talks between the United States and China would certainly have a dramatic impact on gold prices as they began their trading week in Australia. That is exactly what traders witnessed with both China and the United States announcing a truce in the current trade war in which both sides vowed to not escalate negative actions and set the tone for negotiators to return to the table.
Our technical studies indicate potential support for gold at two distinct price levels, both based upon Fibonacci retracement price points of this last rally. The lowest we believe this current selling pressure will take gold to is approximately $1350 which is the .618% retracement of the price move from $1292.02 $1442. Above that .38% - .42 % retracement level which comes in at 1379 to $1385 per ounce.
For those who would like more information, simply use this link.
Wishing you as always, good trading,
Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. WagnerBy Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com
Follow @garyswagner

[email protected]


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## alshangiti (2 سبتمبر 2019)

[h=2]AM-PM Roundup[/h]

[h=1]Surging U.S. dollar pressures gold prices in afternoon trading Friday[/h]


Jim Wyckoff _Friday August 30, 2019 13:23_




_Kitco News_
_Share this article:_


_

_​​_*(Kitco News) -* Gold prices are moderately down and have lost late-morning gains in afternoon dealings Friday. A U.S. dollar index that has surged to a 27-month high today is working to pressure the yellow metal on this last trading day of the week and of the month. Still, the bulls are exiting August with a monthly gain of over $90 an ounce. Not bad from the bulls' perspective. December gold was last down $5.20 at $1,531.70._
_By Jim WyckoffFor Kitco News
_


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## alshangiti (17 أكتوبر 2019)

[h=2]Hawaii Six O - Gary Wagner[/h]

[h=1]Gold Gains Ground After U.S. Sales Reports Comes in Under Expectations[/h]


Gary Wagner _Wednesday October 16, 2019 18:58_

_Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk_
_Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists._



_Commentaries & Views_
_Share this article:_


_*Editor's Note: Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today's must-read news stories and expert opinions that moved the precious metals and financial markets. Sign up here!*_
_The entire precious metals complex gained ground today trading moderate to strongly higher. As of 4:45 PM EDT gold futures are trading $10.10 higher which is a net gain of 0.68%, and fixed at $1493.60. Silver and platinum also gained value today, however any price gains were fractional at best with silver gaining 0.15%, and platinum gaining 0.17%._
_

_



_The precious metal that exhibited the strongest upside move continues to be palladium which gained 2.17% in trading today, opening above $1700 and closing at $1733.40, which is a net gain of $36.80 on the day._
_Multiple factors were cited as the underlying forces taking the precious metals complex higher. First and foremost was economic data from the United States as the September U.S. retail sales report showed a contraction of 0.3% from the August numbers. Economists had forecast sales report would actually show expansion and predicted a gain of 0.2%. The fact that the cells report showed a decline from the previous month was the first occurrence of slowing retail data in many months._
_There is continued concern about Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement, or a hard exit. There also continues to be real concern about recent actions by Turkey toward Syria as that geopolitical hotspot have once again got the attention of market participants and traders._
_Most importantly it is now been a few days since Friday when the announcement that the United States and China had reached a tentative partial trade deal simply labeled “phase one”. When the announcement was made on Friday comments on both sides said that it would be signed a fairly soon as soon the details were put to paper. However, that changed when on Monday China signaled that they would not sign any documents without another meeting. This is obviously underlining that there are parts of the agreement that they either wish to be clarified or changed prior to signing the “phase one” agreement._
_Yesterday however, Beijing set a much more optimistic tone when their media stated that both Beijing and Washington are “on the same page”. That optimistic tone was short-lived when today the house passed a bill supporting the protesters in Hong Kong and China issued a statement suggesting that they have backtracked on part of the agreement._
_It was also announced yesterday by Bloomberg News that, “Beijing wants a rollback in tariffs in its trade war with the U.S. before China can feasibly agree to buy as much as $50 billion of American agriculture products that President Donald Trump claims are part of an initial deal, people familiar with the matter said.”_
_It seems now that some time has passed since the announcement was made on Friday that China and the United States had reached a tentative agreement, the devil is certainly in the details. As new content and context emerge it seems that there are still areas that need real clarification. That dampens the probability that the presidents of China and the United States will sign the agreement next month when they meet in Chile at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)._
_For those who would like more information, simply use this link._
_Wishing you as always, good trading_


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## alshangiti (11 ديسمبر 2019)

[h=2]News Bites[/h]

[h=1]Gold prices unchanged following in-line U.S. inflation data[/h]


Neils Christensen _Wednesday December 11, 2019 08:33_




_Kitco News_
_Share this article:_


_*(Kitco News) -*Gold prices are holding steady in positive territory as the latest inflation data holds no surprises for markets._
_Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department said its U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in November, after a 0.4% rise in October. The data was slightly better than expected as consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% rise. For the year, inflation rose 2.1%, up from the previous reading of 1.8%, the report said._
_The report noted that rising energy prices contributed to the higher inflation pressures. The gasoline index rose 1.1% last month._
_Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose by 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. For the year, core inflation is up 2.3%, the report said._

_ADVERTISING_​




_The gold market as seen little movement in initial reaction to the data. February gold futures last traded at $1,470.50 an ounce, up 0.16% on the day._
_According to some economists, gold prices are holding on to modest gains as the inflation data does nothing to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance to leave interest rates at their current low levels._
_The U.S. central bank will release its latest monetary policy decision later this afternoon. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are not expecting to see any move in interest rates._
_

_
_Royce Mendes, senior economist at CIBC noted that headline inflation data rose at its fastest pace since in a year; however, he added that it still shouldn’t have much impact on interest rate expectations._
_“US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, but it shouldn't do much to move markets today,” he sai_


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## alshangiti (10 يونيو 2020)

[h=1]old gains as the Federal Reserve begins this month’s FOMC meeting[/h]


Gary Wagner _Tuesday June 09, 2020 18:17_

_Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk_
_Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists._



_Commentaries & Views_
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_For the next two days, members of the Federal Reserve will convene and start this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting where they will focus upon the current monetary policy of the United States. As always, they will end their meeting on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, or 2 o’clock Eastern standard Time tomorrow._
_

_
_Although anything is possible it is widely expected that they will continue to underscore their current dovish monetary policy. This should include maintaining the Fed’s funds rate near zero. The statement should also contain some verbiage that their policy of quantitative easing will continue, with the Fed offering whatever is needed to continue to grow the economy from the lows reached during the current pandemic._
_It is expected that they will keep current interest rates unchanged at zero to .25%. In terms of their forward guidance there is not expected to be any change, most likely keeping interest rates low until Fed members see specific data that indicates that the United States has successfully weathered the economic turmoil created by the global pandemic and can work to achieve maximum employment and their goal of price stability._



_As far as quantitative easing is concerned the verbiage released in the statement along with Chairman Powell’s press conference should continue to reiterate that the expenditures needed to continue quantitative easing will remain unlimited. Some analysts have estimated that the Federal Reserve will add more treasuries and mortgage backed securities to their balance sheet spending another $1.3 trillion. They’re not expected to change their current dot plot which would put rates effectively at the lower range throughout 2022._
_Although it is almost certain the Federal Reserve will stay the course there are still questions that need to be answered. Hopefully tomorrow’s statement during the press conference will shed light on these issues. First is how the Federal Reserve works with the Main Street facilities to initiate continued lending to businesses._
_As reported in ForexLive, “The program itself is a $600B lending facility for companies with fewer than 15,000 employees and less than $5 billion in revenue. The name of the program is also a bit of a misnomer because you need to borrow at least $500,000, which is eliminates many of companies we think of as 'main street'.”_
_According to the information released by the Federal Reserve the maximum loan size is $25 million for new loans or $4200 million for expanded loans. Lenders will retain 5% of the loan but the rest goes onto the Fed balance sheet with the treasury providing $75 billion for the first (and hopefully the only) losses. All loans must be paid back in four years with no interest for the first year._
_If in fact the outcome of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting sticks closely to the script we could see it continue to be highly supportive of gold pricing._
_ For those who would like more information simply use this link._
_Wishing you as always good trading and good health,_
_

_
_By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com
_


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## alshangiti (10 يونيو 2020)

Gold price kept climbing on Tuesday, surpassing $1,700 an ounce once again, as investors grow hopeful of further monetary policy action from the US Federal Reserve this week.
Spot gold climbed 1.0% to $1,716.73 per ounce by 11:00 a.m. EST, while US gold futures gained 1.2% to $1,719.20 per ounce in New York.
Meanwhile, momentum stalled in risk assets on Tuesday with both European stocks and US futures dropping, while the US dollar strengthened for the first time in nine sessions ahead of the Fed’s two-day gathering.
“The Fed will continue to have uber dovish policies, they will continue to suppress real rates and that’s the main driver for gold purchases over the last few months,” Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, told _Reuters_, adding that the macro implications will continue to support the precious metal.
Bullion fell as much as 2.4% to $1,670.14 on Friday — its lowest in more than a month — as an unexpected surge in US employment numbers for the month of May raised hopes for a quick economic recovery and boosted investor appetite for riskier assets.
However, the uptick in gold could also be of technical nature, says Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
[FONT=&quot]_“THE BREAK BELOW $1,700 ON FRIDAY IS ONCE AGAIN ATTRACTING SOME DEMAND FROM INVESTORS, WHO HAVE BEEN WAITING ON THE SIDELINES FOR A CORRECTION”_[/FONT]
Ole Hansen, analyst, Saxo Bank​“The break below $1,700 on Friday is once again attracting some demand from investors, who have been waiting on the sidelines for a correction,” he added.
“You are seeing some short covering and renewed investment buying from people impressed with the resilience of gold,” David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron, told _Bloomberg_.
Investors now await the decisions to materialize from the US Central Bank’s policy meetings, which will end on Wednesday. Analysts believe this may leave the door open for further stimulus, but interest rates are expected remain above zero.
Elsewhere, spot silver declined 0.3% to $17.73 an ounce, platinum advanced 0.2% to $842.00 and palladium slid 3.7% to $1,946.50.
_(With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)_


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## alshangiti (23 يونيو 2020)

[h=1]Gold price closes in on 8-year high after $1.7bn ETF bets[/h]MINING.com Editor | June 22, 2020 | 9:37 am Intelligence Markets USA Gold 

Gold prices continued to rally on Monday, heading toward the highest since February 2012, after massive inflows into gold-backed ETFs in the US.
Gold for delivery in August, the most active contract on the Comex market in New York, touched a high of $1,779 an ounce, the highest since February 2012.
The World Gold Council reported that Friday saw a massive 27.3 tonnes (974,000 ounces worth more than $1.7 billion at today’s prices) inflow into gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs).
The world’s largest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Shares or GLD – received the lion’s share with Friday inflows of 23.1 tonnes or 742,492 ounces, coinciding with the expiry of June GLD options.



According to a note from BMO Capital Markets, Friday’s haul takes month to date inflows to 55.6 tonnes (1.96m ounces), with the vast majority of this coming from North America.
Gold prices have rallied over 16% so far this year, supported by the rolling out of massive monetary stimulus from central banks around the world in response to the economic fallout of the covid-19 pandemic.
[FONT=&quot]_ON SUNDAY, THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION REPORTED A RECORD JUMP IN GLOBAL INFECTIONS, WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASES SEEN IN NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA_​​Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset for global investors during times of economic turmoil, and with the number of coronavirus cases exploding in some parts after governments began to loosen their lockdown protocols, overall economic uncertainty remains high.
On Sunday, the World Health Organization reported a record jump in global infections, with the biggest increases seen in North and South America.
Additional monetary stimulus to combat the pandemic, including the Bank of England’s bond buying program announced last week, could lend further support to bullion as a hedge against inflation.
“Gold appears poised for breakout,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets in London, said in an emailed note to _Bloomberg__._
_“While gold is undoubtedly boosted by haven flows due to the economic damage caused by the pandemic as well as concerns over a second wave, there is little doubt that the metal is also finding good support from central bank money flooding the financial markets.”_​_Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, shares a similar sentiment:_
_“Covid-19 worries together with the eventual inflationary impact of central bank stimulus are providing the support for gold._​[/FONT]


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## alshangiti (13 يوليو 2020)

[h=1]Record-highs in sight': Gold on path north of $1,800 next week — analysts[/h]


Anna Golubova _Friday July 10, 2020 13:38_




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_



_
_(Kitco News) Gold is rallying for the fifth week in a row and the bullish trend is targeting the 2011 record-highs in USD-terms, according to analysts._
_At the time of writing, gold was holding on above $1,800 an ounce with August Comex gold futures trading at $1,808.30, up 0.25% on the day._
_Investors seem to be torn between hopes of an economic recovery and the worrying number of rising coronavirus cases in the U.S., which could slow everything down again._
_The U.S. reported 60,000 new cases on Thursday — a new daily record high. Despite the bullish trend in gold, equities climbed higher Friday, largely ignoring the COVID-19 concerns._
_"Reopening might be not as quickly as people thought. Could see more closures in states like Florida and Texas. Plus, other countries could be more cautious when reopening based on the U.S. experience …. We could see the economy suffer and see lousy numbers into August and September," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News on Friday._
_Temporary consolidation around the $1,800 level is not being ruled out by analysts, who said that any dip in prices will be bought as the precious metal ultimately heads higher._
_"For now, we might consolidate near the current levels. But the tilt is to the upside. The reason for that is that the economic recovery maybe somewhat slower. The reality is that risk appetite might not move higher forever. And that realization will be solidified and the Fed is going to end up doing more, not less," said Melek. "Gold will consolidate here and move higher."_
_Gold holding above $1,800 an ounce this week is a very bullish trend, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. "We haven't seen these levels in nine years, so I expect that we will test support a few times," Millman said._
_*Gold is going north of $1,800*_
_Gold prices are heading further north of $1,800 next week, analysts pointed out. "It looks like we are on our way to test those all-time highs around $1,900," said Millman, adding that the new support level for next week is $1,800._
_"All of the factors that were supporting gold a year ago are all still present. None have improved or changed. I expect gold to be higher going forward in the second half of 2020," he added._
_Gold's record-high of $1,921 from September 2011 is now in sight, said ABN Amro senior FX and precious metals strategist Georgette Boele._
_"Against the dollar, gold's all-time high of USD 1,921 is now within reach. The stars are aligned for gold prices to continue to rise. Aggressive monetary policy easing, ultra-low interest rates, negative U.S. real yields, fiscal stimulus and the technical outlook all support gold prices," Boele said this week. _
_Another bullish call was issued by FXTM's market analyst Han Tan: "Given subdued U.S. real yields and the stubborn risk aversion in the markets, this is clearly a supportive environment for Gold, with a repeat of the September 5, 2011 record closing price of $1900.20 in its sights."_
_Melek is also optimistic on gold for next week. "We are likely to test $1,829-30 on futures. Wouldn't be surprised if we go into $1,840s on weak data," Melek said. On the low-end, Melek is watching $1,790._
_The next resistance level for LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss is $1,830. "I am looking for gold to push higher next week. Don't think we'll break the uptrend."_
_Nedoss said the fear trade is kicking in and new buyers are turning to gold as part of their portfolio diversification during these uncertain times._
_"Gold up 15%-16% on the year. It is seeing a resurgence as an asset class. Traditional 60%-40% portfolios are split between stocks and bonds. Now, you are seeing precious metals work their way in. People put more gold into their portfolio mix — just look at the ETFs inflows. What I am gleaning from that is gold is being gadded in portfolios for protection," Nedoss said. _
_*Data to watch*_
_Regarding the macroeconomic data, there is fear building that the U.S. recovery is stalling past June, said Capital Economics senior U.S. economist Michael Pearce._
_"A growing range of indicators suggest the economic recovery stalled in late-June and early July, in part because of a resurgence in virus infections. There's clearly a risk that the virus continues spreading unchecked over the coming weeks, pushing the recovery into reverse," Pearce said on Friday._
_But it might not all be about the re-infection rate, the economist added, noting that the U.S. might just be entering a new phase of the recovery, which will be "slower and more fitful."_
_There are a few important releases on the agenda next week, including U.S. CPI number from June on Tuesday, U.S. industrial production data from June on Wednesday, U.S. retail sales from June on Thursday, the ECB rate announcement on Thursday, U.S. jobless claims on Thursday, as well as the U.S. building permits and housing starts from June on Friday._
_Another key element to pay attention to starting next week is the U.S. earnings season, which could present a bleak picture of the economy._
_"While global equities blissfully ignored the deteriorating economic conditions around the world in the previous quarter, the moment of reckoning could arrive when the U.S. earnings season kicks off next week. The second-quarter results are set to lay bare the pandemic's impact to a greater extent compared to the previous quarter's figures and this could prove to be one of Wall Street's worst earnings seasons. It remains to be seen whether market participants have the stomach to digest such despairing numbers," Tan said on Friday._
_By Anna GolubovaFor Kitco News
_


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## alshangiti (29 يوليو 2020)




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## alshangiti (29 يوليو 2020)




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## alshangiti (29 يوليو 2020)

[h=1]$2000 Gold may be closer than you think[/h]


Gary Wagner _Tuesday July 28, 2020 18:07_

_Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk_
_Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists._



_Commentaries & Views_
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_If the futures market is any indication of where traders think gold is going, then $2000 gold might be much, much closer than we think. Currently the December contract of Comex gold futures are trading at $1971.40, which is a net increase of $16 on the day. Considering the speed at which gold pricing has accelerated to the upside, $2000 per ounce could become a reality much sooner than you think._
_While many analysts including myself, forecasted $1800 gold, and then $1900 gold immediately following gold breaking above $1800. But we missed the boat in terms of how quickly gold would ascend to those price points._
_The fact is since mid-March of this year gold has increased by approximately $500 in value. More importantly during the month of July gold’s assent went from a steep upside angle to a parabolic rise beginning on July 16. From July 17 to today we have seen gold futures gain approximately $150._
_When you compare the rise of gold following the conclusion of the multiyear correction at the end of 2015, it would take gold 3 ½ years to gain $500 in value. The 3 ½ year rally took gold prices from a low of $1045 in November 2015 to just over $1500 during the week of August 8, 2019. This was the first-time gold at a value of $1500 per ounce since it broke below $1530 during the first week of April in 2013._



_This comparison clearly illustrates how quickly gold prices have risen. The former rise in gold pricing resulting in a $500 gained per ounce took over 3 ½ years to accomplish, and in this most current instance was accomplished the same $500 rise in a little over four months._
_The real question becomes what does this mean for the future price of gold, and more specifically how much higher can gold pricing go. The short answer is gold could trade significantly higher than current pricing. Fundamentally speaking the events that have taken gold significantly higher in such a short span of time have not come to any resolution._
_The global pandemic which has created the new normal we live in today forced the hands of every major central bank in the world to have an extremely accommodative monetary policy that would include interest rates either near zero, and in some cases negative as well as massive amounts of quantitative easing to provide the needed liquidity and capital for economies worldwide to stabilize._
_The Federal Reserve added $3 trillion to their balance sheets through purchases of mortgage backed securities, U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds. The “Cares Act” passed by the House and Senate allocated an additional $3 trillion in aid to both individuals and businesses alike._
_Now that the aid which is been available through the “Cares Act” will conclude at the end of this month the House and Senate are negotiating the next round of aid called the “HEALS Act” needed to stave off further economic contraction. The longer the United States government is forced to allocate massive aid the more likely it is that we will see gold pricing continue to rise._
_Technically speaking it is very difficult to utilize traditional forecasting tools. Market technicians rely heavily upon historical data to forecast where prices might go. That being said with gold pricing at all-time record highs these models are simply unavailable. However, one technique that is still available is to utilize a combination of Fibonacci extensions and Elliott wave theory._
_The chart attached is a forecast for gold based upon that technique. The data suggests that this current rally could easily surpass $2000 per ounce, and is most likely to reach $2100 or higher by the conclusion of this rally._
_



_
_For those who would like more information on our services simply use this link._
_Wishing you as always good trading and good health,_
_By Gary WagnerContributing to kitco.com
_


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## alshangiti (11 أكتوبر 2020)

[h=1]hy fourteen-day quarantines may be damaging to miners' health[/h]


Michael McCrae _Friday October 09, 2020 20:09_




_Kitco News_
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_Frequent quarantine stays could be hard on a miner's well being, warns the CEO of Fireweed Zinc, Brandon Macdonald._
_Macdonald joined Kitco correspondent Paul Harris; editor Neils Christensen; and mining audiences manager, Michael McCrae, to record a podcast on Friday._
_Macdonald noted that some miners travel outside of Canada for work then have to return to a 14-day quarantine with no access to a gym or recreation. Meals must be eaten in the hotel room._
_"So they're three-weeks on and two-weeks off. They come back to Canada and [start] a 14-day quarantine. Rinse and repeat. How sustainable is this?" asked Macdonald._
_Harris noted that some mining companies are providing counseling to workers who travel off-site._
_Macdonald noted that Fireweed operations are in Western Canada._
_The group also discussed the Northern Star and Saracen merger, the biggest deal in the gold space in the past two years. The deal is valued at A$5.76 billion ($4.14 billion) and the newly-formed entity will be a global top-10 gold miner by market value. The panel also turned to Osisko Gold Royalties and its spin out of its Barkerville project._


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## alshangiti (24 نوفمبر 2020)

Gold fell to its lowest in four-months on Monday as growing optimism over a covid-19 vaccine and signs of recovery in the US economy drove investors away from the safe-haven metal and towards riskier assets.

Spot gold declined 1.6% to $1,839.57 per ounce by 1 p.m. in New York, having fallen by as much as 2% earlier in the day. US gold futures were down 1.9% to $1,836.20 per ounce.

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Bullion extended last week’s loss after AstraZeneca said its vaccine prevented most people from developing the coronavirus, marking another promising development in the quest to end the pandemic.
Meanwhile, US business activity powered ahead in November at the fastest pace since March 2015, IHS Markit figures showed.




Gold prices have already posted two straight weekly declines, and holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal have slipped recently as hopes for a vaccine buoyed markets and curbed demand for haven assets.
Gold’s break below $1,850 triggered a wave of sell stops, according to Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.
“Gold prices broke through technical support, catalyzing a rush to the exits,” Daniel Ghali, a TD Securities strategist, echoed the same sentiment.
“For weeks, capital outflows from ETFs have added pressure to gold markets as a second wave sweeps across the globe, keeping inflation expectations capped, while the vaccine announcements have also seen safe-haven flows reverse,” Ghali added.
“Gold broke below the key $1,850 level after an unbelievably strong US PMI release just dampened the need for stimulus. No one was expecting such strong readings in both services and manufacturing,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, told _Reuters_.
Gold, traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has gained over 21% this year, benefiting from the economic damage from the pandemic and the ensuing global stimulus measures.
_(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)_


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## alshangiti (2 يونيو 2021)

Will gold continue ‘stellar performance’? It all depends on this, says Gary Wagner​



David Lin  Tuesday June 01, 2021 18:59

Kitco News
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Gold’s surge to $1,900 an ounce this past month was due largely in part to U.S. dollar weakness, which itself is a function of fiscal spending from the U.S. government as part of Biden’s infrastructure bills.
“There is now talk about the Democratic party in the United States pushing this [infrastructure] bill through without Republican support. If that happens, of course, that will take the dollar even lower. As we spend and as we create debt, it has to put internal pressure on on our currency, and that’s what we are witnessing,” Wager told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
For more information on silver and copper, watch the video above.
By David Lin
For Kitco News


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